The model missed the final outcome (Voința Crevedia win 1–6).
The model had projected Râmnicu Sărat at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Râmnicu Sărat Voința Crevedia ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-6 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Râmnicu Sărat | 36.1% | 31.1% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.2% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Voința Crevedia | 34.2% | 44.7% | -10.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Voința Crevedia's win probability at 44.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Voința Crevedia win 1–6.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Voința Crevedia than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Râmnicu Sărat by 10.5 percentage points (46.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Râmnicu Sărat 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Voința Crevedia 34.2%
- xG · Râmnicu Sărat 1.32 — Voința Crevedia 1.28
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Râmnicu Sărat 2.88 · Draw 3.70 · Voința Crevedia 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · Râmnicu Sărat 31.1% · Draw 24.2% · Voința Crevedia 44.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Râmnicu Sărat 2.88 · Draw 3.70 · Voința Crevedia 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · Râmnicu Sărat 31.1% · Draw 24.2% · Voința Crevedia 44.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Voința Crevedia win · 1–6
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Voința Crevedia win · Râmnicu Sărat 1–6 Voința Crevedia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
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{
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{
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},
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"text": "+3.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0374,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10033.66,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.045,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.5,
"text": "-4.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"sort_key": 1788.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.5,
"hero_label": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"market_team": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.045,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.5,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.045,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat 1.32 xG vs Voin\u021ba Crevedia 1.28 \u2192 R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat 36.1%",
"Market: Voin\u021ba Crevedia ~31.1% implied",
"Market Steam: R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.04,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"market_prob": 31.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.46,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"market_prob": 44.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.4,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.4,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.56,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.56,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"market_prob_pct": 44.74,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Voin\u021ba Crevedia\u0027s win probability at 44.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 10.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat 1.32 xG vs Voin\u021ba Crevedia 1.28 \u2192 R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat 36.1%",
"Market: Voin\u021ba Crevedia ~31.1% implied",
"Market Steam: R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.5,
"hero_label": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Voin\u021ba Crevedia is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Voin\u021ba Crevedia than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Voin\u021ba Crevedia than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Voin\u021ba Crevedia than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Voin\u021ba Crevedia is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Voin\u021ba Crevedia more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Voin\u021ba Crevedia (pricing gap 10.5 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Voin\u021ba Crevedia higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.04,
"edge_pp": 5.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"market_prob_pct": 31.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.46,
"edge_pp": 5.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.5,
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"market_prob_pct": 44.74,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Voin\u021ba Crevedia than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Voin\u021ba Crevedia (31.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, Market \u2192 Voin\u021ba Crevedia, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"closing_odds": 2.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vointa-crevedia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"away_team_id": 26678,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26678.webp",
"away_team_name": "Voin\u021ba Crevedia",
"away_team_public_id": "306ykXUL9TEW5a",
"away_team_slug": "vointa-crevedia",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1633111,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"home_team_id": 6897,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6897.webp",
"home_team_name": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"home_team_public_id": "58apZQcPLQKJJd",
"home_team_slug": "ramnicu-sarat",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ramnicu-sarat",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga III - Serie 3 Romania",
"league_id": 786,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/786.webp",
"league_name": "Liga III - Serie 3 Romania",
"league_public_id": "3YutNebRTztRYS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-23 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1XSOkYBZRJeThW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3791,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0398,
"ev": -0.1848,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4474,
"draw": 0.2419,
"home": 0.3107
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4076
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2753,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.2419,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4474,
"draw": 0.2419,
"home": 0.3107
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2569
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4161,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4474,
"draw": 0.2419,
"home": 0.3107
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3316
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1576,
"ev": -0.3152,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0264,
"ev": 0.0977,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": 0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1174,
"alpha_yes": 0.1614,
"best_no_odd": 2.28,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0456,
"edge_yes": -0.0456,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0374,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0606,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0843,
"implied_no": 0.4094,
"implied_yes": 0.5906,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1174,
"best_odd": 2.265,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5833
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4147,
"p_final_yes": 0.5833,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2115,
"alpha_under": 0.1538,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": -0.094,
"edge_under": 0.094,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1065,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0409,
"implied_over": 0.576,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5789,
"implied_under": 0.424,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4211,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2115,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.5789,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5584
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1538,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.436
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5584,
"p_final_under": 0.436,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.5,
"summary": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat, but the model still strongly favours R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.045,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
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"deviation_pct": -2.2,
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},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"hero_display_pick": null,
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},
"match_id": 1633111,
"match_regime": {
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"probabilities": {
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"teams": {
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"home": "R\u00e2mnicu S\u0103rat"
},
"top_pick": {
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
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"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
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"raw_edge_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.0394,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1633111,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T13:59:29.880025+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga III - Serie 3 Romania — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Berca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Tunari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Blejoi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Plopeni | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Progresul Draganesti | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Voința Crevedia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Pucioasa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Urban Titu | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Râmnicu Sărat | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 6 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 16 |
| 2 | Blejoi | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Berca | 6 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 4 | Tunari | 6 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Voința Crevedia | 6 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Progresul Draganesti | 6 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Urban Titu | 6 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Pucioasa | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Plopeni | 6 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Râmnicu Sărat | 6 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 6 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 2 |
