AI correctly predicted the Fátima win.
The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Fátima Fátima ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fátima | 37.1% | 38.6% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.7% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Atlético Malveira | 33.3% | 30.7% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Fátima win 5–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Fátima win 5–0).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fátima 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Atlético Malveira 33.4%
- xG · Fátima 1.34 — Atlético Malveira 1.26
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fátima 2.29 · Draw 2.88 · Atlético Malveira 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · Fátima 38.6% · Draw 30.7% · Atlético Malveira 30.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
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Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Fátima 2.29 · Draw 2.88 · Atlético Malveira 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · Fátima 38.6% · Draw 30.7% · Atlético Malveira 30.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fátima win · 5–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Oliveira Hospital | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Os Marialvas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Fátima | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | O Elvas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Naval 1º de Maio | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Atlético Malveira | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Fazendense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | FC Alverca II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Nazarenos | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 | Fátima | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | UD da Serra | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Oliveira Hospital | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Naval 1º de Maio | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | AD Nogueirense | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Fazendense | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Atlético Malveira | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | O Elvas | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | FC Alverca II | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Nazarenos | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
