The model missed the final outcome (Real Brasília U20 win 0–2).
The model had projected Brasiliense U20 at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Brasiliense U20 Real Brasília U20 ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brasiliense U20 | 39.9% | 56.6% | -16.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.3% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Real Brasília U20 | 30.6% | 20.1% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Brasiliense U20's win probability at 56.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Real Brasília U20 win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Brasiliense U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Brasiliense U20; match finished Real Brasília U20
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Brasiliense U20 by 16.6 percentage points (56.5% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Brasiliense U20 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Real Brasília U20 30.6%
- xG · Brasiliense U20 1.40 — Real Brasília U20 1.20
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Brasiliense U20 1.57 · Draw 3.82 · Real Brasília U20 4.41
- Implied 1X2 · Brasiliense U20 56.6% · Draw 23.3% · Real Brasília U20 20.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Brasiliense U20 1.57 · Draw 3.82 · Real Brasília U20 4.41
- Implied 1X2 · Brasiliense U20 56.6% · Draw 23.3% · Real Brasília U20 20.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Brasília U20 win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Brasiliense U20 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasiliense U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Legião U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Sobradinho U20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Taguatinga U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Capital TO U20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Samambaia U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Gama U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Brazlândia FC SAF U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | CFZ Brasília U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | ARUC U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Planaltina U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasiliense U20 | 3 | 21 | 0 | +21 | 9 |
| 2 | Sobradinho U20 | 2 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 6 |
| 3 | Taguatinga U20 | 3 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 | Gama U20 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Capital TO U20 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 6 | Legião U20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Brazlândia FC SAF U20 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Samambaia U20 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | CFZ Brasília U20 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 10 | ARUC U20 | 3 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 0 |
| 11 | Planaltina U20 | 3 | 0 | 21 | -21 | 0 |
