The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Muharraq at 47.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Muharraq Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muharraq | 47.8% | 63.6% | -15.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.5% | 26.0% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Al Ahli Bahrain | 23.7% | 10.4% | +13.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Muharraq's win probability at 63.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.8%, a difference of 15.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Muharraq than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Muharraq; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Muharraq by 15.8 percentage points (63.6% vs model 47.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Muharraq 47.8% · Draw 28.5% · Al Ahli Bahrain 23.7%
- xG · Muharraq 1.56 — Al Ahli Bahrain 1.04
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Muharraq 1.44 · Draw 3.52 · Al Ahli Bahrain 8.79
- Implied 1X2 · Muharraq 63.6% · Draw 26.0% · Al Ahli Bahrain 10.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Muharraq 1.44 · Draw 3.52 · Al Ahli Bahrain 8.79
- Implied 1X2 · Muharraq 63.6% · Draw 26.0% · Al Ahli Bahrain 10.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Bahrain — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalidiya | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Riffa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Sitra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Muharraq | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Ahli Bahrain | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Al-Hidd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Al Ittifaq Maqaba | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Najma Bahrain | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | A'Ali | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Manama | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | East Riffa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Malkiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalidiya | 3 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Riffa | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 7 |
| 3 | Muharraq | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Sitra | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Najma Bahrain | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 6 | Manama | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Bahrain | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al-Hidd | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | A'Ali | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Al Ittifaq Maqaba | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | East Riffa | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Malkiya | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
