The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Città di Campobasso at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Città di Campobasso Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Città di Campobasso; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Città di Campobasso 1.42 — Torres 1.18
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Città di Campobasso 1–1 Torres
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2969,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.37,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0294,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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],
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
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"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": 0.0,
"value_pct": 0.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.42,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso or Draw",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso or Torres",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Torres",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso or Torres",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.7,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 0.0,
"implied_prob": 41.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso Win",
"model_prob": 41.0,
"odds": 2.44
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Torres",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.36,
"draw": 28.63,
"home": 38.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 12:29:24",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 12:02:47",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"gap_pp": 2.94,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.63,
"gap_pp": 0.77,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.36,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.62,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
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{
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},
"p_final": 0.4889,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0515,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0515,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"alpha": 0.2163,
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"edge": 0.0056,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
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"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0699,
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0061,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0098,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.0,
"text": "+1.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0965,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0098,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 5207.84,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0416,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0416,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"sort_key": 1789.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"alert_team": "Torres",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.67,
"hero_label": "Torres",
"market_prob_pct": 38.0,
"market_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0515,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0416,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.67,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"steam_team": "Torres",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0515,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0416,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso 1.42 xG vs Torres 1.18 \u2192 Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso 40.9%",
"Market: Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso ~38.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Torres \u2193 -14.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso, but sharp money moved toward Torres.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"market_prob": 38.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.67,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Torres",
"market_prob": 33.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.86,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.06,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.86,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.94,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.54,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.54,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Torres",
"market_prob_pct": 33.36,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Torres"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 3.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso 1.42 xG vs Torres 1.18 \u2192 Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso 40.9%",
"Market: Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso ~38.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Torres \u2193 -14.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso, but sharp money moved toward Torres.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.67,
"hero_label": "Torres",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Torres odds shortened \u2193 -14.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Torres.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Torres."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Torres (\u2193 -14.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Torres."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Torres",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.9,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"market_prob_pct": 38.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.77,
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.63,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.67,
"edge_pp": -3.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Torres",
"market_prob_pct": 33.36,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Torres.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso (38.0%).",
"However, Torres has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.1%, 8/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso, Market \u2192 Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso, Recent sharp money \u2192 Torres.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.97,
"closing_odds": 2.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.97,
"entry_odds": 2.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Torres (14.1%, 8/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"2.98",
"2.75"
],
"display": "3.35 \u2192 2.63 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Torres",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.35"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.63"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
2.78,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Torres \u2193 -14.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Torres",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Torres \u2193 -14.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved toward Torres while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Torres",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Torres",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_team_name": "Torres",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "torres",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Torres",
"away_team_id": 9534,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9534.webp",
"away_team_name": "Torres",
"away_team_public_id": "5xXw0P8AN5AuI0",
"away_team_slug": "torres",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1608682,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"home_team_id": 9510,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9510.webp",
"home_team_name": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"home_team_public_id": "25BoTNhoCeVABS",
"home_team_slug": "citta-di-campobasso",
"ht.home_team_slug": "citta-di-campobasso",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone B",
"league_id": 942,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/942.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone B",
"league_public_id": "60hh7BGqSoxefa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 12:30:00",
"public_id": "0YtZpdyu79dCgK",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Campobasso",
"venue_name": "Stadio Nuovo Romagnoli"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.425,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1163,
"implied_prob": 0.3336,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3336,
"draw": 0.2863,
"home": 0.3801
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3179
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2966,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.2863,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3336,
"draw": 0.2863,
"home": 0.3801
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2885
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4301,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0416,
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3336,
"draw": 0.2863,
"home": 0.3801
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.3928
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": -0.0632,
"ev": -0.1756,
"implied_prob": 0.3597,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.0477,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.0007,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2163,
"alpha_yes": 0.2379,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0254,
"edge_yes": -0.0254,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0098,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0699,
"ev_yes": -0.0965,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0917,
"implied_no": 0.4336,
"implied_yes": 0.5664,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4387
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2379,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5607
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4387,
"p_final_yes": 0.5607,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2338,
"alpha_under": 0.2125,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.03,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.92,
"edge_over": -0.0386,
"edge_under": 0.0386,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0917,
"ev_under": 0.0515,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0613,
"implied_over": 0.5206,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5189,
"implied_under": 0.4794,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4811,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2338,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.5189,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5103
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2125,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0613,
"implied_prob": 0.4811,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4889
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5103,
"p_final_under": 0.4889,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0515,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0515,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0515,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0515,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Torres, but the model still strongly favours Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0416,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0416,
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0056,
"market_prob": 0.4332,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
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"p_final": 0.4387
},
"p_final": 0.4387,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0699,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0061,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0098,
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"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0078,
"market_prob": 0.4811,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4889,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0613,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0078,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0386,
"ev": 0.0515,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1608682,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0515,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Torres",
"home": "Citt\u00e0 di Campobasso"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.4794,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0416,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3801,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1608682,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T12:29:26.905233+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Città di Campobasso & Torres!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie C - Girone B — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Ravenna | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Reggiana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Livorno | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Perugia | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Città di Campobasso | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Torres | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Pescara | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Forli | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 13 | Atalanta II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Vado | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | Pianese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Pineto | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 17 | Gubbio | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Latina | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Ravenna | 8 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Forli | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 |
| 5 | Reggiana | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Sambenedettese | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Livorno | 8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Pescara | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Gubbio | 9 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 |
| 12 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Torres | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Perugia | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 13 |
| 16 | Atalanta II | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 17 | Vado | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Latina | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 19 | Pianese | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 | Pineto | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
