The model missed the final outcome (PAEEK win 2–1).
The model had projected Akritas at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Akritas PAEEK ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Akritas; match finished PAEEK
Market lesson
The full-time result was PAEEK win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 08:09 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · PAEEK 1.28 — Akritas 1.32
-
Oct 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result PAEEK win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
PAEEK win · PAEEK 2–1 Akritas
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8184a355768dc6cf65d756d9132a147e364d68447ac8d787afc3dc73ffdb5d0e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : PAEEK",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "PAEEK"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Akritas",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1557,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2053,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 4.53
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 4.5
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 4.5
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 4.2
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.53,
"bookmaker_affi": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"display_market": "Akritas Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.87,
"market_odds": 4.43,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.9,
"prob_edge": 14.0,
"value_pct": 63.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "PAEEK or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "PAEEK or Akritas",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Akritas",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "PAEEK or Akritas",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Akritas"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"edge": 63.5,
"implied_prob": 22.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Akritas Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 4.53
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"p_final": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1137,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1396,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10275.64,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akritas).",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0201,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.0,
"text": "+2.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2025,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0201,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.0,
"text": "+2.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Akritas",
"sort_key": 5216.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1729,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0003,
"edge_pp": -0.0,
"market_prob": 0.5465,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1571,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4537
},
"p_final": 0.5463,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0571,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.055,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1729,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.5465,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5463
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0244,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0244,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1793.9,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/4",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/4 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.6%",
"alert_team": "Akritas",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Akritas",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Akritas",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Akritas), but pricing still diverges by 15.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Akritas), but pricing still diverges by 15.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.635,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 65,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Akritas at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Akritas as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Akritas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Akritas \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +64% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609523 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Akritas), but pricing still diverges by 15.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +64% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akritas).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0201,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2025,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2222222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -11.6%",
"steam_team": "Akritas",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akritas).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Akritas), but pricing still diverges by 15.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Akritas), but pricing still diverges by 15.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.635,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 65,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Akritas at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Akritas as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Akritas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Akritas \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +64% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609523 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Akritas), but pricing still diverges by 15.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +64% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akritas).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0201,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2025,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2222222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akritas).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: PAEEK 1.28 xG vs Akritas 1.32 \u2192 Akritas 36.1%",
"Market Steam: Akritas \u2193 -11.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Akritas with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "PAEEK",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Akritas",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.07,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.07,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.15,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.15,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Akritas",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Akritas \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+15.9 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: PAEEK 1.28 xG vs Akritas 1.32 \u2192 Akritas 36.1%",
"Market Steam: Akritas \u2193 -11.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Akritas with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Akritas odds shortened \u2193 -11.6%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "PAEEK",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Akritas",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Akritas (36.1%).",
"Akritas has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -11.6%, 1/4).",
"Akritas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.81,
"entry_odds": 4.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.6
}
],
"books_total": 4,
"breadth_display": "1/4",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Akritas (11.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.47",
"4.20"
],
"display": "4.75 \u2192 4.20 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 10m",
"pick_team": "Akritas",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Akritas",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.6%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Akritas",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/4",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.6%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Akritas",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Akritas",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "akritas",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Akritas",
"away_team_id": 3406,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3406.webp",
"away_team_name": "Akritas",
"away_team_public_id": "05qtk08hZSdKIh",
"away_team_slug": "akritas",
"country_code": "CY",
"country_display_name": "Cyprus",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cy.svg",
"country_id": 42,
"country_name": "Cyprus",
"fixture_id": 1609523,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Cyprus",
"home_team_display_name": "PAEEK",
"home_team_id": 3419,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3419.webp",
"home_team_name": "PAEEK",
"home_team_public_id": "3IAB7QZIXOzN51",
"home_team_slug": "paeek",
"ht.home_team_slug": "paeek",
"league_country": "Cyprus",
"league_country_display": "Cyprus",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 2 Cyprus",
"league_id": 319,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/319.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 2 Cyprus",
"league_public_id": "2Xyd7CYDDkvwzo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 16:00:00",
"public_id": "5fg8YWfuPNScuS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Strovolos",
"venue_name": "Kyrenia - Epistrofi"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1525,
"best_odd": 4.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.2025,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2025,
"draw": 0.2278,
"home": 0.5696
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2267
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1794,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.2278,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2025,
"draw": 0.2278,
"home": 0.5696
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2402
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3955,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0899,
"ev": -0.2324,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2025,
"draw": 0.2278,
"home": 0.5696
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4798
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.53,
"edge": 0.1402,
"ev": 0.635,
"implied_prob": 0.2208,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0528,
"ev": 0.2164,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.2787,
"ev": -0.4487,
"implied_prob": 0.6211,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1571,
"alpha_yes": 0.1729,
"best_no_odd": 2.12,
"best_yes_odd": 1.79,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0015,
"edge_yes": -0.0015,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0354,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.054,
"ev_yes": -0.0244,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.055,
"implied_no": 0.4535,
"implied_yes": 0.5465,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1571,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4537
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1729,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.5465,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5463
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4537,
"p_final_yes": 0.5463,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2136,
"alpha_under": 0.1942,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0907,
"edge_under": 0.0907,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1139,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0445,
"implied_over": 0.5727,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5733,
"implied_under": 0.4273,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4267,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5538,
"p_final_under": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.635,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Akritas), but pricing still diverges by 15.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.635,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 65,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Akritas at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Akritas as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Akritas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Akritas \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +64% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1609523 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Akritas), but pricing still diverges by 15.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +64% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Akritas).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0201,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2025,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2222222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.2025,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Akritas"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1729,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0003,
"market_prob": 0.5465,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1571,
"best_odd": 2.085,
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.054,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4537
},
"p_final": 0.5463,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.055,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1729,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.5465,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5463
}
},
"edge": -0.0015,
"ev": -0.0244,
"implied_prob": 0.5465,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"p_final": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0907,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4273,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1609523,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Akritas",
"home": "PAEEK"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4273,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0201,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.5,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2025,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2222222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+62.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609523,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T08:09:27.337760+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 Cyprus — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Enosis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | ASIL Lysi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Doxa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | APEA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | PAEEK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Polemidion | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Spartakos Kitiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Ermis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Digenis Morphou | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | MEAP Nisou | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Ayia Napa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Halkanoras | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 2 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Doxa | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | ASIL Lysi | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Spartakos Kitiou | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | APEA | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | PAEEK | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Enosis | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 8 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | Ermis | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Ayia Napa | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Akritas | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | MEAP Nisou | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Digenis Morphou | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Halkanoras | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
