The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected US Monastirienne at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 US Monastirienne Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Monastirienne | 41.9% | 54.5% | -12.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.3% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| US Ben Guerdane | 28.8% | 17.2% | +11.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates US Monastirienne's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about US Monastirienne than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned US Monastirienne; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on US Monastirienne by 12.6 percentage points (54.5% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · US Monastirienne 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · US Ben Guerdane 28.8%
- xG · US Monastirienne 1.44 — US Ben Guerdane 1.16
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · US Monastirienne 1.68 · Draw 3.23 · US Ben Guerdane 5.32
- Implied 1X2 · US Monastirienne 54.5% · Draw 28.3% · US Ben Guerdane 17.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · US Monastirienne 1.68 · Draw 3.23 · US Ben Guerdane 5.32
- Implied 1X2 · US Monastirienne 54.5% · Draw 28.3% · US Ben Guerdane 17.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
37/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.68
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · US Monastirienne 3–3 US Ben Guerdane
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1881,
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"text": "-18.8%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": 0.0172,
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"text": "+1.7%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.7%",
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"tier": "lean"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"alert_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.59,
"hero_label": "US Monastirienne",
"market_prob_pct": 54.5,
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"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "US Monastirienne",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
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},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (US Monastirienne)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5665,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates US Monastirienne at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies US Monastirienne as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "US Monastirienne",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +56.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +56.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +56.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+56.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (US Monastirienne).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "1/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.59,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.59,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.16,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 1.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"steam_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (US Monastirienne)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (US Monastirienne)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5665,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates US Monastirienne at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies US Monastirienne as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "US Monastirienne",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +56.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +56.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +56.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+56.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (US Monastirienne).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: US Monastirienne 1.44 xG vs US Ben Guerdane 1.16 \u2192 US Monastirienne 41.9%",
"Market: US Monastirienne ~54.5% implied",
"Market Drift: US Ben Guerdane odds \u2191 +21.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean US Monastirienne with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "US Monastirienne",
"market_prob": 54.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.98,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.61,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "US Ben Guerdane",
"market_prob": 17.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.45,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.45,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.66,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.66,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "US Monastirienne",
"market_prob_pct": 54.47,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "US Ben Guerdane"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates US Monastirienne\u0027s win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.59,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "US Monastirienne",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.6,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "US Monastirienne \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: US Monastirienne 1.44 xG vs US Ben Guerdane 1.16 \u2192 US Monastirienne 41.9%",
"Market: US Monastirienne ~54.5% implied",
"Market Drift: US Ben Guerdane odds \u2191 +21.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean US Monastirienne with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.59,
"hero_label": "US Monastirienne",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "US Ben Guerdane odds lengthened \u2191 +21.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, US Ben Guerdane has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about US Monastirienne than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from US Ben Guerdane \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about US Monastirienne than the current fair estimate.",
"However, US Ben Guerdane has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from US Ben Guerdane \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors US Monastirienne more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, US Ben Guerdane has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.59,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "US Monastirienne",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices US Monastirienne higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.59,
"edge_pp": -12.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "US Monastirienne",
"market_prob_pct": 54.47,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.98,
"edge_pp": 0.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.61,
"edge_pp": 11.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "US Ben Guerdane",
"market_prob_pct": 17.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from US Ben Guerdane \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers US Monastirienne (54.5%).",
"However, US Ben Guerdane has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.1%, 1/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"US Monastirienne \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.52,
"closing_odds": 1.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.52,
"entry_odds": 1.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 17m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on US Ben Guerdane (21.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.75",
"5.25",
"4.75"
],
"display": "5.75 \u2192 4.75 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 17m",
"pick_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
5.32,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,7.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "US Ben Guerdane",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "us-ben-guerdane",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "US Ben Guerdane",
"away_team_id": 986,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/986.webp",
"away_team_name": "US Ben Guerdane",
"away_team_public_id": "13Yc4i84RU7SMw",
"away_team_slug": "us-ben-guerdane",
"country_code": "TN",
"country_display_name": "Tunisia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tn.svg",
"country_id": 156,
"country_name": "Tunisia",
"fixture_id": 1607441,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Tunisia",
"home_team_display_name": "US Monastirienne",
"home_team_id": 992,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/992.webp",
"home_team_name": "US Monastirienne",
"home_team_public_id": "1hZSh4tBzm5F1N",
"home_team_slug": "us-monastirienne",
"ht.home_team_slug": "us-monastirienne",
"league_country": "Tunisia",
"league_country_display": "Tunisia",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1 Tunisia",
"league_id": 202,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/202.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 Tunisia",
"league_public_id": "28UzOzBuurzZlR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 15:00:00",
"public_id": "0boexQqOOP8AOF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Monastir",
"venue_name": "Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1651,
"best_odd": 5.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": 0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.172,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.172,
"draw": 0.2833,
"home": 0.5447
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.1912
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2955,
"best_odd": 3.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.172,
"draw": 0.2833,
"home": 0.5447
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2863
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4864,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0614,
"ev": -0.1881,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.172,
"draw": 0.2833,
"home": 0.5447
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.4833
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.32,
"edge": 0.1003,
"ev": 0.5334,
"implied_prob": 0.188,
"model_prob": 0.2882
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.23,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.0526,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.1768,
"ev": -0.297,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.4185
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1878,
"alpha_yes": 0.1366,
"best_no_odd": 1.55,
"best_yes_odd": 2.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1566,
"edge_yes": 0.1566,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.287,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1231,
"ev_yes": 0.3176,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0249,
"implied_no": 0.6166,
"implied_yes": 0.3834,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1878,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0302,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6207,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5905
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1366,
"best_odd": 2.43,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.0249,
"implied_prob": 0.3793,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4013
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5905,
"p_final_yes": 0.4013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1438,
"alpha_under": 0.1977,
"best_over_odd": 3.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.605,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.39,
"edge_over": 0.1445,
"edge_under": -0.1445,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5665,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0434,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1305,
"implied_over": 0.3375,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3479,
"implied_under": 0.6625,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6521,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"best_odd": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.3479,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3672
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1305,
"implied_prob": 0.6521,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6256
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3672,
"p_final_under": 0.6256,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5665,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5665,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (US Monastirienne)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5665,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5665,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates US Monastirienne at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies US Monastirienne as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "US Monastirienne",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +56.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +56.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +56.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+56.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (US Monastirienne).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0614,
"ev": -0.1881,
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "US Monastirienne"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.43,
"edge": 0.022,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0302,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6207,
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"p_final": 0.5905
},
"p_final": 0.4013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0249,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.0249,
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},
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"ev": 0.3176,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0193,
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0193,
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},
"p_final": 0.3672,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"under": {
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"edge": -0.0265,
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},
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1607441,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5665,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2882,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4185
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3176,
"implied_prob": 0.3834,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "US Ben Guerdane",
"home": "US Monastirienne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.191137,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5665,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1881,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5447,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5952380952380952,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2969,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1607441,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T15:02:47.893292+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ligue 1 Tunisia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Africain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | CS Sfaxien | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | US Monastirienne | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | ES Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | ES Metlaoui | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | CS Hammam-Lif | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 | US Monastirienne | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | ES Tunis | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 4 | CS Sfaxien | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Stade Tunisien | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | ES Sahel | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 4 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 8 |
| 9 | Club Africain | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | CA Bizertin | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Zarzis | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Olympique Béja | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | AS Marsa | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | CS Hammam-Lif | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
