The model missed the final outcome (Ponte da Barca win 0–1).
The model had projected Maia Lidador at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Maia Lidador Ponte da Barca ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maia Lidador | 36.1% | 55.6% | -19.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Ponte da Barca | 34.2% | 19.2% | +15.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Maia Lidador's win probability at 55.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 19.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Ponte da Barca win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Maia Lidador than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Maia Lidador; match finished Ponte da Barca
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Maia Lidador by 19.5 percentage points (55.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Maia Lidador 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ponte da Barca 34.2%
- xG · Maia Lidador 1.32 — Ponte da Barca 1.28
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Maia Lidador 1.60 · Draw 3.54 · Ponte da Barca 4.63
- Implied 1X2 · Maia Lidador 55.6% · Draw 25.1% · Ponte da Barca 19.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Maia Lidador 1.60 · Draw 3.54 · Ponte da Barca 4.63
- Implied 1X2 · Maia Lidador 55.6% · Draw 25.1% · Ponte da Barca 19.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ponte da Barca win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bragança | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Tirsense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Chaves II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | SC Braga B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Vila Meã | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Os Limianos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Celoricense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montalegre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Brito | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Braga B | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 8 |
| 2 | Bragança | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Tirsense | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Vila Meã | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Os Limianos | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Montalegre | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | Chaves II | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Brito | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 9 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Celoricense | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Rebordosa | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
