AI correctly predicted the Wigan Athletic B-21 win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Wigan Athletic B-21 Wigan Athletic B-21 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan Athletic B-21 | 36.6% | 32.7% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.6% | +8.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Huddersfield Town B-21 | 33.8% | 45.8% | -12.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Huddersfield Town B-21's win probability at 45.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Wigan Athletic B-21 win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Huddersfield Town B-21 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wigan Athletic B-21 higher (48.6% vs model 36.6%, 12.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wigan Athletic B-21 win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wigan Athletic B-21 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Huddersfield Town B-21 33.8%
- xG · Wigan Athletic B-21 1.33 — Huddersfield Town B-21 1.27
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wigan Athletic B-21 2.80 · Draw 4.24 · Huddersfield Town B-21 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · Wigan Athletic B-21 32.7% · Draw 21.6% · Huddersfield Town B-21 45.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wigan Athletic B-21 2.80 · Draw 4.24 · Huddersfield Town B-21 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · Wigan Athletic B-21 32.7% · Draw 21.6% · Huddersfield Town B-21 45.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Wigan Athletic B-21 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
14/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Wigan Athletic B-21 win · Wigan Athletic B-21 2–1 Huddersfield Town B-21
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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},
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0386,
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},
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"text": "-2.5%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
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"sort_key": 1793.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.98,
"hero_label": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"market_team": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wigan Athletic B-21 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wigan Athletic B-21 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0386,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35714285714285715,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0248,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.98,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wigan Athletic B-21 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wigan Athletic B-21 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0386,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35714285714285715,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0248,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wigan Athletic B-21 1.33 xG vs Huddersfield Town B-21 1.27 \u2192 Wigan Athletic B-21 36.6%",
"Market: Huddersfield Town B-21 ~32.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wigan Athletic B-21, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.91,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"market_prob": 32.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.98,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"market_prob": 45.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -26.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.57,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 74.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.57,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 25.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"market_prob_pct": 45.75,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Huddersfield Town B-21\u0027s win probability at 45.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wigan Athletic B-21 1.33 xG vs Huddersfield Town B-21 1.27 \u2192 Wigan Athletic B-21 36.6%",
"Market: Huddersfield Town B-21 ~32.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wigan Athletic B-21, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.98,
"hero_label": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 3.0%. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Huddersfield Town B-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Huddersfield Town B-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 3.0%. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Huddersfield Town B-21 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.0%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Huddersfield Town B-21 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.91,
"edge_pp": 3.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"market_prob_pct": 32.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.06,
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.98,
"edge_pp": -11.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"market_prob_pct": 45.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Huddersfield Town B-21 (32.7%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 1/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Wigan Athletic B-21, Market \u2192 Huddersfield Town B-21, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"closing_odds": 2.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 33m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.33 \u2192 3.80 \u2192 4.20) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"4.27",
"4.20"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.80 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 33m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
4.24,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,12.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "huddersfield-town-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"away_team_id": 20017,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20017.webp",
"away_team_name": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"away_team_public_id": "3RsqU2OUbRunLZ",
"away_team_slug": "huddersfield-town-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1619155,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"home_team_id": 20097,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20097.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"home_team_public_id": "5wyy6QimaZXlRq",
"home_team_slug": "wigan-athletic-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "wigan-athletic-u21",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pembangunan Profesional",
"league_id": 703,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/703.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pembangunan Profesional",
"league_public_id": "3ndHGQfm7HNJhM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 12:00:00",
"public_id": "5JsUlF8H9EMqs6",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Wigan",
"venue_name": "DW Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3691,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0443,
"ev": -0.1736,
"implied_prob": 0.4575,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4575,
"draw": 0.2158,
"home": 0.3268
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4132
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1758,
"best_odd": 4.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0249,
"implied_prob": 0.2158,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4575,
"draw": 0.2158,
"home": 0.3268
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.23
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4235,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0386,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4575,
"draw": 0.2158,
"home": 0.3268
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3434
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1625,
"ev": -0.3249,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.24,
"edge": 0.0606,
"ev": 0.2571,
"implied_prob": 0.2358,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": 0.0247,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0801,
"alpha_yes": 0.1763,
"best_no_odd": 3.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1957,
"edge_yes": -0.1957,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.729,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0331,
"ev_yes": -0.3187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1284,
"implied_no": 0.2593,
"implied_yes": 0.7407,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0801,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0331,
"implied_prob": 0.2633,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2786
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1763,
"best_odd": 1.24,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.7367,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7029
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2786,
"p_final_yes": 0.7029,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.149,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.28,
"best_under_odd": 4.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.21,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.58,
"edge_over": -0.2675,
"edge_under": 0.2675,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.383,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1435,
"ev_under": 1.072,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0196,
"implied_over": 0.7495,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7474,
"implied_under": 0.2505,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.149,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.0395,
"ev": -0.1435,
"implied_prob": 0.7474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7079
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0196,
"implied_prob": 0.2526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2738
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7079,
"p_final_under": 0.2738,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.072,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.072,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.072,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wigan Athletic B-21 at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wigan Athletic B-21 as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wigan Athletic B-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Wigan Athletic B-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
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"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
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"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
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"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0386,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wigan Athletic B-21"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0154,
"market_prob": 0.2633,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.0154,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0331,
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"yes": {
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},
"edge": 0.1957,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0212,
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"over": {
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"edge": -0.0395,
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"under": {
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},
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1619155,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.072,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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"secondary_pick": {
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
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],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Huddersfield Town B-21",
"home": "Wigan Athletic B-21"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "under",
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"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619155,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T11:59:29.322863+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Wigan Athletic B-21 & Huddersfield Town B-21!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pembangunan Profesional — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Reserves | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Swansea City B-21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Fleetwood Town B-21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sheffield United B-21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Barnsley B-21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Peterborough United B-21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday B-21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Huddersfield Town B-21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Wigan Athletic B-21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers B-21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Hull City B-21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall B-21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Reserves | 5 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 15 |
| 2 | Wigan Athletic B-21 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 8 |
| 4 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Swansea City B-21 | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Barnsley B-21 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers B-21 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wednesday B-21 | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Peterborough United B-21 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town B-21 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sheffield United B-21 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town B-21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Hull City B-21 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall B-21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
