The model missed the final outcome (Sheffield United W win 4–1).
The model had projected Durham W at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Durham W Sheffield United W ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United W | 31.9% | 38.4% | -6.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.0% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Durham W | 38.5% | 38.7% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.0%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Sheffield United W win 4–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Durham W by 6.6 percentage points (31.9% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:53 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sheffield United W 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Durham W 38.5%
- xG · Sheffield United W 1.23 — Durham W 1.37
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sheffield United W 2.36 · Draw 3.94 · Durham W 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Sheffield United W 38.4% · Draw 23.0% · Durham W 38.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:53 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Sheffield United W 2.36 · Draw 3.94 · Durham W 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Sheffield United W 38.4% · Draw 23.0% · Durham W 38.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sheffield United W win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
67/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.94
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sheffield United W win · Sheffield United W 4–1 Durham W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0972,
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"text": "-9.7%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0245,
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Durham W",
"sort_key": 1793.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"alert_team": "Durham W",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.6,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.7,
"market_team": "Durham W",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Durham W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
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"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Durham W at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Durham W as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Durham W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0972,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.6,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"steam_team": "Durham W",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Durham W at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Durham W as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Durham W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0972,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sheffield United W 1.23 xG vs Durham W 1.37 \u2192 Durham W 38.5%",
"Market: Durham W ~38.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Durham W \u2193 -20.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Durham W with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.41,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Sheffield United W",
"market_prob": 38.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.6,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.19,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Durham W",
"market_prob": 38.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.24,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.24,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.65,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.65,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.97,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Durham W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.0%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Durham W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Durham W \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sheffield United W 1.23 xG vs Durham W 1.37 \u2192 Durham W 38.5%",
"Market: Durham W ~38.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Durham W \u2193 -20.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Durham W with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.6,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Durham W odds shortened \u2193 -20.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Durham W, with odds shortening by 20.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Buying interest on Durham W \u2014 odds shortened by 20.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Durham W, with odds shortening by 20.7%.",
"Buying interest on Durham W \u2014 odds shortened by 20.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Durham W has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 20.7%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Durham W."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.6,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.41,
"edge_pp": -6.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sheffield United W",
"market_prob_pct": 38.35,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.6,
"edge_pp": 6.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.19,
"edge_pp": -0.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Durham W",
"market_prob_pct": 38.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Durham W \u2014 odds shortened by 20.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Durham W (38.7%).",
"However, Durham W has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -20.7%, 6/8).",
"Durham W \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.38,
"closing_odds": 3.94,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.38,
"entry_odds": 3.94,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -46.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -46.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -45.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -45.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -40.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -40.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/8 books synchronized on Durham W (20.7% steam, score 94) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.90",
"2.60",
"2.30"
],
"display": "4.39 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 45h 12m",
"pick_team": "Durham W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.39"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
2.34,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Durham W \u2193 -20.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Durham W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Durham W \u2193 -20.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Durham W",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Durham W",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_team_name": "Durham W",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "durham-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Durham W",
"away_team_id": 15403,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15403.webp",
"away_team_name": "Durham W",
"away_team_public_id": "42bzqku5Gvqadq",
"away_team_slug": "durham-w",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1609392,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Sheffield United W",
"home_team_id": 15407,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15407.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sheffield United W",
"home_team_public_id": "3uBt5lTKzwJ99J",
"home_team_slug": "sheffield-united-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sheffield-united-w",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Kejuaraan Wanita",
"league_id": 699,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/699.webp",
"league_name": "Kejuaraan Wanita",
"league_public_id": "2oGS35nfcWcm34",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3FEqBOQu1R9BGX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sheffield",
"venue_name": "Bramall Lane"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4485,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3868,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.3835
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3858
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2702,
"best_odd": 3.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0245,
"implied_prob": 0.2297,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3868,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.3835
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2476
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4068,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1564,
"implied_prob": 0.3835,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3868,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.3835
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3575
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": -0.0427,
"ev": -0.1,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.94,
"edge": 0.0421,
"ev": 0.1657,
"implied_prob": 0.2538,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.1042,
"ev": -0.246,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1587,
"alpha_yes": 0.2183,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0765,
"edge_yes": -0.0765,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0607,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1159,
"implied_no": 0.3795,
"implied_yes": 0.6205,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3898
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.6227,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6056
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3898,
"p_final_yes": 0.6056,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2043,
"alpha_under": 0.1486,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.28,
"edge_over": -0.1124,
"edge_under": 0.1124,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1208,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.045,
"implied_over": 0.5944,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5984,
"implied_under": 0.4056,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4016,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5746
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1486,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4189
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5746,
"p_final_under": 0.4189,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Durham W at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Durham W as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Durham W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Durham W).",
"Decision strength: 7.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0972,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Durham W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0125,
"market_prob": 0.3773,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3898
},
"p_final": 0.3898,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0607,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.6227,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6056
}
},
"edge": 0.0765,
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1486,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.4016,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.5984,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5746
},
"p_final": 0.4189,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.045,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1486,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4189
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1124,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4056,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1609392,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3795,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Durham W",
"home": "Sheffield United W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4056,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0972,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609392,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:53:56.146951+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Sheffield United W & Durham W!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Kejuaraan Wanita — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United Wanita | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanita | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Leicester City Wanita | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Southampton W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest Wanita | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Ipswich Town W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Bristol City Wanita | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Watford Wanita | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Burnley W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Durham W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Sheffield United W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United Wanita | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanita | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bristol City Wanita | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Leicester City Wanita | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest Wanita | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 | Durham W | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
| 8 | Southampton W | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Watford Wanita | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Sheffield United W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Burnley W | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
