The model missed the final outcome (Liverpool U21 win 5–1).
The model had projected Brighton U21 at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Brighton U21 Liverpool U21 ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool U21 | 34.7% | 35.6% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 37.4% | -7.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Brighton U21 | 35.6% | 26.9% | +8.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Brighton U21's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.9%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Liverpool U21 win 5–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Brighton U21.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Brighton U21 by 8.7 percentage points (26.9% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Liverpool U21 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Brighton U21 35.6%
- xG · Liverpool U21 1.29 — Brighton U21 1.31
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Liverpool U21 2.54 · Draw 2.42 · Brighton U21 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · Liverpool U21 35.6% · Draw 37.4% · Brighton U21 26.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Liverpool U21 2.54 · Draw 2.42 · Brighton U21 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · Liverpool U21 35.6% · Draw 37.4% · Brighton U21 26.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Liverpool U21 win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
19/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.36
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Liverpool U21 win · Liverpool U21 5–1 Brighton U21
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 11:02:18",
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"most_likely": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "-26.2%"
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"text": "+25%+"
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{
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},
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"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
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"text": "-21.5%"
},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0188,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0188,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1958,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Brighton U21",
"sort_key": 1795.3,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.7,
"hero_label": "Brighton U21",
"market_prob_pct": 26.9,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Brighton U21",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brighton U21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brighton U21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brighton U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0188,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1958,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.7,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.7,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Liverpool U21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brighton U21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brighton U21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brighton U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0188,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1958,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Liverpool U21 1.29 xG vs Brighton U21 1.31 \u2192 Brighton U21 35.6%",
"Market: Draw ~26.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Liverpool U21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Brighton U21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.94,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Liverpool U21",
"market_prob": 35.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.76,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 37.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.7,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Brighton U21",
"market_prob": 26.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.96,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.96,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.47,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Brighton U21",
"market_prob_pct": 26.94,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Liverpool U21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Brighton U21\u0027s win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.9%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.7,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Brighton U21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Liverpool U21 1.29 xG vs Brighton U21 1.31 \u2192 Brighton U21 35.6%",
"Market: Draw ~26.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Liverpool U21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Brighton U21 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.7,
"hero_label": "Brighton U21",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Liverpool U21 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Brighton U21.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Liverpool U21.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Brighton U21.",
"However, Liverpool U21 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Liverpool U21."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Brighton U21.",
"At the same time, Liverpool U21 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Liverpool U21."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.7,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Brighton U21",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.7,
"lead": "The model rates Brighton U21 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.94,
"edge_pp": -0.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Liverpool U21",
"market_prob_pct": 35.64,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.76,
"edge_pp": -7.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.7,
"edge_pp": 8.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Brighton U21",
"market_prob_pct": 26.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Liverpool U21.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (26.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Brighton U21, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.76,
"closing_odds": 3.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.76,
"entry_odds": 3.36,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Liverpool U21",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Liverpool U21",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "brighton-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Brighton U21",
"away_team_id": 7191,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7191.webp",
"away_team_name": "Brighton U21",
"away_team_public_id": "0XeXJ45tUWzUuQ",
"away_team_slug": "brighton-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1621039,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Liverpool U21",
"home_team_id": 7196,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7196.webp",
"home_team_name": "Liverpool U21",
"home_team_public_id": "379IIYyMZThtZK",
"home_team_slug": "liverpool-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "liverpool-u21",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Premier League 2 Division Satu",
"league_id": 702,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/702.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League 2 Division Satu",
"league_public_id": "1O4UNf5bqWwkPw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:00:00",
"public_id": "1vDhbXkznETSeg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Liverpool",
"venue_name": "Liverpool Academy"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2611,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0188,
"implied_prob": 0.2694,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2694,
"draw": 0.3741,
"home": 0.3564
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.292
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3978,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0308,
"ev": -0.1691,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2694,
"draw": 0.3741,
"home": 0.3564
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3434
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4438,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.105,
"implied_prob": 0.3564,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2694,
"draw": 0.3741,
"home": 0.3564
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3524
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.0583,
"ev": 0.1959,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": -0.1164,
"ev": -0.2818,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.0464,
"ev": -0.1179,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1549,
"alpha_yes": 0.2129,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0947,
"edge_yes": -0.0947,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0479,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1128,
"implied_no": 0.3603,
"implied_yes": 0.6397,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1549,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0479,
"implied_prob": 0.3619,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3763
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.6381,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6183
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3763,
"p_final_yes": 0.6183,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1963,
"alpha_under": 0.1428,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.1396,
"edge_under": 0.1396,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1346,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0483,
"implied_over": 0.6216,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6198,
"implied_under": 0.3784,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3802,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1963,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0271,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3999
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5927,
"p_final_under": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brighton U21 at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brighton U21 as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brighton U21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Liverpool U21, but the model still strongly favours Brighton U21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0188,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1958,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0188,
"implied_prob": 0.2694,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Brighton U21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1549,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0144,
"market_prob": 0.3619,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1549,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0479,
"implied_prob": 0.3619,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3763
},
"p_final": 0.3763,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0479,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.6381,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6183
}
},
"edge": 0.0947,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3603,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"market_prob": 0.3802,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1963,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0271,
"ev": -0.1346,
"implied_prob": 0.6198,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5927
},
"p_final": 0.3999,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0483,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1428,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3999
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1396,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1621039,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3603,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3603,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Brighton U21",
"home": "Liverpool U21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3784,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0188,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2694,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1958,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1621039,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:02:19.890871+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Liverpool U21 & Brighton U21!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Premier League 2 Division Satu — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Reading U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Everton U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 21 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 23 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 28 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 5 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 14 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 18 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
| 21 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 22 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 23 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 24 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 25 | Everton U21 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 26 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 27 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
