The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected CS Sfaxien at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 CS Sfaxien Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Ben Guerdane | 27.5% | 27.8% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.1% | 36.0% | -6.9 pp | Market Higher |
| CS Sfaxien | 43.4% | 36.2% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates CS Sfaxien's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.2%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CS Sfaxien.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned CS Sfaxien; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on CS Sfaxien by 7.2 percentage points (36.2% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · US Ben Guerdane 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · CS Sfaxien 43.3%
- xG · US Ben Guerdane 1.13 — CS Sfaxien 1.47
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · US Ben Guerdane 3.29 · Draw 2.54 · CS Sfaxien 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · US Ben Guerdane 27.8% · Draw 36.0% · CS Sfaxien 36.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · US Ben Guerdane 3.29 · Draw 2.54 · CS Sfaxien 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · US Ben Guerdane 27.8% · Draw 36.0% · CS Sfaxien 36.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
64/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.53
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · US Ben Guerdane 1–1 CS Sfaxien
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0122,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3617,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0122,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "CS Sfaxien",
"sort_key": 1796.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"alert_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.18,
"hero_label": "CS Sfaxien",
"market_prob_pct": 36.2,
"market_team": "CS Sfaxien",
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"model_team": "CS Sfaxien",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 73,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4749,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CS Sfaxien at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CS Sfaxien as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CS Sfaxien",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3617,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.18,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.18,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.47,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.13,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.47,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.13 \u00b7 Away xG 1.47 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +9%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"steam_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4749,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CS Sfaxien at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CS Sfaxien as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CS Sfaxien",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3617,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: US Ben Guerdane 1.13 xG vs CS Sfaxien 1.47 \u2192 CS Sfaxien 43.4%",
"Market: CS Sfaxien ~36.2% implied",
"Market Steam: US Ben Guerdane \u2193 -13.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CS Sfaxien, but sharp money moved toward US Ben Guerdane.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.31,
"fair_prob": 27.5,
"label": "US Ben Guerdane",
"market_prob": 27.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob": 29.15,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 36.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.18,
"fair_prob": 43.35,
"label": "CS Sfaxien",
"market_prob": 36.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.74,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.74,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.22,
"fair_prob": 53.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.22,
"fair_prob": 46.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.35,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "CS Sfaxien",
"market_prob_pct": 36.17,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "US Ben Guerdane"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates CS Sfaxien\u0027s win probability at 43.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 36.2%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "CS Sfaxien",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.2,
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: US Ben Guerdane 1.13 xG vs CS Sfaxien 1.47 \u2192 CS Sfaxien 43.4%",
"Market: CS Sfaxien ~36.2% implied",
"Market Steam: US Ben Guerdane \u2193 -13.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CS Sfaxien, but sharp money moved toward US Ben Guerdane.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.18,
"hero_label": "CS Sfaxien",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "US Ben Guerdane odds shortened \u2193 -13.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on US Ben Guerdane, with odds shortening by 13.9%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CS Sfaxien.",
"note": "Buying interest on US Ben Guerdane \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CS Sfaxien.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on US Ben Guerdane, with odds shortening by 13.9%.",
"Buying interest on US Ben Guerdane \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on CS Sfaxien.",
"At the same time, US Ben Guerdane has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 13.9%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on US Ben Guerdane."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.2 pp (at 43.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.2,
"max_prob_pct": 43.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "CS Sfaxien",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.2,
"lead": "The model rates CS Sfaxien considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.31,
"edge_pp": -0.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "US Ben Guerdane",
"market_prob_pct": 27.81,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.87,
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 36.02,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.18,
"edge_pp": 7.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.35,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "CS Sfaxien",
"market_prob_pct": 36.17,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on US Ben Guerdane \u2014 odds shortened by 13.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers CS Sfaxien (36.2%).",
"However, US Ben Guerdane has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -13.9%, 7/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 CS Sfaxien, Market \u2192 CS Sfaxien, Recent sharp money \u2192 US Ben Guerdane.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.53,
"closing_odds": 2.53,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.53,
"entry_odds": 2.53,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 18h 41m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on US Ben Guerdane (13.9%, 7/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.35",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.90 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 18h 41m",
"pick_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.29,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,11.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: US Ben Guerdane \u2193 -13.9% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: US Ben Guerdane \u2193 -13.9% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward US Ben Guerdane while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 73,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "US Ben Guerdane",
"steam_score": 73,
"steam_team_name": "US Ben Guerdane",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cs-sfaxien",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "CS Sfaxien",
"away_team_id": 983,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/983.webp",
"away_team_name": "CS Sfaxien",
"away_team_public_id": "1vgrr2pCXpLmK1",
"away_team_slug": "cs-sfaxien",
"country_code": "TN",
"country_display_name": "Tunisia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tn.svg",
"country_id": 156,
"country_name": "Tunisia",
"fixture_id": 1607427,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Tunisia",
"home_team_display_name": "US Ben Guerdane",
"home_team_id": 986,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/986.webp",
"home_team_name": "US Ben Guerdane",
"home_team_public_id": "13Yc4i84RU7SMw",
"home_team_slug": "us-ben-guerdane",
"ht.home_team_slug": "us-ben-guerdane",
"league_country": "Tunisia",
"league_country_display": "Tunisia",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1 Tunisia",
"league_id": 202,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/202.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 Tunisia",
"league_public_id": "28UzOzBuurzZlR",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 15:00:00",
"public_id": "5YqTMbc4FwpBjV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ben Guerdane",
"venue_name": "7 March Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4017,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.3617,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3617,
"draw": 0.3602,
"home": 0.2781
},
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"p_final": 0.3904
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4038,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1552,
"implied_prob": 0.3602,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3617,
"draw": 0.3602,
"home": 0.2781
},
"model_prob": 0.2918,
"p_final": 0.3326
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2986,
"best_odd": 3.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0881,
"implied_prob": 0.2781,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3617,
"draw": 0.3602,
"home": 0.2781
},
"model_prob": 0.275,
"p_final": 0.2772
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.038,
"ev": 0.0961,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.4333
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.1019,
"ev": -0.2589,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.2918
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.29,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.304,
"model_prob": 0.275
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1976,
"alpha_yes": 0.1437,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1322,
"edge_yes": 0.1322,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2592,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1267,
"ev_yes": 0.2351,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0422,
"implied_no": 0.5952,
"implied_yes": 0.4048,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.463,
"p_final": 0.5708
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1437,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"p_final": 0.4219
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5708,
"p_final_yes": 0.4219,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1348,
"alpha_under": 0.1853,
"best_over_odd": 3.06,
"best_under_odd": 1.39,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.92,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.34,
"edge_over": 0.1674,
"edge_under": -0.1674,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4749,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0156,
"ev_under": -0.28,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1231,
"implied_over": 0.3146,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3146,
"implied_under": 0.6854,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6854,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1348,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0156,
"implied_prob": 0.3146,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3371
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1853,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.031,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6854,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6544
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3371,
"p_final_under": 0.6544,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4749,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4749,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4749,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CS Sfaxien at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CS Sfaxien as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CS Sfaxien",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward US Ben Guerdane, but the model still strongly favours CS Sfaxien.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3617,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.34
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.537,
"draw_prob": 0.2918,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4333,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.34
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.3617,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "CS Sfaxien"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1437,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0193,
"market_prob": 0.4026,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.537,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1267,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.463,
"p_final": 0.5708
},
"p_final": 0.4219,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0422,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1437,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"p_final": 0.4219
}
},
"edge": 0.1322,
"ev": 0.2351,
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1348,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0226,
"market_prob": 0.3146,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1348,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0156,
"implied_prob": 0.3146,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3371
},
"p_final": 0.3371,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0156,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1853,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.031,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6854,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6544
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1674,
"ev": 0.4749,
"implied_prob": 0.3146,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1607427,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4749,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4333,
"draw": 0.2918,
"home": 0.275
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2351,
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.537,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2351,
"implied_prob": 0.4048,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.537,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CS Sfaxien",
"home": "US Ben Guerdane"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.160231,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4749,
"implied_prob": 0.3146,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0122,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3617,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4333,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3952569169960475,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1607427,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T14:59:25.372732+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ligue 1 Tunisia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Africain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | CS Sfaxien | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | US Monastirienne | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | ES Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | ES Metlaoui | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | CS Hammam-Lif | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 | US Monastirienne | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | ES Tunis | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 4 | CS Sfaxien | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 5 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Stade Tunisien | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | ES Sahel | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 4 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 8 |
| 9 | Club Africain | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | CA Bizertin | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Zarzis | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Olympique Béja | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | AS Marsa | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | CS Hammam-Lif | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
