The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Silva at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Silva Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Silva 1.39 — Villalbés 1.21
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Silva 0–0 Villalbés
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"home_played": 4,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
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},
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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"prob": 8.7
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],
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},
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 11.1,
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"label": "Home",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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},
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"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 14:07:54",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 13:49:14",
"has_data": true,
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.51,
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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"same_bookmaker": true,
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}
},
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"top5": [
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},
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
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},
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"under": {
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},
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},
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"text": "+13.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"no": {
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},
"p_final": 0.5024,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1637,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.4,
"text": "-16.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0154,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.5,
"text": "+1.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0154,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 5212.32,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.013,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.013,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Silva",
"sort_key": 1796.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.26,
"hero_label": "Silva",
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"market_team": "Villalb\u00e9s",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Silva",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Silva at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Silva as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Silva",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.013,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.26,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Silva",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Silva at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Silva as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Silva",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.013,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Silva 1.39 xG vs Villalb\u00e9s 1.21 \u2192 Silva 39.5%",
"Market: Villalb\u00e9s ~32.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Silva +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Silva with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.26,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Silva",
"market_prob": 32.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.8,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.46,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Villalb\u00e9s",
"market_prob": 36.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.02,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.02,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Silva",
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Silva"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Silva\u0027s win probability at 39.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.2%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Silva",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Silva 1.39 xG vs Villalb\u00e9s 1.21 \u2192 Silva 39.5%",
"Market: Villalb\u00e9s ~32.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Silva +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Silva with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.26,
"hero_label": "Silva",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Silva.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Silva.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Silva.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Silva."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Silva.",
"Recent line movement on Silva (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Silva."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Silva",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.3,
"lead": "The model rates Silva considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.26,
"edge_pp": 7.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Silva",
"market_prob_pct": 32.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.8,
"edge_pp": -1.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.31,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.46,
"edge_pp": -5.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Villalb\u00e9s",
"market_prob_pct": 36.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Silva.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Villalb\u00e9s (32.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Silva, Market \u2192 Villalb\u00e9s, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.59,
"closing_odds": 2.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.59,
"entry_odds": 2.81,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Silva",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Silva",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "villalbes",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Villalb\u00e9s",
"away_team_id": 9618,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9618.webp",
"away_team_name": "Villalb\u00e9s",
"away_team_public_id": "0QstwxKaxy2Zwv",
"away_team_slug": "villalbes",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1612745,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Silva",
"home_team_id": 9615,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9615.webp",
"home_team_name": "Silva",
"home_team_public_id": "2vnxU4eWQzWNet",
"home_team_slug": "silva",
"ht.home_team_slug": "silva",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 1",
"league_id": 439,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/439.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 1",
"league_public_id": "2fRyzrmay3Uu5M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
"public_id": "3iTMO6x8yGjjId",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4132,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.3649,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3649,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.322
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3423
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4376,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3649,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.322
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.3051
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4008,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": -0.013,
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3649,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.322
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3512
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": -0.0929,
"ev": -0.2304,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": -0.0513,
"ev": -0.1482,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": 0.0391,
"ev": 0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2077,
"alpha_yes": 0.2077,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0502,
"edge_yes": 0.0502,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1637,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1044,
"ev_yes": 0.0154,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0655,
"implied_no": 0.5072,
"implied_yes": 0.4928,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4976
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5024
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4976,
"p_final_yes": 0.5024,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2031,
"alpha_under": 0.2234,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.195,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.0636,
"edge_under": -0.0636,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1327,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0557,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1075,
"implied_over": 0.4184,
"implied_over_mf": 0.417,
"implied_under": 0.5816,
"implied_under_mf": 0.583,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 2.195,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4302
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5685
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4302,
"p_final_under": 0.5685,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Silva at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Silva as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Silva",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Silva, but the model still strongly favours Silva.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.013,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": -0.013,
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Silva"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4918,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4976
},
"p_final": 0.5024,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0655,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5024
}
},
"edge": 0.0502,
"ev": 0.0154,
"implied_prob": 0.4928,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.195,
"edge": 0.0132,
"market_prob": 0.417,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 2.195,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4302
},
"p_final": 0.4302,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0557,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5685
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0636,
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612745,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1327,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Villalb\u00e9s",
"home": "Silva"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044773,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.013,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.322,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1097,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612745,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T14:07:56.060264+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Tercera División RFEF - Kumpulan 1 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Antela | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Sarriana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Villalbés | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Alondras | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Pontevedra II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Portonovo SD | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Barco | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Lalin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Atlético Arteixo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Silva | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Celtiga | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo III | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Estradense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Arenteiro | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Viveiro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Coruña | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Somozas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alondras | 5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 2 | Pontevedra II | 4 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Boiro | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Sarriana | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Villalbés | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Coruña | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Antela | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Barco | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Celtiga | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Celta de Vigo III | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Estradense | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Silva | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Lalin | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 | Atlético Arteixo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Arenteiro | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Somozas | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
