Sep 24, 2026 - 22:00
0
1.26
1
1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
AI correctly predicted the Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Rivadavia Res. | 33.3% | 37.1% | -3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.3% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 37.1% | 32.6% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win 0–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Independiente Rivadavia Res. 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 37.0%
- xG · Independiente Rivadavia Res. 1.26 — Gimnasia Mendoza 2 1.34
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Independiente Rivadavia Res. 2.47 · Draw 3.03 · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 2.81
- Implied 1X2 · Independiente Rivadavia Res. 37.1% · Draw 30.3% · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 32.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Independiente Rivadavia Res. 2.47 · Draw 3.03 · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 2.81
- Implied 1X2 · Independiente Rivadavia Res. 37.1% · Draw 30.3% · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 32.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
26/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win · Independiente Rivadavia Res. 0–1 Gimnasia Mendoza 2
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0309,
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"alert_team": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.5,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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{
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia Mendoza 2 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia Mendoza 2 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
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],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gimnasia Mendoza 2).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0309,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.43,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"steam_team": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gimnasia Mendoza 2)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gimnasia Mendoza 2)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia Mendoza 2 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia Mendoza 2 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gimnasia Mendoza 2).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0309,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Independiente Rivadavia Res. 1.26 xG vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 1.34 \u2192 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 37.1%",
"Market: Independiente Rivadavia Res. ~32.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Rivadavia Res. odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gimnasia Mendoza 2 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.81,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"market_prob": 37.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.63,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"market_prob": 32.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.87,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.84,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.84,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"market_prob_pct": 32.63,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia Res."
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 4.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+4.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Independiente Rivadavia Res. 1.26 xG vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 1.34 \u2192 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 37.1%",
"Market: Independiente Rivadavia Res. ~32.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Rivadavia Res. odds \u2191 +6.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gimnasia Mendoza 2 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.43,
"hero_label": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Independiente Rivadavia Res. odds lengthened \u2191 +6.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Independiente Rivadavia Res. has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Independiente Rivadavia Res. \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Independiente Rivadavia Res. has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Independiente Rivadavia Res. \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Independiente Rivadavia Res. has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.81,
"edge_pp": -3.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"market_prob_pct": 37.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.63,
"edge_pp": -0.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.43,
"edge_pp": 4.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"market_prob_pct": 32.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Independiente Rivadavia Res. \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Independiente Rivadavia Res. (32.6%).",
"Independiente Rivadavia Res. odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.5%, 5/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gimnasia Mendoza 2, Market \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia Res., while Independiente Rivadavia Res. odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.59,
"closing_odds": 2.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.59,
"entry_odds": 2.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Independiente Rivadavia Res. (6.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.47",
"2.38",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.47 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 45m",
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.47,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gimnasia-mendoza-2",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"away_team_id": 27272,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"away_team_public_id": "0ST8s2swafcY40",
"away_team_slug": "gimnasia-mendoza-2",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1612045,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"home_team_id": 22938,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22938.webp",
"home_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia Res.",
"home_team_public_id": "5lzWP2ieep6D1f",
"home_team_slug": "independiente-riva-res",
"ht.home_team_slug": "independiente-riva-res",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Simpanan Argentina",
"league_id": 906,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/906.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Simpanan Argentina",
"league_public_id": "5YMAxRUD9HbQHC",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 19:00:00",
"public_id": "1QLVrkFT0c3NT8",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4201,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.3263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3263,
"draw": 0.3026,
"home": 0.3712
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3449
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.297,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.3026,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3263,
"draw": 0.3026,
"home": 0.3712
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.3006
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4246,
"best_odd": 2.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3263,
"draw": 0.3026,
"home": 0.3712
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3552
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": 0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.03,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.1032,
"implied_prob": 0.33,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.47,
"edge": -0.0714,
"ev": -0.1763,
"implied_prob": 0.4049,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2156,
"alpha_yes": 0.2372,
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.78,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0284,
"edge_yes": 0.0284,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1061,
"ev_yes": -0.0299,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0833,
"implied_no": 0.4834,
"implied_yes": 0.5166,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.1061,
"implied_prob": 0.4828,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4768
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.5172,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5238
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4768,
"p_final_yes": 0.5238,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2151,
"alpha_under": 0.2366,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0287,
"edge_under": -0.0287,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.073,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0974,
"implied_over": 0.4533,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4526,
"implied_under": 0.5467,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5474,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0063,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4589
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2366,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.007,
"ev": -0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5405
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4589,
"p_final_under": 0.5405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gimnasia Mendoza 2)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia Mendoza 2 at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia Mendoza 2 as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gimnasia Mendoza 2).",
"Decision strength: 4.2/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0309,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0218,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.3263,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0066,
"market_prob": 0.5172,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.1061,
"implied_prob": 0.4828,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4768
},
"p_final": 0.5238,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0833,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2372,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.5172,
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"p_final": 0.5238
}
},
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": -0.0299,
"implied_prob": 0.5166,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0063,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0063,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4589
},
"p_final": 0.4589,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.073,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2366,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.007,
"ev": -0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5405
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1612045,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0218,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gimnasia Mendoza 2",
"home": "Independiente Rivadavia Res."
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0309,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.81,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3263,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35587188612099646,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0411,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+4.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1612045,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T18:59:07.482153+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Simpanan Argentina — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors Res. | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| 3 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 4 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Independiente Res. | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36 |
| 6 | Lanús Res. | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys Res. | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia Res. | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Res. | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 |
| 13 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 14 | Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 | Huracán Res. | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 | Platense Res. | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Deportivo Riestra Res. | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 20 | Independiente Rivadavia Res. | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 21 | Instituto Res. | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 22 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 24 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 25 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 26 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 27 | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 28 | Colón Res. | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 29 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 30 | Barracas Central Res. | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 32 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 33 | Godoy Cruz Res. | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 34 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 35 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 36 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sársfield Reserves | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 | Lanús Res. | 19 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 35 |
| 3 | Independiente Res. | 19 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia Res. | 18 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors Res. | 20 | 36 | 12 | +24 | 39 |
| 6 | Racing Club Reserves | 21 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 39 |
| 7 | River Plate Reserves | 21 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 37 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys Res. | 19 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 34 |
| 9 | Talleres Córdoba Reserves | 18 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 | Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 18 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Atlético Tucumán Reserves | 19 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 30 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata Res. | 18 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra Res. | 18 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 14 | Rosario Central Reserves | 18 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 |
| 15 | Argentinos Juniors Reserves | 18 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 16 | Huracán Res. | 18 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 | Unión Santa Fe Reserves | 18 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 18 | Independiente Rivadavia Res. | 18 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
| 19 | San Lorenzo Reserves | 18 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
| 20 | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 18 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 19 |
| 21 | Atlético Rafaela 2 | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 12 |
| 22 | Quilmes 2 | 18 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 33 |
| 23 | Instituto Res. | 18 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 24 | Ferro 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 25 | Godoy Cruz Res. | 18 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 18 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 23 |
| 27 | Platense Res. | 18 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 26 |
| 28 | Aldosivi Reserves | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
| 29 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 23 |
| 30 | Sarmiento Reserves | 18 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
| 31 | San Martín San Juan Reserves | 18 | 16 | 59 | -43 | 8 |
| 32 | Colón Res. | 18 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 33 | Tigre Reserves | 18 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 34 | Banfield Reserves | 18 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 35 | Barracas Central Res. | 18 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 17 |
| 36 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 11 |
