The model missed the final outcome (Muaither SC win 0–1).
The model had projected Al-Gharafa B at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Al-Gharafa B Muaither SC ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa B | 35.6% | 27.4% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.8% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Muaither SC | 34.7% | 48.8% | -14.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Muaither SC's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Muaither SC win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Muaither SC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Al-Gharafa B; match finished Muaither SC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al-Gharafa B by 14.1 percentage points (49.7% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al-Gharafa B 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Muaither SC 34.7%
- xG · Al-Gharafa B 1.31 — Muaither SC 1.29
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al-Gharafa B 3.25 · Draw 3.75 · Muaither SC 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · Al-Gharafa B 27.4% · Draw 23.8% · Muaither SC 48.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al-Gharafa B 3.25 · Draw 3.75 · Muaither SC 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · Al-Gharafa B 27.4% · Draw 23.8% · Muaither SC 48.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Muaither SC win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
10/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Muaither SC win · Al-Gharafa B 0–1 Muaither SC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"over_under": {
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"ev_available": true,
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0381,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0381,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Al-Gharafa B",
"sort_key": 1790.475,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.05,
"hero_label": "Muaither SC",
"market_prob_pct": 27.4,
"market_team": "Muaither SC",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Al-Gharafa B",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al-Gharafa B at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al-Gharafa B as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al-Gharafa B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0381,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.05,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Al-Gharafa B",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al-Gharafa B at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al-Gharafa B as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al-Gharafa B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0381,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al-Gharafa B 1.31 xG vs Muaither SC 1.29 \u2192 Al-Gharafa B 35.6%",
"Market: Muaither SC ~27.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Al-Gharafa B +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al-Gharafa B with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.19,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Al-Gharafa B",
"market_prob": 27.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.86,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.05,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Muaither SC",
"market_prob": 48.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.77,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.77,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.59,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Muaither SC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.75,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Al-Gharafa B"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Muaither SC\u0027s win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Al-Gharafa B",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al-Gharafa B 1.31 xG vs Muaither SC 1.29 \u2192 Al-Gharafa B 35.6%",
"Market: Muaither SC ~27.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Al-Gharafa B +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al-Gharafa B with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.05,
"hero_label": "Muaither SC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Muaither SC is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Muaither SC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Muaither SC than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Muaither SC than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Muaither SC is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Muaither SC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Muaither SC (pricing gap 14.1 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Muaither SC",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Muaither SC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.19,
"edge_pp": 8.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Al-Gharafa B",
"market_prob_pct": 27.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.86,
"edge_pp": 5.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.79,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.05,
"edge_pp": -14.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Muaither SC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Muaither SC than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Muaither SC (27.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Al-Gharafa B, Market \u2192 Muaither SC, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Al-Gharafa B",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Al-Gharafa B",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "muaither-sc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Muaither SC",
"away_team_id": 2902,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2902.webp",
"away_team_name": "Muaither SC",
"away_team_public_id": "0bV7IXPxdWkKGd",
"away_team_slug": "muaither-sc",
"country_code": "QA",
"country_display_name": "Qatar",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/qa.svg",
"country_id": 130,
"country_name": "Qatar",
"fixture_id": 1606540,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Qatar",
"home_team_display_name": "Al-Gharafa B",
"home_team_id": 2911,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2911.webp",
"home_team_name": "Al-Gharafa B",
"home_team_public_id": "5jMI42c5xheDP2",
"home_team_slug": "al-gharafa-b",
"ht.home_team_slug": "al-gharafa-b",
"league_country": "Qatar",
"league_country_display": "Qatar",
"league_display_name": "Qatar Second Division",
"league_id": 306,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/306.webp",
"league_name": "Qatar Second Division",
"league_public_id": "3dQJ3wB5wqE1VF",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 16:15:00",
"public_id": "204M0MMtRvklFy",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4738,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0665,
"ev": -0.2294,
"implied_prob": 0.4875,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4875,
"draw": 0.2379,
"home": 0.2745
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4211
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2735,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.2379,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4875,
"draw": 0.2379,
"home": 0.2745
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.254
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2634,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4875,
"draw": 0.2379,
"home": 0.2745
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.296
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1992,
"ev": -0.3645,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0301,
"ev": 0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": 0.0482,
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.149,
"alpha_yes": 0.1639,
"best_no_odd": 2.19,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0359,
"edge_yes": -0.0359,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0035,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0705,
"ev_yes": -0.1389,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0915,
"implied_no": 0.4191,
"implied_yes": 0.5809,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.149,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.4191,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4244
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0059,
"ev": -0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.5809,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.575
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.4244,
"p_final_yes": 0.575,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1504,
"alpha_under": 0.1368,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.635,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.165,
"edge_over": -0.0877,
"edge_under": 0.0877,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0901,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0425,
"implied_over": 0.5697,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5697,
"implied_under": 0.4303,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4303,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1504,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": -0.0132,
"ev": -0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.5697,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5565
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1368,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4303,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4423
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5565,
"p_final_under": 0.4423,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.1,
"summary": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al-Gharafa B at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al-Gharafa B as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al-Gharafa B",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Al-Gharafa B, but the model still strongly favours Al-Gharafa B.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0381,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Al-Gharafa B"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.149,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0054,
"market_prob": 0.4191,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.4191,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4244
},
"p_final": 0.4244,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0705,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1639,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0059,
"ev": -0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.5809,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0359,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.4191,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1368,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.165,
"edge": 0.012,
"market_prob": 0.4303,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1504,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": -0.0132,
"ev": -0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.5697,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5565
},
"p_final": 0.4423,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0425,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4303,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0877,
"ev": 0.1396,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1606540,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Muaither SC",
"home": "Al-Gharafa B"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044545,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4303,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0381,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.25,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3076923076923077,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1567,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606540,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T16:14:05.740593+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Qatar Second Division — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Bidda SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Waab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Muaither SC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Kharaitiyat | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Mesaimeer | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | UMM Salal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa B | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Shamal II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 3 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Bidda SC | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 3 | Muaither SC | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Al-Khor | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Al Kharaitiyat | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 | UMM Salal | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Mesaimeer | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa B | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Rayyan SC B | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Shamal II | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
