The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Retrô U20 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Retrô U20 Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retrô U20 | 39.0% | 53.8% | -14.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.3% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Santa Cruz U20 | 31.5% | 21.9% | +9.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Retrô U20's win probability at 53.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Retrô U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Retrô U20; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Retrô U20 by 14.8 percentage points (53.8% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Retrô U20 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Santa Cruz U20 31.5%
- xG · Retrô U20 1.38 — Santa Cruz U20 1.22
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 17:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Retrô U20 1.67 · Draw 3.70 · Santa Cruz U20 4.10
- Implied 1X2 · Retrô U20 53.8% · Draw 24.3% · Santa Cruz U20 21.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Retrô U20 1.67 · Draw 3.70 · Santa Cruz U20 4.10
- Implied 1X2 · Retrô U20 53.8% · Draw 24.3% · Santa Cruz U20 21.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
25/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.67
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Retrô U20 1–1 Santa Cruz U20
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"ev_available": true,
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2171,
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-21.7%"
},
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"text": "-3.4%"
},
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"side_label": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"sort_key": 1791.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"edge": 0.0016,
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"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
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"edge": 0.0016,
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 1.0,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0826,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1706,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0886,
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"model_prob": 0.544,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0561,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1024,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0561,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1785.975,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.83,
"hero_label": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"market_prob_pct": 53.8,
"market_team": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Retr\u00f4 U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Retr\u00f4 U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2912,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Retr\u00f4 U20 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Retr\u00f4 U20 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Retr\u00f4 U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1627215 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Retr\u00f4 U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2171,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.538,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3492,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.83,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.83,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Retr\u00f4 U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Retr\u00f4 U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2912,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Retr\u00f4 U20 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Retr\u00f4 U20 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Retr\u00f4 U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1627215 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Retr\u00f4 U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2171,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.538,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3492,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Retr\u00f4 U20 1.38 xG vs Santa Cruz U20 1.22 \u2192 Retr\u00f4 U20 39.0%",
"Market: Retr\u00f4 U20 ~53.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Retr\u00f4 U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Retr\u00f4 U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.83,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"market_prob": 53.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.26,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.57,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Santa Cruz U20",
"market_prob": 21.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.04,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.04,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.01,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.01,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"market_prob_pct": 53.8,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Retr\u00f4 U20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Retr\u00f4 U20\u0027s win probability at 53.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.83,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.8,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Retr\u00f4 U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Retr\u00f4 U20 1.38 xG vs Santa Cruz U20 1.22 \u2192 Retr\u00f4 U20 39.0%",
"Market: Retr\u00f4 U20 ~53.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Retr\u00f4 U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Retr\u00f4 U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.83,
"hero_label": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Retr\u00f4 U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Retr\u00f4 U20.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Retr\u00f4 U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Retr\u00f4 U20."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Retr\u00f4 U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Retr\u00f4 U20 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Retr\u00f4 U20."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.83,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Retr\u00f4 U20 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.83,
"edge_pp": -14.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"market_prob_pct": 53.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.26,
"edge_pp": 5.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.57,
"edge_pp": 9.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santa Cruz U20",
"market_prob_pct": 21.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Retr\u00f4 U20.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Retr\u00f4 U20 (53.8%).",
"Retr\u00f4 U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.88,
"closing_odds": 1.67,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.88,
"entry_odds": 1.67,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 1.67,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.67,
"pick_team": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "santa-cruz-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Santa Cruz U20",
"away_team_id": 13053,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13053.webp",
"away_team_name": "Santa Cruz U20",
"away_team_public_id": "4wQdiymSyVTRbk",
"away_team_slug": "santa-cruz-u20",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1627215,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"home_team_id": 13050,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13050.webp",
"home_team_name": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"home_team_public_id": "3z8GnVwWso0yeO",
"home_team_slug": "retro-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "retro-u20",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Pernambucano U20",
"league_id": 1088,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1088.webp",
"league_name": "Pernambucano U20",
"league_public_id": "3AwMFTF3QJftWG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3HoH2HGZMrLAlI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1713,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.2191,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2191,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.538
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2355
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2763,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0478,
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2191,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.538
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2574
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4665,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0692,
"ev": -0.2171,
"implied_prob": 0.538,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2191,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.538
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4688
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.071,
"ev": 0.2912,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": 0.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.2091,
"ev": -0.3493,
"implied_prob": 0.5988,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1551,
"alpha_yes": 0.1706,
"best_no_odd": 2.07,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0101,
"edge_yes": -0.0101,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0561,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0826,
"ev_yes": -0.1024,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0886,
"implied_no": 0.4459,
"implied_yes": 0.5541,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4475
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1706,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0886,
"implied_prob": 0.5541,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5523
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4475,
"p_final_yes": 0.5523,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2214,
"alpha_under": 0.2013,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.0704,
"edge_under": 0.0704,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1037,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0486,
"implied_over": 0.5524,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5523,
"implied_under": 0.4476,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4477,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2214,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1037,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5367
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2013,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4619
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5367,
"p_final_under": 0.4619,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2912,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Retr\u00f4 U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2912,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Retr\u00f4 U20 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Retr\u00f4 U20 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Retr\u00f4 U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Retr\u00f4 U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +29% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1627215 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Retr\u00f4 U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +29% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2171,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.538,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3492,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"edge": -0.0692,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Retr\u00f4 U20"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0016,
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"p_final": 0.4475,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0826,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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"p_final": 0.4619,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0486,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0704,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1627215,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Santa Cruz U20",
"home": "Retr\u00f4 U20"
},
"top_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0878,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2171,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.538,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3492,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-34.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1627215,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T18:03:42.798976+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Pernambucano U20 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Cruz U20 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 1 | Sport Recife U20 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Retrô U20 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 2 | Academica Vitoria U20 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Central SC U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Nautico Bawah 20 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Ipojuca Bawah 20 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Petrolina U20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | CA Porto U20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | America PE U20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | 1º de Maio U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Serrano PE U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Ibis Sport Club Bawah 20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Jaguar Bawah 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 8 | Atletico PE U20 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Guarany Bawah 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 9 | Atletico Torres U20 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Cruz U20 | 7 | 24 | 2 | +22 | 17 |
| 2 | Sport Recife U20 | 6 | 19 | 2 | +17 | 15 |
| 3 | Retrô U20 | 7 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 14 |
| 4 | America PE U20 | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 9 |
| 5 | CA Porto U20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 11 |
| 6 | Nautico Bawah 20 | 5 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 7 | Central SC U20 | 8 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 12 |
| 8 | Academica Vitoria U20 | 6 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 9 | Ipojuca Bawah 20 | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 | Ibis Sport Club Bawah 20 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | 1º de Maio U20 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrolina U20 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Atletico PE U20 | 7 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 3 |
| 14 | Serrano PE U20 | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Jaguar Bawah 20 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 16 | Atletico Torres U20 | 7 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 2 |
| 17 | Guarany Bawah 20 | 6 | 2 | 31 | -29 | 0 |
