AI correctly predicted the Catania win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Catania Catania ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casertana | 34.2% | 31.5% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.0% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Catania | 36.1% | 38.5% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Catania win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Catania win 1–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Casertana 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Catania 36.1%
- xG · Casertana 1.28 — Catania 1.32
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Casertana 2.94 · Draw 3.09 · Catania 2.41
- Implied 1X2 · Casertana 31.5% · Draw 30.0% · Catania 38.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Casertana 2.94 · Draw 3.09 · Catania 2.41
- Implied 1X2 · Casertana 31.5% · Draw 30.0% · Catania 38.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Catania win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
86/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.94
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Catania win · Casertana 1–2 Catania
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
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"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0978,
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -9.8,
"text": "-9.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3847,
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"max_ev": -0.0386,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Catania",
"sort_key": 1790.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"alert_team": "Casertana",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.71,
"hero_label": "Casertana",
"market_prob_pct": 38.5,
"market_team": "Catania",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Catania",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Catania)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Catania)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Catania at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Catania as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Catania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Catania).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0978,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3847,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1302,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.71,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.71,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"steam_team": "Casertana",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Catania)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Catania)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Catania at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Catania as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Catania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Catania).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0978,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3847,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1302,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Casertana 1.28 xG vs Catania 1.32 \u2192 Catania 36.1%",
"Market: Catania ~38.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Casertana odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Catania with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.71,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Casertana",
"market_prob": 31.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.35,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.36,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Catania",
"market_prob": 38.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.57,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.57,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Casertana",
"market_prob_pct": 31.53,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Casertana"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.71,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Catania",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Catania \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Casertana 1.28 xG vs Catania 1.32 \u2192 Catania 36.1%",
"Market: Catania ~38.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Casertana odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Catania with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.71,
"hero_label": "Casertana",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Casertana odds lengthened \u2191 +5.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Casertana.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Casertana."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Casertana (\u2191 +5.9%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.71,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Casertana",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.71,
"edge_pp": 2.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Casertana",
"market_prob_pct": 31.53,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.35,
"edge_pp": -0.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.36,
"edge_pp": -2.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Catania",
"market_prob_pct": 38.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Casertana.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Catania (38.5%).",
"Casertana odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.9%, 5/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Catania \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.01,
"closing_odds": 2.94,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.01,
"entry_odds": 2.94,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Casertana (5.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.94",
"2.75",
"2.55"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.55 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Casertana",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
2.94,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,11.1",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.94"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/9 sportsbooks on Casertana",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Casertana",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Casertana",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Casertana",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Casertana",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "catania",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Catania",
"away_team_id": 1580,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1580.webp",
"away_team_name": "Catania",
"away_team_public_id": "5IJKWOOK97h1Z6",
"away_team_slug": "catania",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1609054,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Casertana",
"home_team_id": 885,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/885.webp",
"home_team_name": "Casertana",
"home_team_public_id": "2d3CCl0AQH0yaa",
"home_team_slug": "casertana",
"ht.home_team_slug": "casertana",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone C",
"league_id": 943,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/943.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone C",
"league_public_id": "3NTvM54zqeDQSO",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 10:30:00",
"public_id": "4lhbZSyiqlHWMk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Caserta",
"venue_name": "Stadio Alberto Pinto"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.434,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.3847,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3847,
"draw": 0.3,
"home": 0.3153
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3744
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2985,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.3,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3847,
"draw": 0.3,
"home": 0.3153
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.299
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4317,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0386,
"implied_prob": 0.3153,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3847,
"draw": 0.3,
"home": 0.3153
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.327
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": -0.054,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": 0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2142,
"alpha_yes": 0.2356,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0357,
"edge_yes": 0.0357,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0924,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0658,
"implied_no": 0.4907,
"implied_yes": 0.5093,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4802
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.5129,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5205
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4802,
"p_final_yes": 0.5205,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2134,
"alpha_under": 0.2348,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.06,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0362,
"edge_under": -0.0362,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0626,
"ev_under": -0.109,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0911,
"implied_over": 0.4458,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4477,
"implied_under": 0.5542,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5523,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.455
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5442
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.455,
"p_final_under": 0.5442,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.041,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Catania)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.041,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.041,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Catania at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Catania as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Catania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Catania).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0978,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3847,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1302,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.041,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.0978,
"implied_prob": 0.3847,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Catania"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.795,
"edge": 0.0076,
"market_prob": 0.5129,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.0924,
"implied_prob": 0.4871,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4802
},
"p_final": 0.5205,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0658,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2356,
"best_odd": 1.795,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.5129,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5205
}
},
"edge": 0.0357,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0073,
"market_prob": 0.4477,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2134,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.455
},
"p_final": 0.455,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0626,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2348,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5442
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4458,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1609054,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.041,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Catania",
"home": "Casertana"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0978,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3847,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41493775933609955,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1302,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1609054,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T10:29:27.766940+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie C - Girone C — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bari | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Sorrento | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Potenza | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | AZ Picerno | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Casertana | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Inter U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Casarano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Salernitana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | SS Monopoli | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Cavese | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Catania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Barletta | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 14 | Scafatese | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Team Altamura | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Savoia | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 17 | Foggia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Picerno | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 2 | Potenza | 6 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Cavese | 7 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Audace Cerignola | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Casertana | 6 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Inter U23 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Giugliano | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Bari | 7 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 | Sorrento | 6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 10 | Catania | 6 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 |
| 11 | Salernitana | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 | Barletta | 6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
| 13 | Casarano | 6 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Savoia | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Scafatese | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Crotone | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 | SS Monopoli | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 | Cosenza | 7 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 2 |
| 19 | Foggia | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 20 | Team Altamura | 6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 7 |
