The model missed the final outcome (Sportivo Ameliano win 1–0).
The model had projected Club Sportivo San Lorenzo at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Club Sportivo San Lorenzo Sportivo Ameliano ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Ameliano | 32.9% | 57.5% | -24.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.5% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 37.5% | 18.0% | +19.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Sportivo Ameliano's win probability at 57.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 24.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Sportivo Ameliano win 1–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Club Sportivo San Lorenzo by 24.6 percentage points (62.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 37.6%
- xG · Sportivo Ameliano 1.25 — Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 1.35
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sportivo Ameliano 1.65 · Draw 3.87 · Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 5.26
- Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 57.5% · Draw 24.5% · Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 18.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sportivo Ameliano 1.65 · Draw 3.87 · Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 5.26
- Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 57.5% · Draw 24.5% · Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 18.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sportivo Ameliano win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sportivo Ameliano win · Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Club Sportivo San Lorenzo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sportivo Ameliano or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
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"winner_name": "Sportivo Ameliano"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
"market_comparison": [
{
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}
],
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"label": "Away",
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"prob_edge": 18.6,
"value_pct": 97.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sportivo Ameliano or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sportivo Ameliano or Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sportivo Ameliano or Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 97.7,
"implied_prob": 19.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 5.26
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 18.03,
"draw": 24.5,
"home": 57.47
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 19:00:35",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 18:31:26",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"gap_pp": -24.6,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.5,
"gap_pp": 5.06,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.03,
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"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.61,
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"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.39,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
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{
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{
"closing": 1.93,
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{
"closing": 1.9,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"alpha": 0.2181,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4939,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2181,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.495
},
"p_final": 0.505,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0137,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0606,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2181,
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"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.4939,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.505
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1537,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0736,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.4,
"text": "+7.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0736,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10216.24,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.26,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0936,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.4,
"text": "+9.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0936,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.4,
"text": "+9.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9762,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"sort_key": 10084.24,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2346,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0011,
"edge_pp": 0.1,
"market_prob": 0.4772,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2346,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.4772,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4783
},
"p_final": 0.4783,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0601,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0672,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.258,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5228,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5216
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0264,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0417,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0264,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1793.4,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -15.8%",
"alert_team": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 24.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.62,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"market_prob_pct": 18.0,
"market_team": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.976,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Sportivo San Lorenzo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Sportivo San Lorenzo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Club Sportivo San Lorenzo \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.63 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +98% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632003 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.63 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +98% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0936,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 5.26,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19011406844106465,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9762,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (25 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 24.62,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 24.62,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -15.8%",
"steam_team": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.976,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Sportivo San Lorenzo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Sportivo San Lorenzo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Club Sportivo San Lorenzo \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.63 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +98% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632003 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.63 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +98% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0936,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 5.26,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19011406844106465,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9762,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Ameliano 1.25 xG vs Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 1.35 \u2192 Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 37.5%",
"Market: Sportivo Ameliano ~18.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Club Sportivo San Lorenzo \u2193 -15.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Club Sportivo San Lorenzo, but market pricing diverges by 25 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -24.62,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"market_prob": 57.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.11,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.51,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"market_prob": 18.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.28,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.28,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.49,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -24.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"market_prob_pct": 57.47,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sportivo Ameliano\u0027s win probability at 57.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 24.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 24.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 18.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+19.5 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Ameliano 1.25 xG vs Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 1.35 \u2192 Club Sportivo San Lorenzo 37.5%",
"Market: Sportivo Ameliano ~18.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Club Sportivo San Lorenzo \u2193 -15.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Club Sportivo San Lorenzo, but market pricing diverges by 25 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.62,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo odds shortened \u2193 -15.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 24.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"largest_gap_pp": -24.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sportivo Ameliano higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 24.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -24.62,
"edge_pp": -24.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"market_prob_pct": 57.47,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.11,
"edge_pp": 5.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 19.51,
"edge_pp": 19.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"market_prob_pct": 18.03,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sportivo Ameliano (18.0%).",
"However, Club Sportivo San Lorenzo has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -15.8%, 6/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Club Sportivo San Lorenzo, Market \u2192 Sportivo Ameliano, Recent sharp money \u2192 Club Sportivo San Lorenzo.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.61,
"closing_odds": 1.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.61,
"entry_odds": 1.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Club Sportivo San Lorenzo (15.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.26",
"4.63",
"4.00"
],
"display": "5.50 \u2192 4.00 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"pick_team": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
5.26,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,7.3 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.26"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Club Sportivo San Lorenzo \u2193 -15.8% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Club Sportivo San Lorenzo \u2193 -15.8% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.8%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.8%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_team_name": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 24.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "club-sp-san-lorenzo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"away_team_id": 2125,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2125.webp",
"away_team_name": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"away_team_public_id": "1szBNjFs6LlVW5",
"away_team_slug": "club-sp-san-lorenzo",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1632003,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"home_team_id": 10487,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10487.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sportivo Ameliano",
"home_team_public_id": "49999cRBICVzjQ",
"home_team_slug": "sportivo-ameliano",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sportivo-ameliano",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional \u2013 Clausura",
"league_id": 252,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional \u2013 Clausura",
"league_public_id": "0YxCMpiFeGF6D6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 19:00:00",
"public_id": "5mFTj64Vx1ubcr",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Arsenio Erico"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1414,
"best_odd": 5.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0936,
"implied_prob": 0.1803,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1803,
"draw": 0.245,
"home": 0.5747
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.2079
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2772,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": 0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.245,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1803,
"draw": 0.245,
"home": 0.5747
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2591
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3786,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0931,
"ev": -0.2054,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1803,
"draw": 0.245,
"home": 0.5747
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.4816
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.26,
"edge": 0.1855,
"ev": 0.976,
"implied_prob": 0.1901,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0372,
"ev": 0.1441,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.2774,
"ev": -0.4576,
"implied_prob": 0.6061,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2181,
"alpha_yes": 0.2181,
"best_no_odd": 1.86,
"best_yes_odd": 1.97,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0549,
"edge_yes": 0.0549,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1537,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1016,
"ev_yes": 0.0736,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0606,
"implied_no": 0.5099,
"implied_yes": 0.4901,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2181,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.495
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2181,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.4939,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.505
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.495,
"p_final_yes": 0.505,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2346,
"alpha_under": 0.258,
"best_over_odd": 2.02,
"best_under_odd": 1.85,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.95,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.78,
"edge_over": 0.0028,
"edge_under": -0.0028,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0264,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0672,
"ev_under": -0.0417,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0716,
"implied_over": 0.4792,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4772,
"implied_under": 0.5208,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5228,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2346,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.4772,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4783
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.258,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5228,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5216
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4783,
"p_final_under": 0.5216,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.976,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0936,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.8,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.976,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Club Sportivo San Lorenzo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 18.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Club Sportivo San Lorenzo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Club Sportivo San Lorenzo \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.63 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +98% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632003 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.63 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Club Sportivo San Lorenzo), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +98% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0936,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 5.26,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19011406844106465,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9762,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.26,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0936,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1803,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2181,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.4939,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2181,
"best_odd": 1.815,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.5061,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.495
},
"p_final": 0.505,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0606,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2181,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.4939,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.505
}
},
"edge": 0.0549,
"ev": 0.0736,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4901,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2346,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0011,
"market_prob": 0.4772,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2346,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.4772,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4783
},
"p_final": 0.4783,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0672,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.258,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5228,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5216
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1632003,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0936,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Club Sportivo San Lorenzo",
"home": "Sportivo Ameliano"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.040112,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.4901,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0936,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 5.26,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1803,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19011406844106465,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9762,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+97.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632003,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T19:00:37.232110+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Sportivo Ameliano & Club Sportivo San Lorenzo!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
División Profesional – Clausura — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asunción | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia Asunción | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asunción | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asunción | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
