Sep 29, 2026 - 18:00
2
1.41
0
1.19
xG Accuracy: 61%
AI correctly predicted the Estudiantes La Plata Res. win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Estudiantes La Plata Res. Estudiantes La Plata Res. ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes La Plata Res. | 40.4% | 32.4% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 29.6% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Defensa y Justicia Res. | 30.1% | 38.0% | -7.9 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Estudiantes La Plata Res.'s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.4%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Estudiantes La Plata Res. win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Estudiantes La Plata Res..
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Estudiantes La Plata Res. more conservatively (32.4% vs model 40.4%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Estudiantes La Plata Res. win 2–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Estudiantes La Plata Res. 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Defensa y Justicia Res. 30.1%
- xG · Estudiantes La Plata Res. 1.41 — Defensa y Justicia Res. 1.19
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Estudiantes La Plata Res. 2.43 · Draw 3.05 · Defensa y Justicia Res. 2.78
- Implied 1X2 · Estudiantes La Plata Res. 37.4% · Draw 29.8% · Defensa y Justicia Res. 32.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Estudiantes La Plata Res. 2.83 · Draw 3.10 · Defensa y Justicia Res. 2.41
- Implied 1X2 · Estudiantes La Plata Res. 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Defensa y Justicia Res. 38.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Estudiantes La Plata Res. win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
20/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Estudiantes La Plata Res. win · Estudiantes La Plata Res. 2–0 Defensa y Justicia Res.
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
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}
},
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"ev_no": -0.1161,
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"text": "-11.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0515,
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.8,
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"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +36.6%",
"alert_team": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.03,
"hero_label": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"market_prob_pct": 32.4,
"market_team": "Defensa y Justicia Res.",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res.."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res.."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1455,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estudiantes La Plata Res. at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estudiantes La Plata Res. as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Estudiantes La Plata Res. \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612060 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0072,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.03,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.03,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
"steam_team": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res.."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res.."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1455,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estudiantes La Plata Res. at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estudiantes La Plata Res. as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Estudiantes La Plata Res. \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612060 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0072,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Estudiantes La Plata Res. 1.41 xG vs Defensa y Justicia Res. 1.19 \u2192 Estudiantes La Plata Res. 40.4%",
"Market: Defensa y Justicia Res. ~32.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Estudiantes La Plata Res. odds \u2191 +36.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.03,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"market_prob": 32.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.13,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.9,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Defensa y Justicia Res.",
"market_prob": 38.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.7,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.11,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.11,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"market_prob_pct": 32.39,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Estudiantes La Plata Res."
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Estudiantes La Plata Res.\u0027s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 32.4%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.03,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.0,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res.. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Estudiantes La Plata Res. 1.41 xG vs Defensa y Justicia Res. 1.19 \u2192 Estudiantes La Plata Res. 40.4%",
"Market: Defensa y Justicia Res. ~32.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Estudiantes La Plata Res. odds \u2191 +36.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.03,
"hero_label": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Estudiantes La Plata Res. odds lengthened \u2191 +36.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Estudiantes La Plata Res.."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"Recent line movement on Estudiantes La Plata Res. (\u2191 +36.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Estudiantes La Plata Res.."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.0,
"lead": "The model rates Estudiantes La Plata Res. considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.03,
"edge_pp": 8.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"market_prob_pct": 32.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.13,
"edge_pp": -0.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.9,
"edge_pp": -7.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Defensa y Justicia Res.",
"market_prob_pct": 38.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Defensa y Justicia Res. (32.4%).",
"However, Estudiantes La Plata Res. has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +36.6%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Estudiantes La Plata Res., Market \u2192 Defensa y Justicia Res., while Estudiantes La Plata Res. odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.34,
"closing_odds": 2.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.34,
"entry_odds": 2.83,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 36.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened Estudiantes La Plata Res. together (36.6% drift, score 97) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 36.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.83",
"2.33",
"1.83"
],
"display": "2.50 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.83,
2.83,
2.43,
2.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,7.2 56.0,5.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.83,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Estudiantes La Plata Res. odds \u2191 +36.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Estudiantes La Plata Res. odds \u2191 +36.6% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"summary": "Market moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res. while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +36.6%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"steam_score": 97,
"steam_team_name": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "defensa-y-justicia-res",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Defensa y Justicia Res.",
"away_team_id": 18684,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18684.webp",
"away_team_name": "Defensa y Justicia Res.",
"away_team_public_id": "4zw70eMcZ1WTgA",
"away_team_slug": "defensa-y-justicia-res",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612060,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"home_team_id": 18685,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18685.webp",
"home_team_name": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"home_team_public_id": "2Wf3axyHHp7Ob5",
"home_team_slug": "estudiantes-la-plata-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "estudiantes-la-plata-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Simpanan Argentina",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Simpanan Argentina",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3OT7EEL828ZCap",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3965,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.159,
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2957,
"home": 0.3239
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.349
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2993,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0005,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.2957,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2957,
"home": 0.3239
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2952
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3954,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0072,
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2957,
"home": 0.3239
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.3559
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.1138,
"ev": -0.2742,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0285,
"ev": -0.0884,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0514,
"ev": 0.1455,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.218,
"alpha_yes": 0.2398,
"best_no_odd": 1.93,
"best_yes_odd": 1.75,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0211,
"edge_yes": 0.0211,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1161,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0965,
"ev_yes": -0.0515,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0792,
"implied_no": 0.4791,
"implied_yes": 0.5209,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.218,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": -0.0045,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.4788,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4743
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2398,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.5212,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5262
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4743,
"p_final_yes": 0.5262,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2165,
"alpha_under": 0.2381,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.76,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.01,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.69,
"edge_over": 0.027,
"edge_under": -0.027,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0709,
"ev_under": -0.0883,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0921,
"implied_over": 0.455,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4568,
"implied_under": 0.545,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5432,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2165,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4622
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2381,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.5432,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5372
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4622,
"p_final_under": 0.5372,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "over",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1455,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res.."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1455,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estudiantes La Plata Res. at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estudiantes La Plata Res. as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estudiantes La Plata Res.",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Estudiantes La Plata Res. \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1612060 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"Decision strength: 3.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Estudiantes La Plata Res., but the model still strongly favours Estudiantes La Plata Res..",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0072,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0072,
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Estudiantes La Plata Res."
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2398,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"edge": 0.005,
"market_prob": 0.5212,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.218,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": -0.0045,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.4788,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4743
},
"p_final": 0.5262,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0792,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2398,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.5212,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5262
}
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.5209,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2165,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0055,
"market_prob": 0.4568,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2165,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4622
},
"p_final": 0.4622,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0709,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2381,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0921,
"implied_prob": 0.5432,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5372
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.027,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612060,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Defensa y Justicia Res.",
"home": "Estudiantes La Plata Res."
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0072,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3239,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35335689045936397,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1456,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+14.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612060,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T17:59:48.395618+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Estudiantes La Plata Res. & Defensa y Justicia Res.!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Simpanan Argentina — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Res. | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Res. | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Res. | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Res. | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Res. | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Res. | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Res. | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Res. | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Res. | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Res. | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Res. | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Res. | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Res. | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Res. | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Res. | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Res. | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Res. | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Res. | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Res. | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Res. | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Res. | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Res. | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Res. | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Res. | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Res. | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Res. | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Res. | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Res. | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
