Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Itali. Serie B / Verona vs Catanzaro

Audit Ramalan: Verona vs Catanzaro Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Oct 16, 2026 - 18:30
2 2.00
2 1.45
xG Accuracy: 86%

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Verona at 50.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan C

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Verona Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-2 ✔ Betul

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.45) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Verona; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Oct 16, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Verona 2.00 — Catanzaro 1.45
  2. Oct 16, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Observe
Keputusan Sejarah No Primary Bet
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 10, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14559635

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Verona 2–2 Catanzaro
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "ea7be75251a7b5cc840fd7d1a36dcd64962b4370392f4dd735ff633c6439c670",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.2581,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2419,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.5001,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.45,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2581,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2581,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.326,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.674,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2419,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.2419,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.87,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.87,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.13,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.13,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.0,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.0,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.0,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5001,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.5001,
      "over_25_prob": 0.67,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.33
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Verona",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Verona"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.45,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Verona",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0319,
        "edge_gap": 0.2415,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5316,
        "model_prob": 0.4997,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 25.8,
          "draw": 24.2,
          "home": 50.0
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
          "odd": 1.85
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
          "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
          "odd": 1.83
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
          "odd": 1.8
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
          "odd": 1.8
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
          "odd": 1.8
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.74
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
          "odd": 1.73
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
          "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
          "odd": 1.72
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.85,
        "bookmaker_id": 32,
        "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
        "display_market": "Verona Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.88,
        "market_odds": 1.76,
        "model_odds": 2.0,
        "overround": 6.6,
        "prob_edge": -4.1,
        "value_pct": -7.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 1,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 5,
        "away_score_rate": 76.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 5,
        "home_score_rate": 86.5,
        "no_prob": 32.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 67.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 67.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.45,
        "home_expected": 2.0,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 9.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.2
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 6.7
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 6.3
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Verona or Draw",
            "prob": 74.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Verona or Catanzaro",
            "prob": 75.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Catanzaro",
            "prob": 50.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Verona or Catanzaro",
        "pick_prob": 75.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 25.8,
        "draw_pct": 24.2,
        "home_pct": 50.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Verona"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.45,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 67.0,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 67.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.45,
        "under_prob": 33.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 4,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 25.4,
        "implied_prob": 20.6,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Catanzaro Win",
        "model_prob": 25.8,
        "odds": 4.86
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "has_data": false
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": -4.1,
        "ev": -0.31,
        "has_edge": false,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 7.5,
        "market_prob": 0.1333,
        "market_prob_pct": 13.3,
        "model_prob": 0.092,
        "model_prob_pct": 9.2,
        "n_bookmakers": 8,
        "status_key": "no_value"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 9.2
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 9.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 9.2
        },
        {
          "label": "1-2",
          "prob": 6.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2-2",
          "prob": 6.7
        },
        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 6.3
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 2.0,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.4869,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 1.73,
          "edge": 0.0639,
          "edge_pp": 6.4,
          "market_prob": 0.5387,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.67,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.4869,
            "best_odd": 1.73,
            "edge": 0.0639,
            "ev": 0.0425,
            "implied_prob": 0.5387,
            "model_prob": 0.67,
            "p_final": 0.6026
          },
          "p_final": 0.6026,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.1591,
          "risk_adj_ev": 0.0425,
          "under": {
            "alpha": 0.4427,
            "best_odd": 2.02,
            "edge": -0.0581,
            "ev": -0.1855,
            "implied_prob": 0.4613,
            "model_prob": 0.33,
            "p_final": 0.4032
          },
          "value_side": "over"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.2261,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 22.6,
          "text": "+22.6%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.3136,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -31.4,
          "text": "-31.4%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2261,
        "n_bookmakers": 8,
        "over_prob": 67.0,
        "sort_key": 10353.49,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 33.0,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.4707,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 1.685,
          "edge": 0.058,
          "edge_pp": 5.8,
          "market_prob": 0.5507,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.674,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.4279,
            "best_odd": 2.065,
            "edge": -0.0528,
            "ev": -0.1811,
            "implied_prob": 0.4493,
            "model_prob": 0.326,
            "p_final": 0.3966
          },
          "p_final": 0.6087,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "raw_edge_pp": 12.3,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.1357,
          "risk_adj_ev": 0.0257,
          "value_side": "yes",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.4707,
            "best_odd": 1.685,
            "edge": 0.058,
            "ev": 0.0257,
            "implied_prob": 0.5507,
            "model_prob": 0.674,
            "p_final": 0.6087
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.3154,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -31.5,
          "text": "-31.5%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.166,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 16.6,
          "text": "+16.6%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.166,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "no_prob": 32.6,
        "sort_key": 10149.4,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 67.4
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "primary",
        "consensus_odds": 1.77,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "ev": -0.0912,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -9.1,
          "text": "-9.1%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5317,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.024,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -2.4,
          "text": "-2.4%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4997,
        "raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%",
        "show_primary_label": true,
        "side_label": "Verona",
        "sort_key": 1794.0,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 807.6,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 9.2
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "5/10",
        "alert_breadth_note": "5/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +18.2%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 0.0,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": null,
        "hero_label": "",
        "market_prob_pct": null,
        "market_team": "Verona",
        "model_prob_pct": 50.0,
        "model_team": "Verona",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
        "steam_score": 48,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 3.2,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona)."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "primary",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 3.2,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona)."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.2261,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.2552,
          "confidence_band": "High",
          "decision_strength": 7.5,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
          "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
          "execution_confidence": 68,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": true,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Verona at 50.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.2%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Verona as the value side (50.0%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 3.2,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Verona",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "65 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "68 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona).",
            "Decision strength: 7.5/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 65,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Clear xG separation"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.0912,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-9.1%",
            "consensus_odds": 1.77,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.5317,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4997,
            "raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 48.1,
            "reasons": [
              "Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.5,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "clear",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 5,
              "strength_delta": 0.5,
              "xg_gap": 0.55
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "5/10",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.5,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 78,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation pending",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pending",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift aligns with model",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 25.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 5.0,
            "steam_coherence": 10.0,
            "validation": 8.0
          },
          "score": 65,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "market_agreement": "unknown",
        "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.45,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 48.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 2.0,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 2.0,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 2.00 \u00b7 Away xG 1.45 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +48%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": true,
        "mv_status": "pending",
        "odds_delta_pct": 18.2,
        "steam_conflicts": false,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
        "steam_team": "Draw",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 68,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 84,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 50,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 84,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 3.2,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 3.2,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "high",
              "probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.2261,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.2552,
            "confidence_band": "High",
            "decision_strength": 7.5,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 68,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Verona at 50.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.2%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Verona as the value side (50.0%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 3.2,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Verona",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "65 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "68 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona).",
              "Decision strength: 7.5/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 65,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Clear xG separation"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.0912,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-9.1%",
              "consensus_odds": 1.77,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.5317,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4997,
              "raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 48.1,
              "reasons": [
                "Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.5,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "clear",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 5,
                "strength_delta": 0.5,
                "xg_gap": 0.55
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Verona 2.00 xG vs Catanzaro 1.45 \u2192 Verona 50.0%",
            "Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +18.2%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Verona projects stronger on expected goals (+0.55 xG edge).",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 50.01,
          "label": "Verona",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 24.19,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 25.81,
          "label": "Catanzaro",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.47,
          "fair_prob": 67.0,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 53.53,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.47,
          "fair_prob": 33.0,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 46.47,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 12.36,
          "fair_prob": 67.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 55.04,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -12.36,
          "fair_prob": 32.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 44.96,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {},
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
        "comparison_available": false,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "unknown",
          "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "",
        "edge_label_key": "",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Verona",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 53.2,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -3.2,
          "model_prob_pct": 50.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -3.2,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 65,
          "reliability_tier": "moderate",
          "summary": "Verona \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pending",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 68,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 84,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 50,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 84,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Verona 2.00 xG vs Catanzaro 1.45 \u2192 Verona 50.0%",
              "Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +18.2%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Verona projects stronger on expected goals (+0.55 xG edge).",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": null,
        "hero_label": "",
        "hero_side": null,
        "market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +18.2%.",
        "market_agreement": "unknown",
        "market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
          "status": "pending"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pending",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 24.2 pp (at 50.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 24.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 50.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "aligned",
          "largest_gap_label": "",
          "largest_gap_pp": null,
          "lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
          "level": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 0.0,
          "title": "Broadly Aligned"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 50.01,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Verona",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 24.19,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": null,
            "edge_pp": null,
            "fair_prob_pct": 25.81,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Catanzaro",
            "market_prob_pct": null,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "",
            "signal_label": ""
          }
        ],
        "status": "unknown",
        "status_label": "\u2014",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": "",
        "paragraphs": [
          "The statistical model leans Verona (50.0%).",
          "Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +18.2%, 5/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
          "Verona \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": null,
        "closing_odds": null,
        "closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
        "closing_status": "unavailable",
        "closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
        "entry_implied_pct": 25.64,
        "entry_odds": 3.9,
        "match_phase": "live",
        "match_phase_detail": "HT",
        "match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 HT",
        "match_phase_label": "Live",
        "model_validation_label": "Pending",
        "model_validation_status": "pending",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "unavailable"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 5,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 18.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 5,
            "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 7.3
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 9,
            "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 4.2
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 10,
        "breadth_display": "5/10",
        "clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
        "clv_status": "waiting",
        "current_odds": 3.9,
        "is_drift": true,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
        "move_pct_abs": 18.2,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 84h 36m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book drift on Draw (18.2%, 5/10) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
          "Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 18.2,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "3.90",
            "3.60",
            "3.30"
          ],
          "display": "3.93 \u2192 3.17 \u2192 3.90",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 84h 36m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.93"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.17"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.90"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            3.3,
            3.9
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.30"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "3.30"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "3.90"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.90"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 3.3,
        "page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/10 sportsbooks on Draw",
        "phase_label": "Market drift",
        "phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "fade",
        "signal_icon": "\u2198",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 3.9,
          "is_drift": true,
          "label": "Market Signal",
          "move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
          "open_odds": 3.3,
          "summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
          "team": "Draw",
          "tone": "with"
        },
        "signal_key": "market_drift",
        "signal_label": "Drift",
        "steam_score": 48,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "5/10",
        "current_odds": 3.9,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
        "open_odds": 3.3,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 48,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {},
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "catanzaro",
      "away_expected_goals": 0.24,
      "away_goal_display": 1,
      "away_team_display_name": "Catanzaro",
      "away_team_id": 1687,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1687.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Catanzaro",
      "away_team_public_id": "3HjiZQgmfxmF30",
      "away_team_slug": "catanzaro",
      "country_code": "IT",
      "country_display_name": "Italy",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
      "country_id": 79,
      "country_name": "Italy",
      "fixture_id": 1601562,
      "goals_away": 1,
      "goals_home": 1,
      "home_expected_goals": 0.69,
      "home_goal_display": 1,
      "home_team_country": "Italy",
      "home_team_display_name": "Verona",
      "home_team_id": 504,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/504.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Verona",
      "home_team_name_canonical": "Verona",
      "home_team_public_id": "4Kw8k1MrQHulTa",
      "home_team_slug": "verona",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "verona",
      "league_country": "Italy",
      "league_country_display": "Italy",
      "league_display_name": "Serie B",
      "league_id": 136,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/136.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B",
      "league_public_id": "5G7GlldQMogSrT",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-10-16 18:30:00",
      "public_id": "5HGktZD9mVVpNa",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Halftime",
      "status_short": "HT",
      "venue_city": "Verona",
      "venue_name": "Marc\u0027Antonio Bentegodi"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1872,
            "best_odd": 4.365,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.008,
            "ev": -0.024,
            "implied_prob": 0.2156,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2156,
              "draw": 0.2527,
              "home": 0.5317
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2583,
            "p_final": 0.2236
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2952,
            "best_odd": 3.725,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0031,
            "ev": -0.0706,
            "implied_prob": 0.2527,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2156,
              "draw": 0.2527,
              "home": 0.5317
            },
            "model_prob": 0.242,
            "p_final": 0.2495
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5712,
            "best_odd": 1.77,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0183,
            "ev": -0.0912,
            "implied_prob": 0.5317,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2156,
              "draw": 0.2527,
              "home": 0.5317
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4997,
            "p_final": 0.5135
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 4.86,
            "edge": 0.0525,
            "ev": 0.2552,
            "implied_prob": 0.2058,
            "model_prob": 0.2583
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.93,
            "edge": -0.0125,
            "ev": -0.0489,
            "implied_prob": 0.2545,
            "model_prob": 0.242
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 1.85,
            "edge": -0.0408,
            "ev": -0.0755,
            "implied_prob": 0.5405,
            "model_prob": 0.4997
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.4279,
          "alpha_yes": 0.4707,
          "best_no_odd": 2.1,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.73,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.1236,
          "edge_yes": 0.1236,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.3154,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1811,
          "ev_yes": 0.166,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": 0.0257,
          "implied_no": 0.4496,
          "implied_yes": 0.5504,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.4279,
              "best_odd": 2.065,
              "edge": -0.0528,
              "ev": -0.1811,
              "implied_prob": 0.4493,
              "model_prob": 0.326,
              "p_final": 0.3966
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.4707,
              "best_odd": 1.685,
              "edge": 0.058,
              "ev": 0.0257,
              "implied_prob": 0.5507,
              "model_prob": 0.674,
              "p_final": 0.6087
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "p_final_no": 0.3966,
          "p_final_yes": 0.6087,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.4869,
          "alpha_under": 0.4427,
          "best_over_odd": 1.83,
          "best_under_odd": 2.08,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
          "consensus_under_odd": 2.02,
          "edge_over": 0.1347,
          "edge_under": -0.1347,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.2261,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0425,
          "ev_under": -0.3136,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1855,
          "implied_over": 0.5353,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.5387,
          "implied_under": 0.4647,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.4613,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 8,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.4869,
              "best_odd": 1.73,
              "edge": 0.0639,
              "ev": 0.0425,
              "implied_prob": 0.5387,
              "model_prob": 0.67,
              "p_final": 0.6026
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.4427,
              "best_odd": 2.02,
              "edge": -0.0581,
              "ev": -0.1855,
              "implied_prob": 0.4613,
              "model_prob": 0.33,
              "p_final": 0.4032
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.6026,
          "p_final_under": 0.4032,
          "prediction_confidence": "high",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.45,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.2261,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.2552,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2261,
      "boundary": {
        "ev_path": "market_first",
        "probs_source": "posterior"
      },
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Clear xG separation"
        ],
        "score": 7.5,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Clear xG separation"
        ],
        "score": 7.5,
        "score_pre_penalty": 7.0
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "ev_path": "market_first",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 3.2,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.2261,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.2552,
        "confidence_band": "High",
        "decision_strength": 7.5,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 68,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Verona at 50.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.2%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Verona as the value side (50.0%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 3.2,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Verona",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "65 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "68 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Verona).",
          "Decision strength: 7.5/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 65,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Clear xG separation"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.0912,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-9.1%",
          "consensus_odds": 1.77,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.5317,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4997,
          "raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 48.1,
          "reasons": [
            "Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.5,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "clear",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 5,
            "strength_delta": 0.5,
            "xg_gap": 0.55
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.674,
          "draw_prob": 0.242,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4997,
          "over_prob": 0.67,
          "total_xg": 3.45,
          "under_prob": 0.33,
          "xg_diff": 0.55
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 1.77,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0183,
          "ev": -0.0912,
          "implied_prob": 0.5317,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4997,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Verona"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.4707,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.685,
            "edge": 0.058,
            "market_prob": 0.5507,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.674,
            "n_bookmakers": 7,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.4279,
              "best_odd": 2.065,
              "edge": -0.0528,
              "ev": -0.1811,
              "implied_prob": 0.4493,
              "model_prob": 0.326,
              "p_final": 0.3966
            },
            "p_final": 0.6087,
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "risk_adj_ev": 0.0257,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.4707,
              "best_odd": 1.685,
              "edge": 0.058,
              "ev": 0.0257,
              "implied_prob": 0.5507,
              "model_prob": 0.674,
              "p_final": 0.6087
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.1236,
          "ev": 0.166,
          "implied_prob": 0.5504,
          "model_prob": 0.674,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.4869,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.73,
            "edge": 0.0639,
            "market_prob": 0.5387,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.67,
            "n_bookmakers": 8,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.4869,
              "best_odd": 1.73,
              "edge": 0.0639,
              "ev": 0.0425,
              "implied_prob": 0.5387,
              "model_prob": 0.67,
              "p_final": 0.6026
            },
            "p_final": 0.6026,
            "prediction_confidence": "high",
            "risk_adj_ev": 0.0425,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.4427,
              "best_odd": 2.02,
              "edge": -0.0581,
              "ev": -0.1855,
              "implied_prob": 0.4613,
              "model_prob": 0.33,
              "p_final": 0.4032
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.1347,
          "ev": 0.2261,
          "implied_prob": 0.5353,
          "model_prob": 0.67,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1601562,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2261,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2583,
        "draw": 0.242,
        "home": 0.4997
      },
      "probs_source": "posterior",
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.166,
        "implied_prob": 0.5504,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.674,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.166,
          "implied_prob": 0.5504,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.674,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Catanzaro",
        "home": "Verona"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.189359,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2261,
        "implied_prob": 0.5353,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.67,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.0912,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-9.1%",
        "consensus_odds": 1.77,
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "implied_prob": 0.5317,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4997,
        "raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1601562,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-16T19:34:16.127942+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Verona & Catanzaro!

Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.

Langgan Sekarang
Kembali ke Ramalan
Serie B Serie B — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Palermo 6 5 1 0 16
2 Mantova 6 4 2 0 14
3 Modena 6 4 1 1 13
4 Sudtirol 6 3 3 0 12
5 Ascoli 6 3 2 1 11
6 Avellino 6 3 1 2 10
7 Pisa 6 3 1 2 10
8 Benevento 6 3 1 2 10
9 Verona 6 2 1 3 7
10 Padova 6 2 1 3 7
11 Cesena 6 1 4 1 7
12 Arezzo 6 2 1 3 7
13 Empoli 6 2 0 4 6
14 Virtus Entella 6 1 3 2 6
15 Cremonese 6 1 3 2 6
16 Vicenza Virtus 6 1 2 3 5
17 Carrarese 6 1 1 4 4
18 Sampdoria 6 1 1 4 4
19 Catanzaro 6 1 0 5 3
20 Juve Stabia 6 1 3 2 2
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Palermo 6 14 7 +7 16
2 Mantova 6 13 6 +7 14
3 Verona 6 12 10 +2 7
4 Modena 6 11 6 +5 13
5 Avellino 6 11 7 +4 10
6 Pisa 6 11 8 +3 10
7 Sudtirol 6 9 3 +6 12
8 Benevento 6 8 5 +3 10
9 Virtus Entella 6 8 7 +1 6
10 Ascoli 6 7 4 +3 11
11 Cesena 6 7 8 -1 7
12 Vicenza Virtus 6 7 13 -6 5
13 Empoli 6 6 10 -4 6
14 Catanzaro 6 6 12 -6 3
15 Arezzo 6 6 13 -7 7
16 Sampdoria 6 6 13 -7 4
17 Cremonese 6 5 7 -2 6
18 Padova 6 5 8 -3 7
19 Juve Stabia 6 5 8 -3 2
20 Carrarese 6 4 6 -2 4
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Palermo 6 10.0 6.2 +3.8 16
2 Pisa 6 6.4 2.8 +3.6 10
3 Benevento 6 6.3 2.8 +3.5 10
4 Verona 6 8.8 5.7 +3.1 7
5 Mantova 6 7.5 5.5 +2.0 14
6 Carrarese 6 6.1 4.5 +1.6 4
7 Modena 6 6.6 5.1 +1.5 13
8 Virtus Entella 6 4.2 3.2 +1.0 6
9 Arezzo 6 3.6 2.9 +0.7 7
10 Cesena 6 3.5 3.7 -0.2 7
11 Avellino 6 4.8 5.1 -0.3 10
12 Juve Stabia 6 3.1 3.7 -0.6 2
13 Sudtirol 6 2.7 3.5 -0.8 12
14 Sampdoria 6 2.9 4.6 -1.7 4
15 Ascoli 6 5.1 6.9 -1.8 11
16 Cremonese 6 0.8 2.8 -2.0 6
17 Vicenza Virtus 6 4.8 7.9 -3.1 5
18 Padova 6 3.5 6.7 -3.2 7
19 Catanzaro 6 5.0 8.5 -3.5 3
20 Empoli 6 4.3 8.0 -3.7 6