The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Deportivo Rincón at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Deportivo Rincón Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Rincón | 36.1% | 47.8% | -11.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.8% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Costa Brava | 34.2% | 20.5% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Costa Brava's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.5%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Costa Brava.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Deportivo Rincón; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo Rincón by 13.8 percentage points (22.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Rincón 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Costa Brava 34.2%
- xG · Deportivo Rincón 1.32 — Costa Brava 1.28
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Rincón 1.88 · Draw 2.83 · Costa Brava 4.39
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Rincón 47.8% · Draw 31.8% · Costa Brava 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Rincón 1.88 · Draw 2.83 · Costa Brava 4.39
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Rincón 47.8% · Draw 31.8% · Costa Brava 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
31/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.39
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Deportivo Rincón 1–1 Costa Brava
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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},
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"correct_score": {
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{
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"options": [
{
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 18:00:38",
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"largest_move_kind": null,
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{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
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{
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"no": {
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},
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"text": "-28.6%"
},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
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{
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"under": {
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},
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},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.4,
"text": "-25.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3303,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10297.27,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2104,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.0,
"text": "-21.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0056,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3215,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"sort_key": 1798.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"alert_team": "Costa Brava",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.77,
"hero_label": "Costa Brava",
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"market_team": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3303,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606484 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2104,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3215,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.77,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.77,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"steam_team": "Costa Brava",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3303,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606484 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2104,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3215,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n 1.32 xG vs Costa Brava 1.28 \u2192 Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n 36.1%",
"Market: Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n ~47.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Costa Brava \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n, but sharp money moved toward Costa Brava.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.68,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 47.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.1,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.77,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Costa Brava",
"market_prob": 20.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.43,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.43,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Costa Brava",
"market_prob_pct": 20.47,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Costa Brava"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Costa Brava\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 20.5%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.77,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n 1.32 xG vs Costa Brava 1.28 \u2192 Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n 36.1%",
"Market: Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n ~47.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Costa Brava \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n, but sharp money moved toward Costa Brava.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.77,
"hero_label": "Costa Brava",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Costa Brava odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Costa Brava.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Costa Brava.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Costa Brava more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Costa Brava (\u2193 -3.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.77,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Costa Brava",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.8,
"lead": "The model rates Costa Brava considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.68,
"edge_pp": -11.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 47.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.1,
"edge_pp": -2.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.77,
"edge_pp": 13.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Costa Brava",
"market_prob_pct": 20.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n (47.8%).",
"Costa Brava has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 1/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n, Market \u2192 Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n, Recent sharp money \u2192 Costa Brava.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 22.78,
"closing_odds": 4.39,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 22.78,
"entry_odds": 4.39,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Costa Brava (swing 4.46 \u2192 4.00 \u2192 4.20) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.39",
"4.29",
"4.20"
],
"display": "4.46 \u2192 4.00 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 44m",
"pick_team": "Costa Brava",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.46"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
4.39,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,5.7 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.39"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Costa Brava",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Market moved toward Costa Brava while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Costa Brava",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Costa Brava",
"steam_score": 10,
"steam_team_name": "Costa Brava",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Costa Brava",
"away_team_id": 25757,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25757.webp",
"away_team_name": "Costa Brava",
"away_team_public_id": "0wQZvuLzQTnqTv",
"away_team_slug": "costa-brava",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1606484,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"home_team_id": 1959,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1959.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"home_team_public_id": "0GkdcvLhO4e4IN",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-rincon",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 18:00:00",
"public_id": "62GODIh7DXyyw8",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rincon de Los Sauces",
"venue_name": "Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1587,
"best_odd": 4.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": -0.0056,
"implied_prob": 0.2047,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2047,
"draw": 0.3175,
"home": 0.4779
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2265
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.436,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1272,
"implied_prob": 0.3175,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2047,
"draw": 0.3175,
"home": 0.4779
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3084
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4947,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0579,
"ev": -0.2104,
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2047,
"draw": 0.3175,
"home": 0.4779
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.42
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.39,
"edge": 0.1146,
"ev": 0.5031,
"implied_prob": 0.2278,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0567,
"ev": -0.1604,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.171,
"ev": -0.3214,
"implied_prob": 0.5319,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1932,
"alpha_yes": 0.1405,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.31,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1443,
"edge_yes": 0.1443,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2856,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1261,
"ev_yes": 0.259,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0357,
"implied_no": 0.5993,
"implied_yes": 0.4007,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.6013,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.573
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3987,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4192
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.573,
"p_final_yes": 0.4192,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1405,
"alpha_under": 0.1932,
"best_over_odd": 2.76,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.69,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1429,
"edge_under": -0.1429,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3303,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0414,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1351,
"implied_over": 0.3391,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3358,
"implied_under": 0.6609,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6642,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3563
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1351,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6359
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3563,
"p_final_under": 0.6359,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3303,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5031,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3303,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3303,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +50% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1606484 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +33.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +33.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +33.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +33.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+33.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +50% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Costa Brava, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2104,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3215,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0579,
"ev": -0.2104,
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.3987,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.6013,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.573
},
"p_final": 0.4192,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3987,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4192
}
},
"edge": 0.1443,
"ev": 0.259,
"implied_prob": 0.4007,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0205,
"market_prob": 0.3358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3563
},
"p_final": 0.3563,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0414,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1351,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6359
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1429,
"ev": 0.3303,
"implied_prob": 0.3391,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1606484,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3303,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3303,
"implied_prob": 0.3391,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3303,
"implied_prob": 0.3391,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Costa Brava",
"home": "Deportivo Rinc\u00f3n"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.141155,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.259,
"implied_prob": 0.4007,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2104,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3215,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1606484,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T18:00:40.010379+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Deportivo Rincón & Costa Brava!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Torneo Federal A — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahía Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martín Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martín Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo Bahía Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
