The model missed the final outcome (AD Cofutpa win 3–1).
The model had projected Santa Cruz FC at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Santa Cruz FC AD Cofutpa ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Cofutpa | 32.9% | 39.7% | -6.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.0% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Santa Cruz FC | 37.5% | 32.3% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates AD Cofutpa's win probability at 39.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah AD Cofutpa win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on AD Cofutpa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Santa Cruz FC by 6.8 percentage points (44.4% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AD Cofutpa 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Santa Cruz FC 37.6%
- xG · AD Cofutpa 1.25 — Santa Cruz FC 1.35
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AD Cofutpa 2.24 · Draw 3.18 · Santa Cruz FC 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · AD Cofutpa 39.7% · Draw 28.0% · Santa Cruz FC 32.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · AD Cofutpa 2.24 · Draw 3.18 · Santa Cruz FC 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · AD Cofutpa 39.7% · Draw 28.0% · Santa Cruz FC 32.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result AD Cofutpa win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
22/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.24
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
AD Cofutpa win · AD Cofutpa 3–1 Santa Cruz FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Santa Cruz FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Santa Cruz FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"odd": 2.75
}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.09,
"market_odds": 2.75,
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"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": 1.2,
"value_pct": 3.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
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{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "AD Cofutpa or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "AD Cofutpa or Santa Cruz FC",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Santa Cruz FC",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "AD Cofutpa or Santa Cruz FC",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Santa Cruz FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Santa Cruz FC Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 2.75
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Santa Cruz FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.34,
"draw": 27.96,
"home": 39.7
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 20:59:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 20:30:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "AD Cofutpa",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.7,
"gap_pp": -6.83,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.96,
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"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.34,
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"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.69,
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"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.31,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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{
"closing": 3.18,
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{
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{
"closing": 1.76,
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.125,
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0102,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4692,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5196
},
"p_final": 0.4794,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0049,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.07,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.07,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0878,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10229.02,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.006,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.427,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.427,
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},
"p_final": 0.4331,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0263,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0732,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2371,
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"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.573,
"model_prob": 0.545,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0511,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0511,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Santa Cruz FC",
"sort_key": 1787.225,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -1.3%",
"alert_team": "AD Cofutpa",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.85,
"hero_label": "AD Cofutpa",
"market_prob_pct": 32.3,
"market_team": "AD Cofutpa",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Santa Cruz FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santa Cruz FC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santa Cruz FC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santa Cruz FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0511,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.85,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -1.3%",
"steam_team": "AD Cofutpa",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santa Cruz FC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santa Cruz FC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santa Cruz FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0511,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AD Cofutpa 1.25 xG vs Santa Cruz FC 1.35 \u2192 Santa Cruz FC 37.5%",
"Market: AD Cofutpa ~32.3% implied",
"Market Steam: AD Cofutpa \u2193 -1.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Santa Cruz FC, but sharp money moved toward AD Cofutpa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "AD Cofutpa",
"market_prob": 39.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.65,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.2,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Santa Cruz FC",
"market_prob": 32.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.91,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.91,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.99,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.99,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "AD Cofutpa",
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "AD Cofutpa"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates AD Cofutpa\u0027s win probability at 39.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Santa Cruz FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: AD Cofutpa 1.25 xG vs Santa Cruz FC 1.35 \u2192 Santa Cruz FC 37.5%",
"Market: AD Cofutpa ~32.3% implied",
"Market Steam: AD Cofutpa \u2193 -1.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Santa Cruz FC, but sharp money moved toward AD Cofutpa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.85,
"hero_label": "AD Cofutpa",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "AD Cofutpa odds shortened \u2193 -1.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on AD Cofutpa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AD Cofutpa.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on AD Cofutpa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AD Cofutpa."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices AD Cofutpa above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on AD Cofutpa (\u2193 -1.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on AD Cofutpa."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "AD Cofutpa",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices AD Cofutpa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.85,
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "AD Cofutpa",
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.65,
"edge_pp": 1.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.96,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.2,
"edge_pp": 5.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santa Cruz FC",
"market_prob_pct": 32.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on AD Cofutpa.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers AD Cofutpa (32.3%).",
"AD Cofutpa has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -1.3%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Santa Cruz FC, Market \u2192 AD Cofutpa, Recent sharp money \u2192 AD Cofutpa.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.64,
"closing_odds": 2.24,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.64,
"entry_odds": 2.24,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 1.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Net move flat on AD Cofutpa (1.3%), but intraday swing reached 5.9% \u2014 price repriced then reverted.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.31",
"2.24"
],
"display": "2.65 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "AD Cofutpa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.24,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,3.9",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.24"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "AD Cofutpa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u2139\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.3%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Market moved toward AD Cofutpa while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "AD Cofutpa",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Low-intensity market activity",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.3%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "AD Cofutpa",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "AD Cofutpa",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "santa-cruz-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Santa Cruz FC",
"away_team_id": 26550,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26550.webp",
"away_team_name": "Santa Cruz FC",
"away_team_public_id": "3ZZy0Rad9XChB0",
"away_team_slug": "santa-cruz-fc",
"country_code": "CR",
"country_display_name": "Costa-Rica",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cr.svg",
"country_id": 37,
"country_name": "Costa-Rica",
"fixture_id": 1601445,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Costa-Rica",
"home_team_display_name": "AD Cofutpa",
"home_team_id": 2055,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2055.webp",
"home_team_name": "AD Cofutpa",
"home_team_public_id": "1qRfWYJ0DgL5Kk",
"home_team_slug": "ad-cofutpa",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ad-cofutpa",
"league_country": "Costa-Rica",
"league_country_display": "Costa-Rica",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Ascenso Costa Rica",
"league_id": 163,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/163.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Ascenso Costa Rica",
"league_public_id": "2Nk1UOPRWlgKbk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 21:00:00",
"public_id": "0xvk5PZxcRxBhj",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4147,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3234,
"draw": 0.2796,
"home": 0.397
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3451
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2928,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.2796,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3234,
"draw": 0.2796,
"home": 0.397
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2843
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4039,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1725,
"implied_prob": 0.397,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3234,
"draw": 0.2796,
"home": 0.397
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3694
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": 0.0331,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.0599,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.1177,
"ev": -0.2637,
"implied_prob": 0.4464,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2156,
"alpha_yes": 0.2371,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0299,
"edge_yes": -0.0299,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0732,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0967,
"implied_no": 0.4251,
"implied_yes": 0.5749,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.427,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4331
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2371,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.573,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5663
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4331,
"p_final_yes": 0.5663,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2294,
"alpha_under": 0.2085,
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.715,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.94,
"edge_over": -0.0491,
"edge_under": 0.0491,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1089,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.07,
"implied_over": 0.5311,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5308,
"implied_under": 0.4689,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4692,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5196
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4794
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5196,
"p_final_under": 0.4794,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Santa Cruz FC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Santa Cruz FC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Santa Cruz FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward AD Cofutpa, but the model still strongly favours Santa Cruz FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0511,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Santa Cruz FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.006,
"market_prob": 0.427,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2156,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0732,
"implied_prob": 0.427,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4331
},
"p_final": 0.4331,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0732,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2371,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.573,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5663
}
},
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4251,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.4692,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.5308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5196
},
"p_final": 0.4794,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.07,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2085,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4794
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0491,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4689,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1601445,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Santa Cruz FC",
"home": "AD Cofutpa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4689,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0511,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3234,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36363636363636365,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1601445,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T20:59:14.441983+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga de Ascenso Costa Rica — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Santa Ana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Cariari Pococí | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | CS Uruguay | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Santa Ana | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Cariari Pococí | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 11 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | CS Uruguay | 8 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 7 |
