AI correctly predicted the Kashima Antlers win.
The match finished 7–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 7-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers | 49.1% | 74.6% | -25.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.0% | 16.0% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Newcastle Jets | 25.9% | 9.4% | +16.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Kashima Antlers's win probability at 74.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.1%, a difference of 25.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Kashima Antlers win 7–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.94) — 8 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kashima Antlers higher (74.6% vs model 49.1%, 25.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kashima Antlers win 7–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 19:07 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kashima Antlers 49.0% · Draw 25.1% · Newcastle Jets 25.9%
- xG · Kashima Antlers 1.50 — Newcastle Jets 1.44
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kashima Antlers 1.26 · Draw 5.86 · Newcastle Jets 10.04
- Implied 1X2 · Kashima Antlers 74.6% · Draw 16.0% · Newcastle Jets 9.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kashima Antlers 1.26 · Draw 5.86 · Newcastle Jets 10.04
- Implied 1X2 · Kashima Antlers 74.6% · Draw 16.0% · Newcastle Jets 9.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kashima Antlers win · 7–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Juara-Juara AFC — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi Fergana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi Fergana | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 5 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 6 | Neftchi Fergana | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 7 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 8 | Al Shamal | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Wasl FC | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 12 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 14 | Tractor Sazi | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 16 | Al-Nassr | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
