The model missed the final outcome (Torrijos win 2–0).
The model had projected Quintanar del Rey at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Quintanar del Rey Torrijos ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrijos | 33.3% | 38.4% | -5.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.7% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Quintanar del Rey | 37.1% | 30.0% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Quintanar del Rey's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.0%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Torrijos win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Quintanar del Rey.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Quintanar del Rey by 7.1 percentage points (30.0% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Torrijos 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Quintanar del Rey 37.0%
- xG · Torrijos 1.26 — Quintanar del Rey 1.34
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Torrijos 2.36 · Draw 2.86 · Quintanar del Rey 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Torrijos 38.4% · Draw 31.7% · Quintanar del Rey 30.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Torrijos 2.36 · Draw 2.86 · Quintanar del Rey 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Torrijos 38.4% · Draw 31.7% · Quintanar del Rey 30.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Torrijos win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
22/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.02
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Torrijos win · Torrijos 2–0 Quintanar del Rey
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"over_under": {
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},
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 15:29:55",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 15:02:42",
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"largest_move_kind": null,
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
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{
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},
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},
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10081.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0373,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0373,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Quintanar del Rey",
"sort_key": 1790.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.08,
"hero_label": "Quintanar del Rey",
"market_prob_pct": 30.0,
"market_team": "Torrijos",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Quintanar del Rey",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1616,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1616,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Quintanar del Rey at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Quintanar del Rey as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Quintanar del Rey",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0373,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.08,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Torrijos",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1616,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1616,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Quintanar del Rey at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Quintanar del Rey as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Quintanar del Rey",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0373,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Torrijos 1.26 xG vs Quintanar del Rey 1.34 \u2192 Quintanar del Rey 37.1%",
"Market: Torrijos ~30.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Torrijos +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Quintanar del Rey with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.05,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Torrijos",
"market_prob": 38.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.03,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.08,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Quintanar del Rey",
"market_prob": 29.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.02,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.02,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.35,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.35,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Quintanar del Rey",
"market_prob_pct": 29.98,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Torrijos"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Quintanar del Rey\u0027s win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 30.0%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Quintanar del Rey",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Torrijos 1.26 xG vs Quintanar del Rey 1.34 \u2192 Quintanar del Rey 37.1%",
"Market: Torrijos ~30.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Torrijos +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Quintanar del Rey with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.08,
"hero_label": "Quintanar del Rey",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Quintanar del Rey.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Quintanar del Rey.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Quintanar del Rey."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Quintanar del Rey.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Quintanar del Rey",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.1,
"lead": "The model rates Quintanar del Rey considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.05,
"edge_pp": -5.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Torrijos",
"market_prob_pct": 38.36,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.03,
"edge_pp": -2.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.08,
"edge_pp": 7.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Quintanar del Rey",
"market_prob_pct": 29.98,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Quintanar del Rey.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Torrijos (30.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Quintanar del Rey, Market \u2192 Torrijos, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.11,
"closing_odds": 3.02,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.11,
"entry_odds": 3.02,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Torrijos",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_team_name": "Torrijos",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "quintanar-del-rey",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Quintanar del Rey",
"away_team_id": 9906,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9906.webp",
"away_team_name": "Quintanar del Rey",
"away_team_public_id": "4YFCuSKlNP3HCY",
"away_team_slug": "quintanar-del-rey",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1617939,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Torrijos",
"home_team_id": 9909,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9909.webp",
"home_team_name": "Torrijos",
"home_team_public_id": "5Q3LElxofjbt2O",
"home_team_slug": "torrijos",
"ht.home_team_slug": "torrijos",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 18",
"league_id": 456,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/456.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 18",
"league_public_id": "0ss7rLMJV0xoXa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 15:30:00",
"public_id": "3duMXRoT4LESA7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2682,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0373,
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2998,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3836
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3188
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4361,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.3166,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2998,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3836
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.3076
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4161,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1439,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2998,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3836
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3628
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": 0.0394,
"ev": 0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.0537,
"ev": -0.1535,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.0902,
"ev": -0.213,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2162,
"alpha_yes": 0.1966,
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0835,
"edge_yes": 0.0835,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1142,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0502,
"implied_no": 0.5385,
"implied_yes": 0.4615,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5211
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4773
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5211,
"p_final_yes": 0.4773,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1549,
"alpha_under": 0.213,
"best_over_odd": 2.41,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.355,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.0902,
"edge_under": -0.0902,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1616,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1133,
"implied_over": 0.3918,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3891,
"implied_under": 0.6082,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6109,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1549,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4035
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1133,
"implied_prob": 0.6109,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5911
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4035,
"p_final_under": 0.5911,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1616,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1616,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1616,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1616,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1616,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Quintanar del Rey at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Quintanar del Rey as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Quintanar del Rey",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Torrijos, but the model still strongly favours Quintanar del Rey.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0373,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0373,
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Quintanar del Rey"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0166,
"market_prob": 0.4607,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2162,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5211
},
"p_final": 0.4773,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0502,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1966,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4773
}
},
"edge": 0.0835,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4615,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1549,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0144,
"market_prob": 0.3891,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1549,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4035
},
"p_final": 0.4035,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.213,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1133,
"implied_prob": 0.6109,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5911
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0902,
"ev": 0.1616,
"implied_prob": 0.3918,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1617939,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1616,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4615,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4615,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Quintanar del Rey",
"home": "Torrijos"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.054524,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1616,
"implied_prob": 0.3918,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0373,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33112582781456956,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1189,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1617939,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T15:29:57.059683+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Tercera División RFEF - Kumpulan 18 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Marchamalo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Noblejas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Torrijos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Tarancón | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Illescas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Almansa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Toledo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | La Solana | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Socuéllamos | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | CD Villa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Quintanar del Rey | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Villarrubia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | San Clemente | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarancón | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Marchamalo | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Noblejas | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Toledo | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 5 |
| 6 | Almansa | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Quintanar del Rey | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 8 | Manchego | 3 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 | La Solana | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Guadalajara II | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | Torrijos | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | Illescas | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Villacañas | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | CD Villa | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarrubia | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | San Clemente | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Socuéllamos | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
