AI correctly predicted the Saipa win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Saipa Saipa ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mes Kerman | 32.9% | 29.8% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.9% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Saipa | 37.5% | 37.3% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Saipa win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Saipa win 0–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mes Kerman 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Saipa 37.6%
- xG · Mes Kerman 1.25 — Saipa 1.35
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mes Kerman 2.99 · Draw 2.71 · Saipa 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · Mes Kerman 29.8% · Draw 32.9% · Saipa 37.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mes Kerman 2.99 · Draw 2.71 · Saipa 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · Mes Kerman 29.8% · Draw 32.9% · Saipa 37.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Saipa win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
83/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.71
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Saipa win · Mes Kerman 0–1 Saipa
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1057,
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},
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],
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
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"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Saipa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Saipa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Saipa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1057,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "0/3",
"breadth_ratio": 0.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 72,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.28,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -1.0%",
"steam_team": "Mes Kerman",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4315,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Saipa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Saipa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Saipa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1057,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mes Kerman 1.25 xG vs Saipa 1.35 \u2192 Saipa 37.5%",
"Market: Saipa ~37.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Mes Kerman \u2193 -1.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Saipa, but sharp money moved toward Mes Kerman.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.04,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Mes Kerman",
"market_prob": 29.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.28,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Saipa",
"market_prob": 37.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.44,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.44,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.89,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Mes Kerman"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Saipa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 72,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mes Kerman 1.25 xG vs Saipa 1.35 \u2192 Saipa 37.5%",
"Market: Saipa ~37.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Mes Kerman \u2193 -1.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Saipa, but sharp money moved toward Mes Kerman.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.28,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Mes Kerman odds shortened \u2193 -1.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Mes Kerman, with odds shortening by 1.0%. Confirmation remains limited (0/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Mes Kerman, with odds shortening by 1.0%. Confirmation remains limited (0/3 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Mes Kerman has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 1.0%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (0/3), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.04,
"edge_pp": 3.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mes Kerman",
"market_prob_pct": 29.81,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.28,
"edge_pp": -3.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.24,
"edge_pp": 0.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Saipa",
"market_prob_pct": 37.3,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Saipa (37.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Saipa, Market \u2192 Saipa, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.9,
"closing_odds": 2.71,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.9,
"entry_odds": 2.71,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "0/3",
"current_odds": 3.08,
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.0%",
"open_odds": 3.11,
"pick_team": "Mes Kerman",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Mes Kerman",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "saipa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Saipa",
"away_team_id": 2736,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2736.webp",
"away_team_name": "Saipa",
"away_team_public_id": "3Swf5emIhzYKuo",
"away_team_slug": "saipa",
"country_code": "IR",
"country_display_name": "Iran",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ir.svg",
"country_id": 75,
"country_name": "Iran",
"fixture_id": 1632801,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iran",
"home_team_display_name": "Mes Kerman",
"home_team_id": 2718,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2718.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mes Kerman",
"home_team_public_id": "47NII3MW0SwKEn",
"home_team_slug": "mes-kerman",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mes-kerman",
"league_country": "Iran",
"league_country_display": "Iran",
"league_display_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_id": 291,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/291.webp",
"league_name": "Azadegan League",
"league_public_id": "2xgV5HSTOHOOvT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 12:30:00",
"public_id": "4gszNJmKKBkhbc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4482,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.373,
"draw": 0.3289,
"home": 0.2981
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3742
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4275,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.373,
"draw": 0.3289,
"home": 0.2981
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3147
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4294,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.2981,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.373,
"draw": 0.3289,
"home": 0.2981
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3113
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0428,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0734,
"ev": -0.1988,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1894,
"alpha_yes": 0.1378,
"best_no_odd": 1.5,
"best_yes_odd": 2.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1544,
"edge_yes": 0.1544,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3175,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1273,
"ev_yes": 0.2862,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.032,
"implied_no": 0.6094,
"implied_yes": 0.3906,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1894,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1273,
"implied_prob": 0.6114,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5818
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.3886,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4101
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5818,
"p_final_yes": 0.4101,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1321,
"alpha_under": 0.1816,
"best_over_odd": 2.97,
"best_under_odd": 1.33,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.97,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.3,
"edge_over": 0.1711,
"edge_under": -0.1711,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4315,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0261,
"ev_under": -0.3111,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1377,
"implied_over": 0.3109,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3044,
"implied_under": 0.6891,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6956,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1321,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0261,
"implied_prob": 0.3044,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3279
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1816,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.6956,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6633
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3279,
"p_final_under": 0.6633,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4315,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4315,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4315,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 32,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Saipa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Saipa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Saipa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +43.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +43.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +43.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "32 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+43.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 72,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Mes Kerman, but the model still strongly favours Saipa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1057,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Saipa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0215,
"market_prob": 0.3886,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1894,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1273,
"implied_prob": 0.6114,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5818
},
"p_final": 0.4101,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.032,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1378,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.032,
"implied_prob": 0.3886,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4101
}
},
"edge": 0.1544,
"ev": 0.2862,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1321,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0234,
"market_prob": 0.3044,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1321,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": -0.0261,
"implied_prob": 0.3044,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3279
},
"p_final": 0.3279,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0261,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1816,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0322,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.6956,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6633
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1711,
"ev": 0.4315,
"implied_prob": 0.3109,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632801,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4315,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4315,
"implied_prob": 0.3109,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.4315,
"implied_prob": 0.3109,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Saipa",
"home": "Mes Kerman"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.155979,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2862,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1057,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.373,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1021,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632801,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T12:29:07.662987+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Azadegan League — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Fard Alborz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Niroye Zamini | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Ario Eslamshahr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Havadar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Fard Alborz | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | Novin Ahvaz | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 8 | Niroye Zamini | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Mes Kerman | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Ario Eslamshahr | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Mes Rafsanjan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Havadar | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
