The model missed the final outcome (TOŠK Tešanj win 2–0).
The model had projected Stupčanica Olovo at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Stupčanica Olovo TOŠK Tešanj ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOŠK Tešanj | 34.7% | 28.9% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Stupčanica Olovo | 35.6% | 44.8% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Stupčanica Olovo's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah TOŠK Tešanj win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stupčanica Olovo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Stupčanica Olovo; match finished TOŠK Tešanj
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Stupčanica Olovo by 9.1 percentage points (44.7% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · TOŠK Tešanj 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Stupčanica Olovo 35.6%
- xG · TOŠK Tešanj 1.29 — Stupčanica Olovo 1.31
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · TOŠK Tešanj 3.10 · Draw 3.40 · Stupčanica Olovo 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · TOŠK Tešanj 28.9% · Draw 26.3% · Stupčanica Olovo 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · TOŠK Tešanj 3.10 · Draw 3.40 · Stupčanica Olovo 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · TOŠK Tešanj 28.9% · Draw 26.3% · Stupčanica Olovo 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result TOŠK Tešanj win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
54/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
TOŠK Tešanj win · TOŠK Tešanj 2–0 Stupčanica Olovo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1758,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.6,
"text": "-17.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0549,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.5,
"text": "-5.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"sort_key": 1786.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.2,
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"hero_edge_pp": -9.13,
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"market_prob_pct": 44.8,
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"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stup\u010danica Olovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stup\u010danica Olovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1758,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.13,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stup\u010danica Olovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stup\u010danica Olovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1758,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj 1.29 xG vs Stup\u010danica Olovo 1.31 \u2192 Stup\u010danica Olovo 35.6%",
"Market: Stup\u010danica Olovo ~44.8% implied",
"Market Steam: TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stup\u010danica Olovo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"market_prob": 28.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"market_prob": 44.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.95,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.95,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"market_prob_pct": 44.77,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Stup\u010danica Olovo\u0027s win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Stup\u010danica Olovo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj 1.29 xG vs Stup\u010danica Olovo 1.31 \u2192 Stup\u010danica Olovo 35.6%",
"Market: Stup\u010danica Olovo ~44.8% implied",
"Market Steam: TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stup\u010danica Olovo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.13,
"hero_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Stup\u010danica Olovo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Stup\u010danica Olovo relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Stup\u010danica Olovo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Stup\u010danica Olovo above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Stup\u010danica Olovo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.81,
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"market_prob_pct": 28.89,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.31,
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.13,
"edge_pp": -9.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"market_prob_pct": 44.77,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Stup\u010danica Olovo relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stup\u010danica Olovo (44.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Stup\u010danica Olovo, Market \u2192 Stup\u010danica Olovo, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"closing_odds": 2.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/4",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "stupcanica-olovo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"away_team_id": 17901,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17901.webp",
"away_team_name": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"away_team_public_id": "5upsz3toBiWp0e",
"away_team_slug": "stupcanica-olovo",
"country_code": "BA",
"country_display_name": "Bosnia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ba.svg",
"country_id": 22,
"country_name": "Bosnia",
"fixture_id": 1611078,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bosnia",
"home_team_display_name": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"home_team_id": 3380,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3380.webp",
"home_team_name": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj",
"home_team_public_id": "5I2XjQFFx8AH1Q",
"home_team_slug": "tosk-tesanj",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tosk-tesanj",
"league_country": "Bosnia",
"league_country_display": "Bosnia",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pertama - FBiH",
"league_id": 316,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/316.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pertama - FBiH",
"league_public_id": "2whc9TyqMLfubT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:30:00",
"public_id": "2Nztuq9PAWcpjW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.388,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0356,
"ev": -0.1758,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4477,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.2889
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4121
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.285,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.2634,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4477,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.2889
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2729
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2737,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.2889,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4477,
"draw": 0.2634,
"home": 0.2889
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3049
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1441,
"ev": -0.2881,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": 0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1529,
"alpha_yes": 0.1682,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0195,
"edge_yes": -0.0195,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0792,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0908,
"implied_no": 0.4355,
"implied_yes": 0.5645,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4385
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0908,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5612
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4385,
"p_final_yes": 0.5612,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2309,
"alpha_under": 0.2099,
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.925,
"edge_over": -0.0501,
"edge_under": 0.0501,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1067,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0708,
"implied_over": 0.5321,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5267,
"implied_under": 0.4679,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4733,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2309,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4827
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5164,
"p_final_under": 0.4827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stup\u010danica Olovo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stup\u010danica Olovo as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stup\u010danica Olovo).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1758,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0356,
"ev": -0.1758,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Stup\u010danica Olovo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.003,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4385
},
"p_final": 0.4385,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0792,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1682,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0908,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5612
}
},
"edge": 0.0195,
"ev": -0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.4733,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2309,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.5267,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"p_final": 0.4827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.925,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4827
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0501,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1611078,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"home": "TO\u0160K Te\u0161anj"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1758,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2882,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1611078,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:30:23.119956+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pertama - FBiH — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travnik | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Posušje | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Čapljina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tomislav | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Vitez | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stupčanica Olovo | 6 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 15 |
| 2 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 6 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Travnik | 6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 | Sloboda Tuzla | 6 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 | Posušje | 6 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Igman Konjic | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Budućnost Banovići | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 | Tomislav | 6 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 11 | TOŠK Tešanj | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Čapljina | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 13 | Vitez | 6 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Radnik Hadžići | 6 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Rudar Kakanj | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
