AI correctly predicted the Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi Maccabi Kiryat Malachi ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 38.0% | 32.6% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.4% | -1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Hapoel Azor | 32.4% | 36.0% | -3.6 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Maccabi Kiryat Malachi's win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.6%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Maccabi Kiryat Malachi more conservatively (32.6% vs model 38.0%, 5.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win 3–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Hapoel Azor 32.4%
- xG · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.36 — Hapoel Azor 1.24
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2.73 · Draw 2.83 · Hapoel Azor 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 32.6% · Draw 31.4% · Hapoel Azor 36.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2.73 · Draw 2.83 · Hapoel Azor 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 32.6% · Draw 31.4% · Hapoel Azor 36.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
25/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–0 Hapoel Azor
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0491,
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"alert_team": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.4,
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"hero_edge_pp": 5.44,
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"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
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"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kiryat Malachi as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0491,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.44,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.44,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"steam_team": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kiryat Malachi as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0491,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.36 xG vs Hapoel Azor 1.24 \u2192 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 38.0%",
"Market: Hapoel Azor ~32.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi odds \u2191 +6.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.44,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"market_prob": 32.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.83,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.61,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Hapoel Azor",
"market_prob": 36.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.44,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.44,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"market_prob_pct": 32.57,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Maccabi Kiryat Malachi\u0027s win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.6%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.44,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.4,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.36 xG vs Hapoel Azor 1.24 \u2192 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 38.0%",
"Market: Hapoel Azor ~32.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi odds \u2191 +6.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.44,
"hero_label": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi odds lengthened \u2191 +6.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"Recent line movement on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi (\u2191 +6.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.44,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.4,
"lead": "The model rates Maccabi Kiryat Malachi considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.44,
"edge_pp": 5.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"market_prob_pct": 32.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.83,
"edge_pp": -1.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.42,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.61,
"edge_pp": -3.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hapoel Azor",
"market_prob_pct": 36.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hapoel Azor (32.6%).",
"However, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.2%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, Market \u2192 Hapoel Azor, while Maccabi Kiryat Malachi odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.63,
"closing_odds": 2.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.63,
"entry_odds": 2.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 54h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi (6.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.73",
"2.56",
"2.40"
],
"display": "2.73 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 54h 2m",
"pick_team": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.73"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
2.73,
2.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.73"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/8 sportsbooks on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hapoel-azor",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hapoel Azor",
"away_team_id": 6146,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6146.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hapoel Azor",
"away_team_public_id": "25HD4uf9eyyezm",
"away_team_slug": "hapoel-azor",
"country_code": "IL",
"country_display_name": "Israel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/il.svg",
"country_id": 78,
"country_name": "Israel",
"fixture_id": 1621605,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Israel",
"home_team_display_name": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"home_team_id": 6195,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6195.webp",
"home_team_name": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"home_team_public_id": "1Qe0bLaekDrP1H",
"home_team_slug": "maccabi-kiryat-malachi",
"ht.home_team_slug": "maccabi-kiryat-malachi",
"league_country": "Israel",
"league_country_display": "Israel",
"league_display_name": "Liga Alef",
"league_id": 496,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/496.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Alef",
"league_public_id": "5uA9dViy0RGzXZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 11:00:00",
"public_id": "19FItme63EjrQn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4255,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1489,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.36,
"draw": 0.3142,
"home": 0.3257
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3446
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4377,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.1334,
"implied_prob": 0.3142,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.36,
"draw": 0.3142,
"home": 0.3257
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3062
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4131,
"best_odd": 2.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.36,
"draw": 0.3142,
"home": 0.3257
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3483
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.0811,
"ev": -0.2004,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0574,
"ev": -0.1625,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.73,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": 0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.3663,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2238,
"alpha_yes": 0.2035,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0644,
"edge_yes": 0.0644,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1103,
"ev_yes": 0.0608,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0605,
"implied_no": 0.5204,
"implied_yes": 0.4796,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1103,
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5055
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.4802,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4932
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5055,
"p_final_yes": 0.4932,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1599,
"alpha_under": 0.2198,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.24,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.54,
"edge_over": 0.0735,
"edge_under": -0.0735,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0607,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1127,
"implied_over": 0.4085,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4074,
"implied_under": 0.5915,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5926,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1599,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.4074,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4193
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2198,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1127,
"implied_prob": 0.5926,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5762
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4193,
"p_final_under": 0.5762,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maccabi Kiryat Malachi as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, but the model still strongly favours Maccabi Kiryat Malachi.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0491,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.905,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.4802,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1103,
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5055
},
"p_final": 0.4932,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0605,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2035,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.4802,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4932
}
},
"edge": 0.0644,
"ev": 0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1599,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0119,
"market_prob": 0.4074,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1599,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.4074,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4193
},
"p_final": 0.4193,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0607,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2198,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1127,
"implied_prob": 0.5926,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5762
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0735,
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4085,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1621605,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1327,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.4796,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hapoel Azor",
"home": "Maccabi Kiryat Malachi"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044773,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4085,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0491,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0382,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1621605,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T10:59:19.459300+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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