AI correctly predicted the Al Salmiyah win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Al Salmiyah Al Salmiyah ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Tadhamon | 29.2% | 20.6% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.5% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Al Salmiyah | 41.4% | 53.8% | -12.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Al Salmiyah's win probability at 53.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Al Salmiyah win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Al Salmiyah than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al Salmiyah higher (53.8% vs model 41.4%, 12.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al Salmiyah win 0–2).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 17:54 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Tadhamon 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Al Salmiyah 41.4%
- xG · Al Tadhamon 1.17 — Al Salmiyah 1.43
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 17:24 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Tadhamon 4.38 · Draw 3.54 · Al Salmiyah 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Al Tadhamon 20.6% · Draw 25.5% · Al Salmiyah 53.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 17:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Tadhamon 4.38 · Draw 3.54 · Al Salmiyah 1.68
- Implied 1X2 · Al Tadhamon 20.6% · Draw 25.5% · Al Salmiyah 53.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Salmiyah win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Kuwait Premier League — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kazma | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Kuwait | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Qadsia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Al Salmiyah | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Nasar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Shabab | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Sahel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Fahaheel | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Jahra | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Arabi Kuwait | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi Kuwait | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 2 |
| 2 | Kazma | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Fahaheel | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al Shabab | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Kuwait | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Salmiyah | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Nasar | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Al Jahra | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Sulaibikhat | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | Al Tadhamon | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Sahel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
