The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).
The model had projected Modena Bawah 19 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Modena Bawah 19 Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena Bawah 19 | 37.5% | 47.0% | -9.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Sampdoria U19 | 32.9% | 28.1% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Modena Bawah 19's win probability at 47.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 4–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Modena Bawah 19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Modena Bawah 19 by 9.5 percentage points (47.0% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Modena Bawah 19 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sampdoria U19 32.9%
- xG · Modena Bawah 19 1.35 — Sampdoria U19 1.25
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Modena Bawah 19 1.91 · Draw 3.60 · Sampdoria U19 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Modena Bawah 19 47.0% · Draw 24.9% · Sampdoria U19 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Modena Bawah 19 1.91 · Draw 3.60 · Sampdoria U19 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Modena Bawah 19 47.0% · Draw 24.9% · Sampdoria U19 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
52/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Modena Bawah 19 4–4 Sampdoria U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"has_data": true,
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{
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}
]
},
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10078.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1951,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0557,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Modena Bawah 19",
"sort_key": 1786.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.47,
"hero_label": "Modena Bawah 19",
"market_prob_pct": 47.0,
"market_team": "Modena Bawah 19",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Modena Bawah 19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Modena Bawah 19 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Modena Bawah 19 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Modena Bawah 19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1951,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.47,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Modena Bawah 19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Modena Bawah 19 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Modena Bawah 19 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Modena Bawah 19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1951,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Modena Bawah 19 1.35 xG vs Sampdoria U19 1.25 \u2192 Modena Bawah 19 37.5%",
"Market: Modena Bawah 19 ~47.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Modena Bawah 19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Modena Bawah 19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Modena Bawah 19",
"market_prob": 47.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.79,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Sampdoria U19",
"market_prob": 28.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.51,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.51,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.85,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Modena Bawah 19",
"market_prob_pct": 47.01,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Modena Bawah 19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Modena Bawah 19\u0027s win probability at 47.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Modena Bawah 19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Modena Bawah 19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Modena Bawah 19 1.35 xG vs Sampdoria U19 1.25 \u2192 Modena Bawah 19 37.5%",
"Market: Modena Bawah 19 ~47.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Modena Bawah 19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Modena Bawah 19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.47,
"hero_label": "Modena Bawah 19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Modena Bawah 19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Modena Bawah 19.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Modena Bawah 19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Modena Bawah 19."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Modena Bawah 19 above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Modena Bawah 19 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Modena Bawah 19."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Modena Bawah 19",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Modena Bawah 19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.47,
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Modena Bawah 19",
"market_prob_pct": 47.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.67,
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.79,
"edge_pp": 4.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sampdoria U19",
"market_prob_pct": 28.06,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Modena Bawah 19.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Modena Bawah 19 (47.0%).",
"Modena Bawah 19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 1.91,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Modena Bawah 19",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Modena Bawah 19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sampdoria-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sampdoria U19",
"away_team_id": 15680,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15680.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sampdoria U19",
"away_team_public_id": "4zhhbonmofUvWu",
"away_team_slug": "sampdoria-u19",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1623572,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Modena Bawah 19",
"home_team_id": 24357,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24357.webp",
"home_team_name": "Modena Bawah 19",
"home_team_public_id": "4BJWaHGjOIazGk",
"home_team_slug": "modena-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "modena-u19",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Campionato Primavera 2",
"league_id": 706,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/706.webp",
"league_name": "Campionato Primavera 2",
"league_public_id": "4gDZbIeLwBb0Ny",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "1EsWsazSySOTlO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2783,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.2806,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2806,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4701
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.294
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2792,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.2494,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2806,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4701
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2623
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.515,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0486,
"ev": -0.1951,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2806,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4701
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4214
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": 0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": 0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.1479,
"ev": -0.2825,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1131,
"alpha_yes": 0.1555,
"best_no_odd": 2.39,
"best_yes_odd": 1.49,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0685,
"edge_yes": -0.0685,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0875,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_yes": -0.1879,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1018,
"implied_no": 0.3865,
"implied_yes": 0.6135,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3943
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3943,
"p_final_yes": 0.6028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2053,
"alpha_under": 0.1493,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.54,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.27,
"edge_over": -0.1151,
"edge_under": 0.1151,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1184,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0439,
"implied_over": 0.5971,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5958,
"implied_under": 0.4029,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4042,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.1184,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4212
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5724,
"p_final_under": 0.4212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Modena Bawah 19 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Modena Bawah 19 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Modena Bawah 19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena Bawah 19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1951,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0486,
"ev": -0.1951,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Modena Bawah 19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.3865,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3943
},
"p_final": 0.3943,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"edge": 0.0685,
"ev": 0.0875,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.4042,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.1184,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"p_final": 0.4212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4212
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1151,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4029,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1623572,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sampdoria U19",
"home": "Modena Bawah 19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4029,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1951,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1623572,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:03:42.197826+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Campionato Primavera 2 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate B-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella B-19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari Bawah 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova Bawah 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo B-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia B-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese B-19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana B-19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | Modena Bawah 19 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 5 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Renate B-19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 | Bari Bawah 19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Palermo B-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella B-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cittadella Bawah 19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | Spezia B-19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Monopoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Brescia Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Latina Bawah 19 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Udinese B-19 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Mantova Bawah 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 25 | Ascoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 27 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 28 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 | Cosenza Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
| 30 | Salernitana B-19 | 3 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
| 31 | Sudtirol Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
