The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Tritium at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Tritium Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tritium | 38.5% | 32.1% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.2% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Villa Valle | 31.9% | 36.7% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Tritium's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.1%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tritium.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Tritium; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tritium by 6.4 percentage points (32.1% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tritium 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Villa Valle 31.9%
- xG · Tritium 1.37 — Villa Valle 1.23
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tritium 2.77 · Draw 2.85 · Villa Valle 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Tritium 32.1% · Draw 31.2% · Villa Valle 36.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tritium 2.77 · Draw 2.85 · Villa Valle 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Tritium 32.1% · Draw 31.2% · Villa Valle 36.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.77
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Tritium 1–1 Villa Valle
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"away_xg": 1.23,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_score_rate": 70.8,
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"pick": "Yes",
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"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
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{
"away": 0,
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"prob": 10.2
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{
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"prob": 7.7
}
],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Tritium or Villa Valle",
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},
"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 17:59:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 17:29:51",
"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
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},
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"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
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},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "lean",
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-14.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0208,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.1,
"text": "-2.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0208,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1794.8,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0393,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0393,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Tritium",
"sort_key": 1790.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"alert_team": "Tritium",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.4,
"hero_label": "Tritium",
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"market_team": "Villa Valle",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Tritium",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0459,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0654,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tritium at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tritium as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tritium",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.4,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"steam_team": "Tritium",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0459,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0654,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tritium at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tritium as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tritium",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tritium 1.37 xG vs Villa Valle 1.23 \u2192 Tritium 38.5%",
"Market: Villa Valle ~32.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Tritium odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Tritium, but the market has moved away from Tritium.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Tritium",
"market_prob": 32.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.62,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.79,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Villa Valle",
"market_prob": 36.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.83,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.83,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.65,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Tritium",
"market_prob_pct": 32.09,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Tritium"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Tritium\u0027s win probability at 38.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.1%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tritium",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tritium 1.37 xG vs Villa Valle 1.23 \u2192 Tritium 38.5%",
"Market: Villa Valle ~32.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Tritium odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Tritium, but the market has moved away from Tritium.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.4,
"hero_label": "Tritium",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Tritium odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tritium.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tritium.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tritium.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tritium."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Tritium.",
"Recent line movement on Tritium (\u2191 +8.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (4/5) supports the current market view on Tritium."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Tritium",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.4,
"lead": "The model rates Tritium considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.4,
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Tritium",
"market_prob_pct": 32.09,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.62,
"edge_pp": -1.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.79,
"edge_pp": -4.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Villa Valle",
"market_prob_pct": 36.73,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tritium.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Villa Valle (32.1%).",
"Tritium odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.3%, 4/5) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tritium, Market \u2192 Villa Valle, while Tritium odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.1,
"closing_odds": 2.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.1,
"entry_odds": 2.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "4/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Tritium (8.3%, 4/5) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.77",
"2.58",
"2.40"
],
"display": "2.84 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 44m",
"pick_team": "Tritium",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.84"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
2.77,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Tritium",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from Tritium while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Tritium",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/5",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Tritium",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Tritium",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "villa-valle",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Villa Valle",
"away_team_id": 9460,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9460.webp",
"away_team_name": "Villa Valle",
"away_team_public_id": "60lTdsAUCxHnY8",
"away_team_slug": "villa-valle",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1624353,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Tritium",
"home_team_id": 9459,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9459.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tritium",
"home_team_public_id": "4XBuSlwGwo2xY2",
"home_team_slug": "tritium",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tritium",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie D - Girone B",
"league_id": 427,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/427.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D - Girone B",
"league_public_id": "4ip7mb0wd1BGNm",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3ltDAwjucXRONx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4178,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1595,
"implied_prob": 0.3673,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3673,
"draw": 0.3119,
"home": 0.3209
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4392,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.007,
"ev": -0.1312,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3673,
"draw": 0.3119,
"home": 0.3209
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3048
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.407,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3673,
"draw": 0.3119,
"home": 0.3209
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3468
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.0937,
"ev": -0.2268,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": -0.055,
"ev": -0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": 0.0236,
"ev": 0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1489,
"alpha_yes": 0.1489,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0365,
"edge_yes": 0.0365,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1473,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0965,
"ev_yes": -0.0208,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0767,
"implied_no": 0.4925,
"implied_yes": 0.5075,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.487
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.513
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.487,
"p_final_yes": 0.513,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2131,
"alpha_under": 0.2344,
"best_over_odd": 2.17,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.655,
"edge_over": 0.0383,
"edge_under": -0.0383,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0459,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0689,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.098,
"implied_over": 0.4437,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4467,
"implied_under": 0.5563,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5533,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.4467,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4542
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"best_odd": 1.655,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5533,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.545
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4542,
"p_final_under": 0.545,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0459,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0654,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0459,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0459,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0654,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tritium at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tritium as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tritium",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Tritium, but the model still strongly favours Tritium.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0459,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4437,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Tritium"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0054,
"market_prob": 0.5075,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.487
},
"p_final": 0.513,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0767,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1489,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0767,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.513
}
},
"edge": 0.0365,
"ev": -0.0208,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0075,
"market_prob": 0.4467,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2131,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": -0.0689,
"implied_prob": 0.4467,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4542
},
"p_final": 0.4542,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0689,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"best_odd": 1.655,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5533,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.545
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0383,
"ev": 0.0459,
"implied_prob": 0.4437,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1624353,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0459,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Villa Valle",
"home": "Tritium"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0393,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3209,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0653,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1624353,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T17:59:14.753847+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie D - Girone B — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Chievo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Milan II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Brusaporto | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Virtus Verona | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Piacenza | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Pavonese | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Pro Palazzolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Leon | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Caldiero Terme | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Villa Valle | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | Real Calepina | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Scanzorosciate | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Club Milano | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Tritium | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | Fiorenzuola | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Calepina | 5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Chievo | 5 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 3 | Milan II | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Rovato Vertovese | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 5 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Leon | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Brusaporto | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Tritium | 5 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Piacenza | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 11 | Villa Valle | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Virtus Verona | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Scanzorosciate | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 15 | Pavonese | 5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Pro Palazzolo | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Club Milano | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorenzuola | 5 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
