The model missed the final outcome (Cittadella win 0–1).
The model had projected Renate at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Renate Cittadella ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renate | 40.9% | 32.7% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.6% | +1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Cittadella | 29.7% | 39.7% | -10.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Cittadella's win probability at 39.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Cittadella win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Cittadella. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Renate; match finished Cittadella
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Renate by 10.0 percentage points (50.9% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Renate 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Cittadella 29.6%
- xG · Renate 1.42 — Cittadella 1.18
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Renate 2.84 · Draw 3.36 · Cittadella 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Renate 32.7% · Draw 27.6% · Cittadella 39.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Renate 2.84 · Draw 3.36 · Cittadella 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Renate 32.7% · Draw 27.6% · Cittadella 39.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cittadella win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Renate & Cittadella!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie C - Girone A — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Trento | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Alcione | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Juventus U23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Athletic Carpi | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Novara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Treviso | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pro Vercelli | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Desenzano Calvina | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Folgore Caratese | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Lecco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Pergolettese | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Renate | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ospitaletto | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Cittadella | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Athletic Carpi | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Alcione | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 | Juventus U23 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Novara | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Trento | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Treviso | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Folgore Caratese | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pro Vercelli | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Lumezzane | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Giana Erminio | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 | Renate | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Desenzano Calvina | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Lecco | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Pergolettese | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
