AI correctly predicted the Swansea City B-21 win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Swansea City B-21 Swansea City B-21 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City B-21 | 39.5% | 48.4% | -9.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 20.9% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Queens Park Rangers B-21 | 31.0% | 30.6% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Swansea City B-21's win probability at 48.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Swansea City B-21 win 4–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Swansea City B-21. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Swansea City B-21 higher (48.5% vs model 39.5%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Swansea City B-21 win 4–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Swansea City B-21 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Queens Park Rangers B-21 31.0%
- xG · Swansea City B-21 1.39 — Queens Park Rangers B-21 1.21
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Swansea City B-21 1.89 · Draw 4.37 · Queens Park Rangers B-21 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Swansea City B-21 48.4% · Draw 20.9% · Queens Park Rangers B-21 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Swansea City B-21 1.89 · Draw 4.37 · Queens Park Rangers B-21 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Swansea City B-21 48.4% · Draw 20.9% · Queens Park Rangers B-21 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Swansea City B-21 win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
55/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Swansea City B-21 win · Swansea City B-21 4–2 Queens Park Rangers B-21
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.9%",
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
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{
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},
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Swansea City B-21 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.4%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Swansea City B-21 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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"model_lean": "Swansea City B-21",
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"tone": "warn"
}
],
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"primary": {
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"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
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{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1724,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2536,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.98,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"steam_team": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Swansea City B-21 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Swansea City B-21 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Swansea City B-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1724,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2536,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Swansea City B-21 1.39 xG vs Queens Park Rangers B-21 1.21 \u2192 Swansea City B-21 39.5%",
"Market: Swansea City B-21 ~48.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Queens Park Rangers B-21 \u2193 -13.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Swansea City B-21, but sharp money moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.98,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Swansea City B-21",
"market_prob": 48.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.56,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.41,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"market_prob": 30.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.18,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 76.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 28.18,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 23.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.64,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 74.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.64,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 25.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Swansea City B-21",
"market_prob_pct": 48.44,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Queens Park Rangers B-21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Swansea City B-21\u0027s win probability at 48.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Swansea City B-21",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Swansea City B-21 1.39 xG vs Queens Park Rangers B-21 1.21 \u2192 Swansea City B-21 39.5%",
"Market: Swansea City B-21 ~48.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Queens Park Rangers B-21 \u2193 -13.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Swansea City B-21, but sharp money moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.98,
"hero_label": "Swansea City B-21",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Queens Park Rangers B-21 odds shortened \u2193 -13.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Queens Park Rangers B-21, with odds shortening by 13.9%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Swansea City B-21. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Queens Park Rangers B-21 \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Swansea City B-21. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Queens Park Rangers B-21, with odds shortening by 13.9%.",
"Buying interest on Queens Park Rangers B-21 \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Swansea City B-21 above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Queens Park Rangers B-21 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.9%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Queens Park Rangers B-21."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Swansea City B-21",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Swansea City B-21 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.98,
"edge_pp": -8.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Swansea City B-21",
"market_prob_pct": 48.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.56,
"edge_pp": 8.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.41,
"edge_pp": 0.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"market_prob_pct": 30.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Queens Park Rangers B-21 \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Swansea City B-21 (48.4%).",
"However, Queens Park Rangers B-21 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.9%, 6/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Swansea City B-21, Market \u2192 Swansea City B-21, Recent sharp money \u2192 Queens Park Rangers B-21.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.2
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Queens Park Rangers B-21 (13.9%, 6/7) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.29",
"2.99"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 2.99 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 12m",
"pick_team": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.99"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
2.99,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.8",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.99"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Queens Park Rangers B-21 \u2193 -13.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Queens Park Rangers B-21 \u2193 -13.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"steam_score": 72,
"steam_team_name": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "queens-park-rangers-u21",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"away_team_id": 20085,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20085.webp",
"away_team_name": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"away_team_public_id": "0AykKSU52fnjDV",
"away_team_slug": "queens-park-rangers-u21",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1619150,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Swansea City B-21",
"home_team_id": 11912,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11912.webp",
"home_team_name": "Swansea City B-21",
"home_team_public_id": "59bqp3lMNAu0xT",
"home_team_slug": "swansea-city-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "swansea-city-u21",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pembangunan Profesional",
"league_id": 703,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/703.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pembangunan Profesional",
"league_public_id": "3ndHGQfm7HNJhM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-28 18:00:00",
"public_id": "4GORA9HdjKqZaI",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4472,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.079,
"implied_prob": 0.3062,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3062,
"draw": 0.2095,
"home": 0.4844
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.308
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1744,
"best_odd": 4.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0196,
"implied_prob": 0.2095,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3062,
"draw": 0.2095,
"home": 0.4844
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2244
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5195,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0465,
"ev": -0.1724,
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3062,
"draw": 0.2095,
"home": 0.4844
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4379
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.37,
"edge": 0.0659,
"ev": 0.2881,
"implied_prob": 0.2288,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.1342,
"ev": -0.2536,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.171,
"best_no_odd": 3.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2064,
"edge_yes": -0.2064,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.7366,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0263,
"ev_yes": -0.3213,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1292,
"implied_no": 0.2506,
"implied_yes": 0.7494,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0263,
"implied_prob": 0.251,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.2675
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.171,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0352,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.749,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.7137
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.2675,
"p_final_yes": 0.7137,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.142,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.25,
"best_under_odd": 4.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.19,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.9,
"edge_over": -0.2818,
"edge_under": 0.2818,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3975,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1362,
"ev_under": 1.072,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0005,
"implied_over": 0.7638,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7662,
"implied_under": 0.2362,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2338,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0404,
"ev": -0.1362,
"implied_prob": 0.7662,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7259
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0005,
"implied_prob": 0.2338,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2565
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7259,
"p_final_under": 0.2565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.072,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.072,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.072,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01072,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01072,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Swansea City B-21 at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Swansea City B-21 as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Swansea City B-21",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Queens Park Rangers B-21, but the model still strongly favours Swansea City B-21.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1724,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2536,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0465,
"ev": -0.1724,
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Swansea City B-21"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0165,
"market_prob": 0.251,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0263,
"implied_prob": 0.251,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.2675
},
"p_final": 0.2675,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0263,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.171,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0352,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.749,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.7137
}
},
"edge": 0.2064,
"ev": 0.7366,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0227,
"market_prob": 0.2338,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0404,
"ev": -0.1362,
"implied_prob": 0.7662,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7259
},
"p_final": 0.2565,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0005,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0005,
"implied_prob": 0.2338,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2565
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2818,
"ev": 1.072,
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1619150,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.072,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7366,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7366,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Queens Park Rangers B-21",
"home": "Swansea City B-21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.388707,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.072,
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1724,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4844,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2536,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619150,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-28T17:59:40.080281+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Swansea City B-21 & Queens Park Rangers B-21!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pembangunan Profesional — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Reserves | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Swansea City B-21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Fleetwood Town B-21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sheffield United B-21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Barnsley B-21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Peterborough United B-21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday B-21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Huddersfield Town B-21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Wigan Athletic B-21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers B-21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Hull City B-21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall B-21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Reserves | 5 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 15 |
| 2 | Wigan Athletic B-21 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 8 |
| 4 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Swansea City B-21 | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Barnsley B-21 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers B-21 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wednesday B-21 | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Peterborough United B-21 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town B-21 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sheffield United B-21 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town B-21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Hull City B-21 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall B-21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
