The model missed the final outcome (TEC win 2–4).
The model had projected Hercules at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Hercules TEC ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules | 39.9% | 32.8% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.7% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| TEC | 30.6% | 42.5% | -11.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates TEC's win probability at 42.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah TEC win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about TEC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hercules by 11.9 percentage points (51.8% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hercules 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · TEC 30.6%
- xG · Hercules 1.40 — TEC 1.20
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hercules 2.71 · Draw 3.60 · TEC 2.09
- Implied 1X2 · Hercules 32.8% · Draw 24.7% · TEC 42.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hercules 2.71 · Draw 3.60 · TEC 2.09
- Implied 1X2 · Hercules 32.8% · Draw 24.7% · TEC 42.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result TEC win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
14/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.09
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
TEC win · Hercules 2–4 TEC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : TEC and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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},
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
"market_comparison": [
{
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],
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"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
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"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
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"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
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"prob": 8.9
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 8.7
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{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hercules or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hercules or TEC",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or TEC",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Hercules or TEC",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
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"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Hercules"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.6,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"label": "Home",
"market": "Hercules Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "TEC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.52,
"draw": 24.69,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 12:02:25",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 11:33:33",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Hercules",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.69,
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{
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},
{
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{
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],
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"label": "1-1",
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"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0184,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.6,
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2615,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1343,
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.1847,
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"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.1351,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.9,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0323,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3572,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10321.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0332,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0332,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.3,
"text": "-3.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hercules",
"sort_key": 1791.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"alert_team": "Hercules",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.94,
"hero_label": "TEC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.8,
"market_team": "TEC",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Hercules",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hercules at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hercules as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hercules",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0332,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.94,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"steam_team": "Hercules",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hercules at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hercules as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hercules",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0332,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hercules 1.40 xG vs TEC 1.20 \u2192 Hercules 39.9%",
"Market: TEC ~32.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Hercules odds \u2191 +27.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hercules, but the market has moved away from Hercules.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.15,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Hercules",
"market_prob": 32.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.79,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.94,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "TEC",
"market_prob": 42.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.66,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.66,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "TEC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.52,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Hercules"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates TEC\u0027s win probability at 42.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hercules",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hercules 1.40 xG vs TEC 1.20 \u2192 Hercules 39.9%",
"Market: TEC ~32.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Hercules odds \u2191 +27.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Hercules, but the market has moved away from Hercules.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.94,
"hero_label": "TEC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Hercules odds lengthened \u2191 +27.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Hercules has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about TEC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Hercules \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about TEC than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Hercules has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Hercules \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors TEC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Hercules has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "TEC",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices TEC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.15,
"edge_pp": 7.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hercules",
"market_prob_pct": 32.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.79,
"edge_pp": 4.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.69,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.94,
"edge_pp": -11.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "TEC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.52,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Hercules \u2014 odds lengthened by 27.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers TEC (32.8%).",
"However, Hercules has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +27.9%, 4/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hercules, Market \u2192 TEC, while Hercules odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.85,
"closing_odds": 2.09,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.85,
"entry_odds": 2.09,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 27.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 40m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Hercules (27.9%, 4/6) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.75",
"2.45",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.80 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 40m",
"pick_team": "Hercules",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.71,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.2 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Hercules odds \u2191 +27.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hercules",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Hercules odds \u2191 +27.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Market moved away from Hercules while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Hercules",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +27.9%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Hercules",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_team_name": "Hercules",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tec",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "TEC",
"away_team_id": 1255,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1255.webp",
"away_team_name": "TEC",
"away_team_public_id": "5VhQqweuPfWrgQ",
"away_team_slug": "tec",
"country_code": "NL",
"country_display_name": "Netherlands",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_id": 115,
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1618343,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Netherlands",
"home_team_display_name": "Hercules",
"home_team_id": 1264,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1264.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hercules",
"home_team_public_id": "4omGGO1flTEVfB",
"home_team_slug": "hercules",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hercules",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_country_display": "Netherlands",
"league_display_name": "Derde Divisie - Saturday - Saturday",
"league_id": 92,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/92.webp",
"league_name": "Derde Divisie - Saturday - Saturday",
"league_name_canonical": "Derde Divisie - Saturday",
"league_public_id": "1WNFoLf4VlI9Sg",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 12:00:00",
"public_id": "3WNkvagPlYjyy0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3692,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0442,
"ev": -0.2036,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4252,
"draw": 0.2469,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.381
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2784,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.2469,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4252,
"draw": 0.2469,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2602
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4016,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0332,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4252,
"draw": 0.2469,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3567
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": -0.1729,
"ev": -0.3614,
"implied_prob": 0.4785,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": 0.0611,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0307,
"ev": 0.0831,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.146,
"alpha_yes": 0.2007,
"best_no_odd": 2.82,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1266,
"edge_yes": -0.1266,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2887,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0394,
"ev_yes": -0.2615,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1244,
"implied_no": 0.3304,
"implied_yes": 0.6696,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.146,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0394,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3493
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2007,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6438
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3493,
"p_final_yes": 0.6438,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1847,
"alpha_under": 0.1343,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.395,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.605,
"edge_over": -0.1636,
"edge_under": 0.1636,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1351,
"ev_under": 0.3572,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0323,
"implied_over": 0.6456,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6512,
"implied_under": 0.3544,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3487,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1847,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.1351,
"implied_prob": 0.6512,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.62
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1343,
"best_odd": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.3487,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3715
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.62,
"p_final_under": 0.3715,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3572,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3572,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hercules at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hercules as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hercules",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Hercules, but the model still strongly favours Hercules.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0332,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0332,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hercules"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.146,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.3309,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.146,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0394,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3493
},
"p_final": 0.3493,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0394,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2007,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1244,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6438
}
},
"edge": 0.1266,
"ev": 0.2887,
"implied_prob": 0.3304,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1343,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0227,
"market_prob": 0.3487,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1847,
"best_odd": 1.395,
"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.1351,
"implied_prob": 0.6512,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.62
},
"p_final": 0.3715,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0323,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1343,
"best_odd": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.3487,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3715
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1636,
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1618343,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3572,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3572,
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "TEC",
"home": "Hercules"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.131936,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2887,
"implied_prob": 0.3304,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0332,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0832,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1618343,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T12:02:27.518742+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Derde Divisie - Saturday — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACV | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Harkemase Boys | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | SC Genemuiden | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Rijnvogels | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 4 | VV Scherpenzeel | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Excelsior '31 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Sportlust '46 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Dongen | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Purmersteijn | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Poortugaal | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Sparta Nijkerk | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | GOES | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | TEC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | VVSB | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | ADO '20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Zwaluwen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Hoogeveen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Gemert | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | DVS '33 Ermelo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | UNA | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | Dovo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | Groene Ster | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Hercules | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Roosendaal | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Staphorst | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Blauw Geel '38 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 16 | Eemdijk | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Achilles Veen | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | TOGB | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 18 | SVZW | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Nijkerk | 6 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 8 |
| 2 | Rijnvogels | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 14 |
| 3 | Excelsior '31 | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 13 |
| 4 | ACV | 6 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 |
| 6 | Sportlust '46 | 6 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | Dongen | 5 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Harkemase Boys | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 | TEC | 5 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Hollandia | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Noordwijk | 6 | 12 | 0 | +12 | 16 |
| 12 | Excelsior Maassluis | 6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 11 |
| 13 | Hoogeveen | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | FC Lisse | 6 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 15 |
| 15 | VV Scherpenzeel | 6 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 15 |
| 16 | GOES | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | ADO '20 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | Groene Ster | 6 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 19 | UDI '19 | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 20 | Purmersteijn | 5 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 8 |
| 21 | Gemert | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 22 | DVS '33 Ermelo | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5 |
| 23 | SVZW | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 1 |
| 24 | Poortugaal | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 25 | UNA | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 26 | Staphorst | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | Dovo | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 5 |
| 28 | TOGB | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 2 |
| 29 | Blauw Geel '38 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 30 | VVSB | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 31 | Roosendaal | 6 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 32 | EVV | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 1 |
| 33 | Achilles Veen | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 3 |
| 34 | Eemdijk | 6 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 3 |
| 35 | Hercules | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |
| 36 | Zwaluwen | 6 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 7 |
