AI correctly predicted the Winterthur II win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Winterthur II Winterthur II ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winterthur II | 38.0% | 44.3% | -6.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Freienbach | 32.4% | 31.7% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Winterthur II's win probability at 44.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Winterthur II win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Winterthur II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Winterthur II higher (44.3% vs model 38.0%, 6.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Winterthur II win 3–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Winterthur II 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Freienbach 32.4%
- xG · Winterthur II 1.36 — Freienbach 1.24
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Winterthur II 2.04 · Draw 3.78 · Freienbach 2.85
- Implied 1X2 · Winterthur II 44.3% · Draw 23.9% · Freienbach 31.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Winterthur II 2.04 · Draw 3.78 · Freienbach 2.85
- Implied 1X2 · Winterthur II 44.3% · Draw 23.9% · Freienbach 31.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Winterthur II win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
68/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Winterthur II win · Winterthur II 3–2 Freienbach
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
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"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Winterthur II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Winterthur II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Winterthur II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Winterthur II).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1479,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.33,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Winterthur II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Winterthur II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Winterthur II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Winterthur II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3934,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Winterthur II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Winterthur II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Winterthur II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Winterthur II).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1479,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Winterthur II 1.36 xG vs Freienbach 1.24 \u2192 Winterthur II 38.0%",
"Market: Winterthur II ~44.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Winterthur II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Winterthur II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.33,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Winterthur II",
"market_prob": 44.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.65,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Freienbach",
"market_prob": 31.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.71,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.71,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.73,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.73,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Winterthur II",
"market_prob_pct": 44.34,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Winterthur II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Winterthur II\u0027s win probability at 44.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Winterthur II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Winterthur II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Winterthur II 1.36 xG vs Freienbach 1.24 \u2192 Winterthur II 38.0%",
"Market: Winterthur II ~44.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Winterthur II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Winterthur II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.33,
"hero_label": "Winterthur II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Winterthur II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Winterthur II.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Winterthur II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Winterthur II."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Winterthur II above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Winterthur II (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Winterthur II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Winterthur II",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Winterthur II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.33,
"edge_pp": -6.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Winterthur II",
"market_prob_pct": 44.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.66,
"edge_pp": 5.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.93,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.65,
"edge_pp": 0.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Freienbach",
"market_prob_pct": 31.74,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Winterthur II.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Winterthur II (44.3%).",
"Winterthur II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.02,
"closing_odds": 2.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.02,
"entry_odds": 2.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Winterthur II",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Winterthur II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "freienbach",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Freienbach",
"away_team_id": 6625,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6625.webp",
"away_team_name": "Freienbach",
"away_team_public_id": "4vE6TolnTyn8wJ",
"away_team_slug": "freienbach",
"country_code": "CH",
"country_display_name": "Switzerland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
"country_id": 149,
"country_name": "Switzerland",
"fixture_id": 1609670,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Switzerland",
"home_team_display_name": "Winterthur II",
"home_team_id": 12721,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12721.webp",
"home_team_name": "Winterthur II",
"home_team_public_id": "46vx7sHETgKWYL",
"home_team_slug": "winterthur-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "winterthur-ii",
"league_country": "Switzerland",
"league_country_display": "Switzerland",
"league_display_name": "1. Liga Classic - Kumpulan 3",
"league_id": 601,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/601.webp",
"league_name": "1. Liga Classic - Kumpulan 3",
"league_public_id": "1MfULZlISRiBaU",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5wjZ1EFpbuppGT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4457,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.0875,
"implied_prob": 0.3174,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3174,
"draw": 0.2393,
"home": 0.4434
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3202
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2745,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.2393,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3174,
"draw": 0.2393,
"home": 0.4434
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2548
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4075,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1479,
"implied_prob": 0.4434,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3174,
"draw": 0.2393,
"home": 0.4434
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4177
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": -0.0272,
"ev": -0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": 0.0314,
"ev": 0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.1099,
"ev": -0.2241,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1475,
"alpha_yes": 0.2029,
"best_no_odd": 2.78,
"best_yes_odd": 1.37,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1173,
"edge_yes": -0.1173,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2677,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.042,
"ev_yes": -0.2547,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1234,
"implied_no": 0.3387,
"implied_yes": 0.6613,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1475,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3535
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6398
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3535,
"p_final_yes": 0.6398,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1833,
"alpha_under": 0.1333,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.69,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.62,
"edge_over": -0.1571,
"edge_under": 0.1571,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1399,
"ev_under": 0.3934,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0357,
"implied_over": 0.6391,
"implied_over_mf": 0.655,
"implied_under": 0.3609,
"implied_under_mf": 0.345,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1833,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1399,
"implied_prob": 0.655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6233
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3681
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6233,
"p_final_under": 0.3681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3934,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3934,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Winterthur II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3934,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Winterthur II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Winterthur II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Winterthur II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +39.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +39.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+39.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Winterthur II).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1479,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1479,
"implied_prob": 0.4434,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Winterthur II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1475,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.3358,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1475,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3535
},
"p_final": 0.3535,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 1.37,
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6398
}
},
"edge": 0.1173,
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3387,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"market_prob": 0.345,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1833,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0317,
"ev": -0.1399,
"implied_prob": 0.655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6233
},
"p_final": 0.3681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0231,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3681
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1571,
"ev": 0.3934,
"implied_prob": 0.3609,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1609670,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3934,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3387,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3387,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Freienbach",
"home": "Winterthur II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.142647,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3934,
"implied_prob": 0.3609,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1479,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609670,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:10:10.392303+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
1. Liga Classic - Kumpulan 3 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tuggen | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Baden | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | St. Gallen II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Thalwil | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Taverne | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Kosova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Dietikon | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Collina d'Oro | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Winterthur II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Gossau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Mendrisio | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Eschen / Mauren | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Freienbach | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Widnau | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Locarno | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taverne | 8 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 14 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 8 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 | St. Gallen II | 8 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 4 | Baden | 7 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Thalwil | 8 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Kosova | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Dietikon | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mendrisio | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Freienbach | 7 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Winterthur II | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Eschen / Mauren | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Gossau | 8 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Collina d'Oro | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Locarno | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Widnau | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 5 |
