AI correctly predicted the Petare FC win.
The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Petare FC Petare FC ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 34.7% | 37.5% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.9% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Petare FC | 35.6% | 30.6% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Petare FC's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.6%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Petare FC win 1–3).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Petare FC.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Petare FC more conservatively (30.5% vs model 35.6%, 5.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Petare FC win 1–3).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Petare FC 35.6%
- xG · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1.29 — Petare FC 1.31
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Aug 23, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2.37 · Draw 2.79 · Petare FC 2.91
- Implied 1X2 · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 37.5% · Draw 31.9% · Petare FC 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2.37 · Draw 2.79 · Petare FC 2.91
- Implied 1X2 · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 37.5% · Draw 31.9% · Petare FC 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Petare FC win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Segunda División Venezuela — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 60 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 4 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 31 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Barinas | 28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 31 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Barinas | 28 | 49 | 59 | -10 | 31 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 48 | 27 | +21 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 46 | 20 | +26 | 60 |
| 4 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 40 |
| 5 | Urena SC | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 45 |
| 6 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 31 |
| 7 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 40 |
| 8 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 28 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 22 | 62 | -40 | 12 |
