The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Ostia Mare at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Ostia Mare Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostia Mare | 39.0% | 41.5% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.4% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Forli | 31.5% | 31.2% | +0.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Ostia Mare; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ostia Mare 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Forli 31.5%
- xG · Ostia Mare 1.38 — Forli 1.22
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ostia Mare 2.24 · Draw 3.39 · Forli 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Ostia Mare 41.5% · Draw 27.4% · Forli 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ostia Mare 2.24 · Draw 3.39 · Forli 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Ostia Mare 41.5% · Draw 27.4% · Forli 31.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
87/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.24
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Ostia Mare 1–1 Forli
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0956,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.6,
"text": "-9.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0503,
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"raw_pct": -5.0,
"text": "-5.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Ostia Mare",
"sort_key": 1787.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"alert_team": "Ostia Mare",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.48,
"hero_label": "Ostia Mare",
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"market_team": "Ostia Mare",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Ostia Mare",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0515,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ostia Mare at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ostia Mare as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ostia Mare",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.48,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.48,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"steam_team": "Ostia Mare",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0515,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ostia Mare at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ostia Mare as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ostia Mare",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ostia Mare 1.38 xG vs Forli 1.22 \u2192 Ostia Mare 39.0%",
"Market: Ostia Mare ~41.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Ostia Mare \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ostia Mare with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.48,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Ostia Mare",
"market_prob": 41.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.15,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.32,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Forli",
"market_prob": 31.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.96,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.96,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.25,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.25,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ostia Mare",
"market_prob_pct": 41.45,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Ostia Mare"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.48,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ostia Mare",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Ostia Mare \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ostia Mare 1.38 xG vs Forli 1.22 \u2192 Ostia Mare 39.0%",
"Market: Ostia Mare ~41.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Ostia Mare \u2193 -8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ostia Mare with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.48,
"hero_label": "Ostia Mare",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Ostia Mare odds shortened \u2193 -8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ostia Mare.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ostia Mare."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Ostia Mare (\u2193 -8.3%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.48,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Ostia Mare",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.48,
"edge_pp": -2.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ostia Mare",
"market_prob_pct": 41.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.15,
"edge_pp": 2.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.32,
"edge_pp": 0.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Forli",
"market_prob_pct": 31.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ostia Mare.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ostia Mare (41.5%).",
"However, Ostia Mare has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -8.3%, 5/9).",
"Ostia Mare \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.64,
"closing_odds": 2.24,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.64,
"entry_odds": 2.24,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Ostia Mare (8.3%, 5/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.40",
"2.30",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.47 \u2192 2.11 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 99h 30m",
"pick_team": "Ostia Mare",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.11"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
2.24,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 5/9 sportsbooks on Ostia Mare",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Ostia Mare",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ostia Mare",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Ostia Mare",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Ostia Mare",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "forli",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Forli",
"away_team_id": 1688,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1688.webp",
"away_team_name": "Forli",
"away_team_public_id": "2KBoFBnTNtxDhG",
"away_team_slug": "forli",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1608673,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Ostia Mare",
"home_team_id": 9530,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9530.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ostia Mare",
"home_team_public_id": "2xoIeJIJUWuiMY",
"home_team_slug": "ostia-mare",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ostia-mare",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Serie C - Girone B",
"league_id": 942,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/942.webp",
"league_name": "Serie C - Girone B",
"league_public_id": "60hh7BGqSoxefa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 12:30:00",
"public_id": "42dkQzXAYPvfVZ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Stadio Pasquale Giannattasio"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4477,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.067,
"implied_prob": 0.3116,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3116,
"draw": 0.2739,
"home": 0.4145
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3131
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2903,
"best_odd": 3.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0503,
"implied_prob": 0.2739,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3116,
"draw": 0.2739,
"home": 0.4145
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2801
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4332,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.4145,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3116,
"draw": 0.2739,
"home": 0.4145
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4038
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.39,
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": 0.0014,
"implied_prob": 0.295,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0568,
"ev": -0.1271,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2138,
"alpha_yes": 0.2352,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0325,
"edge_yes": -0.0325,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0032,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.067,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0948,
"implied_no": 0.4235,
"implied_yes": 0.5765,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2138,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.067,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.43
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2352,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.0948,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5693
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.43,
"p_final_yes": 0.5693,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2285,
"alpha_under": 0.2078,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.03,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.975,
"edge_over": -0.0496,
"edge_under": 0.0496,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.098,
"ev_under": 0.0515,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0568,
"implied_over": 0.5316,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5331,
"implied_under": 0.4684,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4669,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5331,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5214
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.4669,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4775
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5214,
"p_final_under": 0.4775,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0515,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0515,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0515,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0515,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ostia Mare at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ostia Mare as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ostia Mare",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ostia Mare).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
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"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.4145,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ostia Mare"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0071,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.067,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
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"p_final": 0.43
},
"p_final": 0.43,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.067,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0078,
"ev": -0.0948,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
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"p_final": 0.5693
}
},
"edge": 0.0325,
"ev": 0.0032,
"implied_prob": 0.4235,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4669,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.5331,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5214
},
"p_final": 0.4775,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0568,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2078,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.4669,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4775
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0496,
"ev": 0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.4684,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1608673,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0515,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Forli",
"home": "Ostia Mare"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.018674,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.4684,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4464285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1271,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1608673,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:30:21.326032+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Ostia Mare & Forli!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie C - Girone B — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Grosseto | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Ravenna | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 4 | Reggiana | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Livorno | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Torres | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Forli | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Atalanta II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Pescara | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gubbio | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Pineto | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Perugia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Ostia Mare | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Latina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Vado | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 | Pianese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 7 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | Spezia | 6 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Reggiana | 6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Forli | 6 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Città di Campobasso | 7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 6 | Ravenna | 6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 14 |
| 7 | Livorno | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Gubbio | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Torres | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Pescara | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Atalanta II | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Pineto | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Vis Pesaro | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
| 17 | Latina | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 18 | Vado | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Perugia | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 20 | Pianese | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
