AI correctly predicted the Avellino U19 win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Avellino U19 Avellino U19 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino U19 | 39.5% | 52.0% | -12.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.4% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Latina Bawah 19 | 31.0% | 24.5% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Avellino U19's win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Avellino U19 win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Avellino U19 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Avellino U19 higher (52.1% vs model 39.5%, 12.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Avellino U19 win 3–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Avellino U19 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Latina Bawah 19 31.0%
- xG · Avellino U19 1.39 — Latina Bawah 19 1.21
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Avellino U19 1.74 · Draw 3.87 · Latina Bawah 19 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Avellino U19 52.0% · Draw 23.4% · Latina Bawah 19 24.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Avellino U19 1.74 · Draw 3.87 · Latina Bawah 19 3.69
- Implied 1X2 · Avellino U19 52.0% · Draw 23.4% · Latina Bawah 19 24.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Avellino U19 win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
37/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Avellino U19 win · Avellino U19 3–1 Latina Bawah 19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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},
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
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"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
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"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
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"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
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"entries": [
{
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"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
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"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avellino U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2007,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.59,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Avellino U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avellino U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avellino U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avellino U19 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avellino U19 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avellino U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avellino U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2007,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Avellino U19 1.39 xG vs Latina Bawah 19 1.21 \u2192 Avellino U19 39.5%",
"Market: Avellino U19 ~52.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Avellino U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Avellino U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Avellino U19",
"market_prob": 52.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.11,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.49,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Latina Bawah 19",
"market_prob": 24.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.55,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.55,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.21,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.21,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Avellino U19",
"market_prob_pct": 52.05,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Avellino U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Avellino U19\u0027s win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Avellino U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Avellino U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Avellino U19 1.39 xG vs Latina Bawah 19 1.21 \u2192 Avellino U19 39.5%",
"Market: Avellino U19 ~52.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Avellino U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Avellino U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.59,
"hero_label": "Avellino U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Avellino U19 is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Avellino U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Avellino U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Avellino U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Avellino U19 is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Avellino U19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Avellino U19 (pricing gap 12.6 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Avellino U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Avellino U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.59,
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Avellino U19",
"market_prob_pct": 52.05,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.11,
"edge_pp": 6.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.4,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.49,
"edge_pp": 6.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Latina Bawah 19",
"market_prob_pct": 24.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Avellino U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Avellino U19 (52.0%).",
"Avellino U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"closing_odds": 1.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
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"clv_pp": 0.0,
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"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.47,
"entry_odds": 1.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 1.62,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.62,
"pick_team": "Avellino U19",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Avellino U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Latina Bawah 19",
"away_team_id": 27997,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Latina Bawah 19",
"away_team_public_id": "3AA3fTNY8X5dVv",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1623566,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Avellino U19",
"home_team_id": 24356,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24356.webp",
"home_team_name": "Avellino U19",
"home_team_public_id": "1QTylYpQbAD97X",
"home_team_slug": "avellino-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "avellino-u19",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Campionato Primavera 2",
"league_id": 706,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/706.webp",
"league_name": "Campionato Primavera 2",
"league_public_id": "4gDZbIeLwBb0Ny",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3V8Z7RE0YmsWxc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2708,
"best_odd": 3.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.2454,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2454,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.5205
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.263
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2727,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.234,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2454,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.5205
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2506
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.487,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0612,
"ev": -0.2007,
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2454,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.5205
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4594
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
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"away": {
"best_odd": 3.69,
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": 0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0364,
"ev": 0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.1798,
"ev": -0.3128,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
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"alpha_yes": 0.1597,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.56,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0521,
"edge_yes": -0.0521,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0511,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1028,
"ev_yes": -0.1529,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1316,
"implied_no": 0.4049,
"implied_yes": 0.5951,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.1028,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4125
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1597,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1316,
"implied_prob": 0.5951,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5868
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4125,
"p_final_yes": 0.5868,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1992,
"alpha_under": 0.1449,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.43,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.505,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.375,
"edge_over": -0.1255,
"edge_under": 0.1255,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1178,
"ev_under": 0.2587,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.034,
"implied_over": 0.6075,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6121,
"implied_under": 0.3925,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3879,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.6121,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5862
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.3879,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4067
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5862,
"p_final_under": 0.4067,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence": 6.5,
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"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avellino U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2587,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2587,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avellino U19 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avellino U19 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avellino U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +25.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Avellino U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2007,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0612,
"ev": -0.2007,
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Avellino U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1452,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0076,
"market_prob": 0.4049,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.1028,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4125
},
"p_final": 0.4125,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.1028,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1597,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1316,
"implied_prob": 0.5951,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5868
}
},
"edge": 0.0521,
"ev": 0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.3879,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.6121,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5862
},
"p_final": 0.4067,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.034,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.3879,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4067
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1255,
"ev": 0.2587,
"implied_prob": 0.3925,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1623566,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2587,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Latina Bawah 19",
"home": "Avellino U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.093805,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2587,
"implied_prob": 0.3925,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2007,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3129,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1623566,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T12:59:29.214922+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Avellino U19 & Latina Bawah 19!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Campionato Primavera 2 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate B-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella B-19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari Bawah 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova Bawah 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo B-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia B-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese B-19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana B-19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | Modena Bawah 19 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 5 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Renate B-19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 | Bari Bawah 19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Palermo B-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella B-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cittadella Bawah 19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | Spezia B-19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Monopoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Brescia Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Latina Bawah 19 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Udinese B-19 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Mantova Bawah 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 25 | Ascoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 27 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 28 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 | Cosenza Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
| 30 | Salernitana B-19 | 3 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
| 31 | Sudtirol Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
