The model missed the final outcome (Tanjong Pagar win 3–4).
The model had projected Balestier Khalsa at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Balestier Khalsa Tanjong Pagar ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balestier Khalsa | 46.8% | 55.9% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 18.4% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Tanjong Pagar | 24.5% | 25.7% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.4%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Tanjong Pagar win 3–4.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Balestier Khalsa by 10.2 percentage points (36.5% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Balestier Khalsa 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · Tanjong Pagar 24.6%
- xG · Balestier Khalsa 1.54 — Tanjong Pagar 1.06
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Balestier Khalsa 1.64 · Draw 4.98 · Tanjong Pagar 3.56
- Implied 1X2 · Balestier Khalsa 55.9% · Draw 18.4% · Tanjong Pagar 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Balestier Khalsa 1.64 · Draw 4.98 · Tanjong Pagar 3.56
- Implied 1X2 · Balestier Khalsa 55.9% · Draw 18.4% · Tanjong Pagar 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tanjong Pagar win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
48/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.98
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tanjong Pagar win · Balestier Khalsa 3–4 Tanjong Pagar
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-37.8%"
},
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"sort_key": 10414.09,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 52.9
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1612,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0027,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2333,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Balestier Khalsa",
"sort_key": 5202.16,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"alert_team": "Tanjong Pagar",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.25,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 55.9,
"market_team": "Balestier Khalsa",
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"model_team": "Balestier Khalsa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Balestier Khalsa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Balestier Khalsa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Balestier Khalsa at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Balestier Khalsa as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Balestier Khalsa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +96.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +96.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +96.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+96.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Balestier Khalsa).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1612,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2333,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.25,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.25,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.06,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.54,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.54,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.54 \u00b7 Away xG 1.06 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +14%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"steam_team": "Tanjong Pagar",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Balestier Khalsa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Balestier Khalsa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Balestier Khalsa at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Balestier Khalsa as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Balestier Khalsa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +96.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +96.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +96.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+96.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Balestier Khalsa).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1612,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2333,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Balestier Khalsa 1.54 xG vs Tanjong Pagar 1.06 \u2192 Balestier Khalsa 46.8%",
"Market: Balestier Khalsa ~55.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Tanjong Pagar odds \u2191 +15.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Balestier Khalsa projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.06,
"fair_prob": 46.81,
"label": "Balestier Khalsa",
"market_prob": 55.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.25,
"fair_prob": 28.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 18.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.2,
"fair_prob": 24.54,
"label": "Tanjong Pagar",
"market_prob": 25.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -24.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 72.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 27.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.25,
"fair_prob": 52.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.25,
"fair_prob": 47.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.4,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Tanjong Pagar"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 18.4%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.25,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Balestier Khalsa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.1,
"model_prob_pct": 46.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Balestier Khalsa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Balestier Khalsa 1.54 xG vs Tanjong Pagar 1.06 \u2192 Balestier Khalsa 46.8%",
"Market: Balestier Khalsa ~55.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Tanjong Pagar odds \u2191 +15.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Balestier Khalsa projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.25,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Tanjong Pagar odds lengthened \u2191 +15.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Tanjong Pagar has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Tanjong Pagar \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.",
"However, Tanjong Pagar has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Tanjong Pagar \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Draw more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Tanjong Pagar has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.25,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 18.2 pp (at 46.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 18.2,
"max_prob_pct": 46.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.2,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.06,
"edge_pp": -9.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Balestier Khalsa",
"market_prob_pct": 55.87,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.25,
"edge_pp": 10.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.4,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.2,
"edge_pp": -1.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tanjong Pagar",
"market_prob_pct": 25.74,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Tanjong Pagar \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Balestier Khalsa (55.9%).",
"Tanjong Pagar odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +15.9%, 2/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Balestier Khalsa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 20.08,
"closing_odds": 4.98,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 20.08,
"entry_odds": 4.98,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Tanjong Pagar (15.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.16",
"3.56"
],
"display": "4.75 \u2192 3.56 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 23m",
"pick_team": "Tanjong Pagar",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
3.56,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.8 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Tanjong Pagar",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Tanjong Pagar",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Tanjong Pagar",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Tanjong Pagar",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tanjong-pagar",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tanjong Pagar",
"away_team_id": 10077,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10077.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tanjong Pagar",
"away_team_public_id": "39pfJjXgTlmlji",
"away_team_slug": "tanjong-pagar",
"country_code": "SG",
"country_display_name": "Singapore",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sg.svg",
"country_id": 139,
"country_name": "Singapore",
"fixture_id": 1603464,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Singapore",
"home_team_display_name": "Balestier Khalsa",
"home_team_id": 4201,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4201.webp",
"home_team_name": "Balestier Khalsa",
"home_team_public_id": "4qI1noVYPsrkOa",
"home_team_slug": "balestier-khalsa",
"ht.home_team_slug": "balestier-khalsa",
"league_country": "Singapore",
"league_country_display": "Singapore",
"league_display_name": "Liga Perdana Singapura",
"league_id": 368,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/368.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Perdana Singapura",
"league_public_id": "3vgQEPUjrwCUuO",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:30:00",
"public_id": "2oRNv1AKEG3hxD",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Singapore",
"venue_name": "Bishan Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2948,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.0959,
"implied_prob": 0.2574,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2574,
"draw": 0.184,
"home": 0.5587
},
"model_prob": 0.2458,
"p_final": 0.254
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1692,
"best_odd": 4.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": 0.0027,
"implied_prob": 0.184,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2574,
"draw": 0.184,
"home": 0.5587
},
"model_prob": 0.2867,
"p_final": 0.2014
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.518,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0472,
"ev": -0.1612,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2574,
"draw": 0.184,
"home": 0.5587
},
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"p_final": 0.5114
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1249,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2458
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.98,
"edge": 0.0859,
"ev": 0.4276,
"implied_prob": 0.2008,
"model_prob": 0.2867
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.1422,
"ev": -0.2333,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.4675
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1394,
"alpha_yes": 0.1917,
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1525,
"edge_yes": -0.1525,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4601,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.03,
"ev_yes": -0.2594,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1282,
"implied_no": 0.3185,
"implied_yes": 0.6815,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.03,
"implied_prob": 0.3206,
"model_prob": 0.471,
"p_final": 0.3415
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"best_odd": 1.34,
"edge": -0.0288,
"ev": -0.1282,
"implied_prob": 0.6794,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"p_final": 0.6506
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3415,
"p_final_yes": 0.6506,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1563,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.29,
"best_under_odd": 3.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.34,
"edge_over": -0.2478,
"edge_under": 0.2478,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3782,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1384,
"ev_under": 0.9684,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0248,
"implied_over": 0.7298,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7277,
"implied_under": 0.2702,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2723,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 1.25,
"edge": -0.0384,
"ev": -0.1384,
"implied_prob": 0.7277,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6893
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0248,
"implied_prob": 0.2723,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.292
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6893,
"p_final_under": 0.292,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9684,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Balestier Khalsa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.9684,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Balestier Khalsa at 46.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Balestier Khalsa as the value side (46.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Balestier Khalsa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +96.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +96.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +96.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+96.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Balestier Khalsa).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1612,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2333,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.529,
"draw_prob": 0.2867,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4675,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.48
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0472,
"ev": -0.1612,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Balestier Khalsa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.021,
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.021,
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"p_final": 0.3415,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.03,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0197,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.292,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0248,
"under": {
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},
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},
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1603464,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9684,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.4675
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.4601,
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tanjong Pagar",
"home": "Balestier Khalsa"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9684,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1612,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4675,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2333,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1603464,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:31:25.648924+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Singapura — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata (S) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata (S) | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 3 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 5 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Home United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Hougang United | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
