AI correctly predicted the Hearts of Oak win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Hearts of Oak Hearts of Oak ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts of Oak | 38.5% | 46.6% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.8% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Berekum Chelsea | 31.9% | 20.6% | +11.4 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Berekum Chelsea's win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.6%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Hearts of Oak win 4–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Berekum Chelsea.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hearts of Oak more conservatively (27.1% vs model 38.5%, 11.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hearts of Oak win 4–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hearts of Oak 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Berekum Chelsea 31.9%
- xG · Hearts of Oak 1.37 — Berekum Chelsea 1.23
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hearts of Oak 1.91 · Draw 2.71 · Berekum Chelsea 4.33
- Implied 1X2 · Hearts of Oak 46.6% · Draw 32.8% · Berekum Chelsea 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hearts of Oak 1.91 · Draw 2.71 · Berekum Chelsea 4.33
- Implied 1X2 · Hearts of Oak 46.6% · Draw 32.8% · Berekum Chelsea 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hearts of Oak win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
43/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.33
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hearts of Oak win · Hearts of Oak 4–0 Berekum Chelsea
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1918,
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"text": "-19.2%"
},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.4,
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"market_prob_pct": 46.6,
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"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
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"show": true,
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"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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}
],
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2838,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3834,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hearts of Oak at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hearts of Oak as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hearts of Oak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Hearts of Oak \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.54 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602106 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.54 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1918,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.38,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.38,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Hearts of Oak",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2838,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3834,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hearts of Oak at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hearts of Oak as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hearts of Oak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Hearts of Oak \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.54 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602106 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.54 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1918,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hearts of Oak 1.37 xG vs Berekum Chelsea 1.23 \u2192 Hearts of Oak 38.5%",
"Market: Hearts of Oak ~46.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Hearts of Oak +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hearts of Oak with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.11,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Hearts of Oak",
"market_prob": 46.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.27,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.38,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"market_prob": 20.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.7,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.7,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Berekum Chelsea",
"market_prob_pct": 20.56,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Hearts of Oak"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Berekum Chelsea\u0027s win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 20.6%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.38,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hearts of Oak",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Hearts of Oak \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hearts of Oak 1.37 xG vs Berekum Chelsea 1.23 \u2192 Hearts of Oak 38.5%",
"Market: Hearts of Oak ~46.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Hearts of Oak +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hearts of Oak with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.38,
"hero_label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Berekum Chelsea.",
"note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Berekum Chelsea.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Berekum Chelsea."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Berekum Chelsea more strongly than current market pricing.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.38,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.4,
"lead": "The model rates Berekum Chelsea considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.11,
"edge_pp": -8.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hearts of Oak",
"market_prob_pct": 46.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.27,
"edge_pp": -3.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.38,
"edge_pp": 11.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Berekum Chelsea",
"market_prob_pct": 20.56,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Berekum Chelsea.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hearts of Oak (46.6%).",
"Hearts of Oak \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.09,
"closing_odds": 4.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.09,
"entry_odds": 4.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 1.73,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.73,
"pick_team": "Hearts of Oak",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Hearts of Oak",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Berekum Chelsea",
"away_team_id": 12244,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12244.webp",
"away_team_name": "Berekum Chelsea",
"away_team_public_id": "0Munw7mV2NQs6B",
"away_team_slug": "berekum-chelsea",
"country_code": "GH",
"country_display_name": "Ghana",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gh.svg",
"country_id": 61,
"country_name": "Ghana",
"fixture_id": 1602106,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ghana",
"home_team_display_name": "Hearts of Oak",
"home_team_id": 12249,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12249.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hearts of Oak",
"home_team_public_id": "3WAtY8rnfmwWkw",
"home_team_slug": "hearts-of-oak",
"league_country": "Ghana",
"league_country_display": "Ghana",
"league_display_name": "Ghana Premier League",
"league_id": 570,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/570.webp",
"league_name": "Ghana Premier League",
"league_public_id": "0L7C8yH8Y3pmGh",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 15:00:00",
"public_id": "2FqdwKH32shQss",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Accra",
"venue_name": "University of Ghana Sports Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1658,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.0281,
"implied_prob": 0.2056,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2056,
"draw": 0.3284,
"home": 0.466
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2245
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.428,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0139,
"ev": -0.1477,
"implied_prob": 0.3284,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2056,
"draw": 0.3284,
"home": 0.466
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3145
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5268,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1918,
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2056,
"draw": 0.3284,
"home": 0.466
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4231
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0886,
"ev": 0.3834,
"implied_prob": 0.2309,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0731,
"ev": -0.1982,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.1389,
"ev": -0.2654,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1325,
"alpha_yes": 0.0963,
"best_no_odd": 1.5,
"best_yes_odd": 2.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.157,
"edge_yes": 0.157,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.316,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1176,
"ev_yes": 0.2838,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.051,
"implied_no": 0.613,
"implied_yes": 0.387,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1325,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.613,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5922
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0963,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4021
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5922,
"p_final_yes": 0.4021,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1453,
"alpha_under": 0.1998,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.56,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.4,
"edge_over": 0.1281,
"edge_under": -0.1281,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0472,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1309,
"implied_over": 0.3539,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3535,
"implied_under": 0.6461,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6465,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3722
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6465,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6208
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3722,
"p_final_under": 0.6208,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2838,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3834,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2838,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2838,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3834,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hearts of Oak at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hearts of Oak as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hearts of Oak",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Hearts of Oak \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.54 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +38% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1602106 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.54 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +28.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hearts of Oak).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +38% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1918,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1918,
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hearts of Oak"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0963,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.387,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1325,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.613,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5922
},
"p_final": 0.4021,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.051,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.051,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
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}
},
"edge": 0.157,
"ev": 0.2838,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.3535,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.3535,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3722
},
"p_final": 0.3722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0472,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6465,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6208
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1281,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1602106,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2838,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Berekum Chelsea",
"home": "Hearts of Oak"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.135861,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2838,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1918,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.466,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1602106,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T15:01:54.938401+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Hearts of Oak & Berekum Chelsea!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Ghana Premier League — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Samartex | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Port City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Ashanti Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Aduana Stars | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Karela | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Medeama | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Vision | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Heart of Lions | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Swedru All Blacks | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Asante Kotoko | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Debibi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Berekum Chelsea | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Dreams | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Samartex | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 4 | Ashanti Gold | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Vision | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | Debibi United | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Karela | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Port City | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Dreams | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Aduana Stars | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Bechem United | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 | Basake Holy Stars | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Swedru All Blacks | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 18 | Young Apostles | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
