AI correctly predicted the Marines win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Marines Marines ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marines | 37.5% | 42.6% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 38.3% | -8.7 pp | Market Higher |
| AS Kigali | 32.9% | 19.1% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates AS Kigali's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.1%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Marines win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on AS Kigali.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Marines more conservatively (23.7% vs model 37.5%, 13.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Marines win 2–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Marines 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · AS Kigali 32.9%
- xG · Marines 1.35 — AS Kigali 1.25
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Marines 2.11 · Draw 2.35 · AS Kigali 4.72
- Implied 1X2 · Marines 42.6% · Draw 38.3% · AS Kigali 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Marines 2.11 · Draw 2.35 · AS Kigali 4.72
- Implied 1X2 · Marines 42.6% · Draw 38.3% · AS Kigali 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Marines win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
31/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.72
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Marines win · Marines 2–0 AS Kigali
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1447,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4265,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0032,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Marines",
"sort_key": 5202.56,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.79,
"hero_label": "AS Kigali",
"market_prob_pct": 42.6,
"market_team": "Marines",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Marines",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marines)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marines)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marines at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marines as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marines",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Marines \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632468 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marines).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1447,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4265,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47393364928909953,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.79,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.79,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Marines",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marines)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marines)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marines at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marines as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marines",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Marines \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632468 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marines).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1447,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4265,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47393364928909953,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Marines 1.35 xG vs AS Kigali 1.25 \u2192 Marines 37.5%",
"Market: Marines ~42.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Marines +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Marines with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Marines",
"market_prob": 42.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.68,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 38.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.79,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "AS Kigali",
"market_prob": 19.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.85,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.85,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.04,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.04,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "AS Kigali",
"market_prob_pct": 19.06,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Marines"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates AS Kigali\u0027s win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 19.1%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.79,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Marines",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Marines \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Marines 1.35 xG vs AS Kigali 1.25 \u2192 Marines 37.5%",
"Market: Marines ~42.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Marines +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Marines with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.79,
"hero_label": "AS Kigali",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Marines has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on AS Kigali.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Marines.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on AS Kigali.",
"However, Marines has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Marines."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors AS Kigali more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Marines has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Marines."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.79,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "AS Kigali",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.8,
"lead": "The model rates AS Kigali considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.11,
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Marines",
"market_prob_pct": 42.65,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.68,
"edge_pp": -8.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.79,
"edge_pp": 13.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "AS Kigali",
"market_prob_pct": 19.06,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Marines.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Marines (42.6%).",
"Marines \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.19,
"closing_odds": 4.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.19,
"entry_odds": 4.72,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "Marines",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Marines",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "AS Kigali",
"away_team_id": 5310,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5310.webp",
"away_team_name": "AS Kigali",
"away_team_public_id": "2ubVpOgmdHKMdX",
"away_team_slug": "as-kigali",
"country_code": "RW",
"country_display_name": "Rwanda",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/rw.svg",
"country_id": 133,
"country_name": "Rwanda",
"fixture_id": 1632468,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Rwanda",
"home_team_display_name": "Marines",
"home_team_id": 5318,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5318.webp",
"home_team_name": "Marines",
"home_team_public_id": "5s5KTQt0uGNH5X",
"home_team_slug": "marines",
"league_country": "Rwanda",
"league_country_display": "Rwanda",
"league_display_name": "Liga Bola Sepak Kebangsaan Rwanda",
"league_id": 405,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/405.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Bola Sepak Kebangsaan Rwanda",
"league_public_id": "26TZa1lDEazopQ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3fXRGxrBOc7K1J",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Gisenyi",
"venue_name": "Umuganda Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1586,
"best_odd": 4.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.1906,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1906,
"draw": 0.3829,
"home": 0.4265
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2125
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3911,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.1804,
"implied_prob": 0.3829,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1906,
"draw": 0.3829,
"home": 0.4265
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3488
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4157,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1447,
"implied_prob": 0.4265,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1906,
"draw": 0.3829,
"home": 0.4265
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4053
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.72,
"edge": 0.1168,
"ev": 0.5515,
"implied_prob": 0.2119,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.1299,
"ev": -0.3053,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.0983,
"ev": -0.2074,
"implied_prob": 0.4739,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2134,
"alpha_yes": 0.194,
"best_no_odd": 1.68,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0904,
"edge_yes": 0.0904,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2356,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.122,
"ev_yes": 0.1173,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0535,
"implied_no": 0.5454,
"implied_yes": 0.4546,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.122,
"implied_prob": 0.5469,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5273
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4709
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5273,
"p_final_yes": 0.4709,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1561,
"alpha_under": 0.2147,
"best_over_odd": 2.49,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.28,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.48,
"edge_over": 0.0885,
"edge_under": -0.0885,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2002,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0711,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1306,
"implied_over": 0.3935,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3936,
"implied_under": 0.6065,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6064,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1561,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0711,
"implied_prob": 0.3936,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4074
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1306,
"implied_prob": 0.6064,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5874
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4074,
"p_final_under": 0.5874,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5515,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2002,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marines)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2002,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Marines at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Marines as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Marines",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Marines \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.22 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632468 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.22 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +20.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Marines).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1447,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4265,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47393364928909953,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1447,
"implied_prob": 0.4265,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Marines"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.4531,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0196,
"ev": -0.122,
"implied_prob": 0.5469,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5273
},
"p_final": 0.4709,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0535,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.194,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.4531,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4709
}
},
"edge": 0.0904,
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1561,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0138,
"market_prob": 0.3936,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1561,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0711,
"implied_prob": 0.3936,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4074
},
"p_final": 0.4074,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0711,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1306,
"implied_prob": 0.6064,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5874
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0885,
"ev": 0.2002,
"implied_prob": 0.3935,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632468,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2002,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4546,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "AS Kigali",
"home": "Marines"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.067547,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2002,
"implied_prob": 0.3935,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1447,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4265,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47393364928909953,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2073,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632468,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:01:17.614131+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Bola Sepak Kebangsaan Rwanda — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | APR FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Mukura | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Marines | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Police | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Gorilla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Musanze | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sunrise | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Rayon Sports | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | AS Kigali | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 | APR FC | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Marines | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Amagaju | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Mukura | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Police | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Gorilla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Musanze | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunrise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Rayon Sports | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Kiyovu Sports | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Gasogi United | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | AS Kigali | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
