AI correctly predicted the Vasco da Gama win.
The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Asunción | 25.0% | 35.6% | -10.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.4% | 31.2% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Vasco da Gama | 46.6% | 33.2% | +13.4 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Vasco da Gama's win probability at 46.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.2%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Vasco da Gama win 1–4).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vasco da Gama.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.65) — 5 goals materialised
- Vasco da Gama attacking xG significantly stronger (1.56 vs 1.09)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vasco da Gama more conservatively (33.2% vs model 46.6%, 13.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vasco da Gama win 1–4).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Olimpia Asunción 25.0% · Draw 28.4% · Vasco da Gama 46.7%
- xG · Olimpia Asunción 1.09 — Vasco da Gama 1.56
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Olimpia Asunción 2.68 · Draw 3.05 · Vasco da Gama 2.87
- Implied 1X2 · Olimpia Asunción 35.6% · Draw 31.2% · Vasco da Gama 33.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Olimpia Asunción 2.68 · Draw 3.05 · Vasco da Gama 2.87
- Implied 1X2 · Olimpia Asunción 35.6% · Draw 31.2% · Vasco da Gama 33.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 20, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vasco da Gama win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
11/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.87
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Vasco da Gama win · Olimpia Asunción 1–4 Vasco da Gama
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b2387ff007c12f0dc768f666a8db70c60970646c5c98662f4817cf7928b81ebc",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.56,
"away_win_prob": 0.4663,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.46,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2838,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.14,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.52,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.09,
"home_win_prob": 0.2499,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.494,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.506
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Vasco da Gama",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n"
},
"away_xg": 1.56,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Vasco da Gama",
"confidence": 46.7,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Vasco da Gama",
"edge": 0.1346,
"edge_gap": 0.1829,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.332,
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 46.7,
"draw": 28.4,
"home": 25.0
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Vasco da Gama"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.87
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.87,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Vasco da Gama Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.01,
"market_odds": 2.87,
"model_odds": 2.14,
"overround": 4.9,
"prob_edge": 11.9,
"value_pct": 34.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 79.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 66.4,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.56,
"home_expected": 1.09,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n or Draw",
"prob": 53.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n or Vasco da Gama",
"prob": 71.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Vasco da Gama",
"prob": 75.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Vasco da Gama",
"pick_prob": 75.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 46.6,
"draw_pct": 28.4,
"home_pct": 25.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Vasco da Gama"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.65,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 49.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.65,
"under_prob": 50.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 34.1,
"implied_prob": 34.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Vasco da Gama Win",
"model_prob": 46.7,
"odds": 2.87
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Vasco da Gama",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.2,
"draw": 31.24,
"home": 35.56
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-20 21:59:32",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-20 21:29:34",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.56,
"gap_pp": -10.59,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 24.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.24,
"gap_pp": -2.87,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.2,
"gap_pp": 13.46,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 46.66
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.15,
"gap_pp": 9.25,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 49.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.85,
"gap_pp": -9.25,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 50.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.68,
"early": 2.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.56,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
"early": 3.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.24,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.24,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.87,
"early": 2.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.37,
"early": 2.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.15,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.59,
"early": 1.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.85,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.4,
"ev": -0.268,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.1,
"market_prob": 0.1639,
"market_prob_pct": 16.4,
"model_prob": 0.12,
"model_prob_pct": 12.0,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.09,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 2.96,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Away Vasco da Gama",
"edge": 12.9,
"ev": 38.3,
"probability": 46.7
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0917,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0917,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.2,
"text": "+9.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Vasco da Gama",
"sort_key": 10232.53,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 46.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.0
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 49.4,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 50.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"alert_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.43,
"hero_label": "Vasco da Gama",
"market_prob_pct": 33.2,
"market_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"model_prob_pct": 46.6,
"model_team": "Vasco da Gama",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasco da Gama)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasco da Gama)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3393,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasco da Gama at 46.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasco da Gama as the value side (46.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasco da Gama",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vasco da Gama \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1607202 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasco da Gama).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "13/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9285714285714286,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.43,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.56,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 16.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.09,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.56,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.09 \u00b7 Away xG 1.56 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +16%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"steam_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasco da Gama)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasco da Gama)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3393,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasco da Gama at 46.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasco da Gama as the value side (46.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasco da Gama",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vasco da Gama \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1607202 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasco da Gama).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n 1.09 xG vs Vasco da Gama 1.56 \u2192 Vasco da Gama 46.6%",
"Market: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n ~33.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n odds \u2191 +16.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Vasco da Gama projects stronger on expected goals (+0.47 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.57,
"fair_prob": 24.99,
"label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 35.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.86,
"fair_prob": 28.38,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.43,
"fair_prob": 46.63,
"label": "Vasco da Gama",
"market_prob": 33.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.63,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Vasco da Gama",
"market_prob_pct": 33.2,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Vasco da Gama\u0027s win probability at 46.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 33.2%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Vasco da Gama",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.4,
"model_prob_pct": 46.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Vasco da Gama \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n 1.09 xG vs Vasco da Gama 1.56 \u2192 Vasco da Gama 46.6%",
"Market: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n ~33.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n odds \u2191 +16.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Vasco da Gama projects stronger on expected goals (+0.47 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.43,
"hero_label": "Vasco da Gama",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n odds lengthened \u2191 +16.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vasco da Gama.",
"note": "Drift away from Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vasco da Gama.",
"However, Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Vasco da Gama more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (13/14) supports the current market view on Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 18.3 pp (at 46.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 18.3,
"max_prob_pct": 46.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Vasco da Gama",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.4,
"lead": "The model rates Vasco da Gama considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.57,
"edge_pp": -10.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.99,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 35.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.86,
"edge_pp": -2.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.43,
"edge_pp": 13.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.63,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Vasco da Gama",
"market_prob_pct": 33.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n \u2014 odds lengthened by 16.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n (33.2%).",
"However, Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.4%, 13/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Vasco da Gama, Market \u2192 Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n, while Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.84,
"closing_odds": 2.87,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.84,
"entry_odds": 2.87,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 133h 20m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"13/14 books lengthened Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n together (16.4% drift, score 58) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.68",
"2.46",
"2.25"
],
"display": "2.73 \u2192 2.16 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 133h 20m",
"pick_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.73"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.16"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.25,
2.68,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.25,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 13/14 sportsbooks on Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/14",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.4%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_team_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vasco da Gama",
"away_team_id": 133,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/133.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vasco da Gama",
"away_team_public_id": "3xmb4AkHu8ceB5",
"away_team_slug": "vasco-da-gama",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1607202,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"home_team_id": 1182,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1182.webp",
"home_team_name": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n",
"home_team_public_id": "39npebPYRYbf39",
"home_team_slug": "olimpia",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "CONMEBOL Sudamericana",
"league_id": 11,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/11.webp",
"league_name": "CONMEBOL Sudamericana",
"league_public_id": "40qrdYjIr6GFN0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-20 22:00:00",
"public_id": "4Opp3VrLEaTlB2",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3591,
"best_odd": 2.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0483,
"ev": 0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.332,
"draw": 0.3124,
"home": 0.3556
},
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"p_final": 0.3804
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2871,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.3124,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.332,
"draw": 0.3124,
"home": 0.3556
},
"model_prob": 0.2837,
"p_final": 0.3042
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3785,
"best_odd": 2.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0401,
"ev": -0.1545,
"implied_prob": 0.3556,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.332,
"draw": 0.3124,
"home": 0.3556
},
"model_prob": 0.2497,
"p_final": 0.3155
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.87,
"edge": 0.1182,
"ev": 0.3393,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"model_prob": 0.4666
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0442,
"ev": -0.1347,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2837
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.68,
"edge": -0.1235,
"ev": -0.3309,
"implied_prob": 0.3731,
"model_prob": 0.2497
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.65,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3393,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0917,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasco da Gama)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3393,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 55,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vasco da Gama at 46.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vasco da Gama as the value side (46.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vasco da Gama",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vasco da Gama \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1607202 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vasco da Gama).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 15.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.47"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.47
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2837,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4666,
"over_prob": 0.494,
"total_xg": 2.65,
"under_prob": 0.506,
"xg_diff": 0.47
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0483,
"ev": 0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Vasco da Gama"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1607202,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0917,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4666,
"draw": 0.2837,
"home": 0.2497
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vasco da Gama",
"home": "Olimpia Asunci\u00f3n"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.042787,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0917,
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Vasco da Gama",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0917,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4666,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3484320557491289,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1607202,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-20T21:59:34.982326+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Olimpia Asunción & Vasco da Gama!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macará | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Tigre | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | América de Cali | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Alianza Atlético | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tigre | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 | Macará | 6 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | América de Cali | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 4 | Alianza Atlético | 6 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tigre | 6 | 4.1 | 3.0 | +1.1 | 9 |
| 2 | Macará | 6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | -0.4 | 10 |
| 3 | América de Cali | 6 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 4 | Alianza Atlético | 6 | — | — | — | 2 |
