AI correctly predicted the Biellese win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Biellese Biellese ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Biellese win 4–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 12:54 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Biellese 1.45 — Gozzano 1.15
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Biellese win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Biellese win · Biellese 4–1 Gozzano
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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{
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gozzano",
"prob": 57.7
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],
"pick_key": "1X",
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"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 12:54:26",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 12:33:55",
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{
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{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.16,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
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}
]
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.184,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0295,
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},
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"id": "btts",
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{
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},
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},
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"text": "+1.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "-10.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5209.76,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1871,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5045,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0481,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.8,
"text": "-4.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2545,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Biellese",
"sort_key": 1787.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"alert_team": "Gozzano",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.08,
"hero_label": "Biellese",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"market_team": "Biellese",
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_team": "Biellese",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1219,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Biellese at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Biellese as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Biellese",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Biellese \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1624064 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1871,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5045,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2545,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.08,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.45,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"steam_team": "Gozzano",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1219,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Biellese at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Biellese as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Biellese",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Biellese \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1624064 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1871,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5045,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2545,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Biellese 1.45 xG vs Gozzano 1.15 \u2192 Biellese 42.4%",
"Market: Biellese ~50.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Gozzano \u2193 -13.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Biellese, but sharp money moved toward Gozzano.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.08,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Biellese",
"market_prob": 50.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.19,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.89,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Gozzano",
"market_prob": 22.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.14,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.06,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.14,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.94,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.06,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.06,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Biellese",
"market_prob_pct": 50.45,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Gozzano"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Biellese\u0027s win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Biellese",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.1,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Biellese 1.45 xG vs Gozzano 1.15 \u2192 Biellese 42.4%",
"Market: Biellese ~50.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Gozzano \u2193 -13.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Biellese, but sharp money moved toward Gozzano.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.08,
"hero_label": "Biellese",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Gozzano odds shortened \u2193 -13.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Gozzano, with odds shortening by 13.4%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Biellese. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Gozzano \u2014 odds shortened by 13.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Biellese. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Gozzano, with odds shortening by 13.4%. Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Gozzano \u2014 odds shortened by 13.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Biellese above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Gozzano has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.4%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Biellese",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Biellese higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.08,
"edge_pp": -8.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Biellese",
"market_prob_pct": 50.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.19,
"edge_pp": 2.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.89,
"edge_pp": 5.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gozzano",
"market_prob_pct": 22.48,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Gozzano \u2014 odds shortened by 13.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Biellese (50.5%).",
"Gozzano has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -13.4%, 2/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Biellese, Market \u2192 Biellese, Recent sharp money \u2192 Gozzano.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Gozzano (13.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.47",
"3.95"
],
"display": "5.00 \u2192 3.55 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 29m",
"pick_team": "Gozzano",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
3.95,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,11.5",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.95"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Gozzano",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Gozzano while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gozzano",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Gozzano",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Gozzano",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gozzano",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gozzano",
"away_team_id": 1714,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1714.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gozzano",
"away_team_public_id": "2rcnb0uAQ8SY3j",
"away_team_slug": "gozzano",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1624064,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Biellese",
"home_team_id": 26505,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26505.webp",
"home_team_name": "Biellese",
"home_team_public_id": "5ys7NiZXBAAdvT",
"home_team_slug": "biellese",
"ht.home_team_slug": "biellese",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie D - Girone A",
"league_id": 426,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/426.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D - Girone A",
"league_public_id": "3SJFB0aavhQKDo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2ATAERjevG7Pss",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2733,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.2248,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2248,
"draw": 0.2707,
"home": 0.5045
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.241
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2903,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0063,
"ev": -0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.2707,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2248,
"draw": 0.2707,
"home": 0.5045
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.277
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0426,
"ev": -0.1871,
"implied_prob": 0.5045,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2248,
"draw": 0.2707,
"home": 0.5045
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.4619
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.95,
"edge": 0.0309,
"ev": 0.1219,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.1445,
"ev": -0.2544,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.4236
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2246,
"alpha_yes": 0.2042,
"best_no_odd": 1.77,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0606,
"edge_yes": 0.0606,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.184,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1122,
"ev_yes": 0.0295,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0641,
"implied_no": 0.5216,
"implied_yes": 0.4784,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1122,
"implied_prob": 0.5226,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5087
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0641,
"implied_prob": 0.4774,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.49
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5087,
"p_final_yes": 0.49,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2142,
"alpha_under": 0.2357,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.04,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0314,
"edge_under": -0.0314,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0678,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0943,
"implied_over": 0.4506,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4501,
"implied_under": 0.5494,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5499,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0678,
"implied_prob": 0.4501,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.457
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0943,
"implied_prob": 0.5499,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5424
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.457,
"p_final_under": 0.5424,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1219,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0295,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1219,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Biellese at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Biellese as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Biellese",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Biellese \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1624064 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.9% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.9% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Gozzano, but the model still strongly favours Biellese.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5045,
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"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
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"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
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},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
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"xg_diff": 0.3
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"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
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"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0295,
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
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},
"match_id": 1624064,
"match_regime": {
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"probabilities": {
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"secondary_pick": null,
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"teams": {
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"home": "Biellese"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1624064,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T12:54:28.651484+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie D - Girone A — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Biellese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Derthona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Ligorna | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Asti | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Gozzano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Saluzzo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Millesimo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Chisola | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Imperia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Lascaris | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Sanremese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Fezzanese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Valenzana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | Bra | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biellese | 6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 14 |
| 2 | Alessandria | 6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 3 | Ligorna | 6 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 4 | Saluzzo | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Chisola | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 6 | Sanremese | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Millesimo | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Asti | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Gozzano | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Derthona | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Imperia | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | Fezzanese | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Valenzana | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Lascaris | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Bra | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 5 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
