AI correctly predicted the Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 39.0% | 41.5% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.2% | +1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Cariari Pococí | 31.5% | 30.2% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Cariari Pococí 31.5%
- xG · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.38 — Cariari Pococí 1.22
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2.33 · Draw 3.10 · Cariari Pococí 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 38.2% · Draw 28.7% · Cariari Pococí 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2.17 · Draw 3.19 · Cariari Pococí 2.98
- Implied 1X2 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 41.5% · Draw 28.2% · Cariari Pococí 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
87/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.17
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC win · Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1–0 Cariari Pococí
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.123,
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"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0825,
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"text": "-8.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"sort_key": 1779.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"alert_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.55,
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"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"market_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.55,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"steam_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.38 xG vs Cariari Pococ\u00ed 1.22 \u2192 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 39.0%",
"Market: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ~41.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds \u2191 +4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.55,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"market_prob": 41.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.25,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Cariari Pococ\u00ed",
"market_prob": 30.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.02,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.02,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.0,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"market_prob_pct": 41.52,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1.38 xG vs Cariari Pococ\u00ed 1.22 \u2192 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 39.0%",
"Market: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ~41.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds \u2191 +4.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.55,
"hero_label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds lengthened \u2191 +4.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (\u2191 +4.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.55,
"edge_pp": -2.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"market_prob_pct": 41.52,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.3,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.25,
"edge_pp": 1.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cariari Pococ\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 30.23,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (41.5%).",
"Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.7%, 6/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, Market \u2192 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, while Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.08,
"closing_odds": 2.17,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.08,
"entry_odds": 2.17,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (4.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.33",
"2.24",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.33 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 50m",
"pick_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.17,
2.33,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,16.0 37.3,0.0 56.0,8.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/8 sportsbooks on Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Market moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cariari-pococi",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cariari Pococ\u00ed",
"away_team_id": 2052,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2052.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cariari Pococ\u00ed",
"away_team_public_id": "5ykTb31btsXhcp",
"away_team_slug": "cariari-pococi",
"country_code": "CR",
"country_display_name": "Costa-Rica",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cr.svg",
"country_id": 37,
"country_name": "Costa-Rica",
"fixture_id": 1601441,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Costa-Rica",
"home_team_display_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"home_team_id": 26343,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26343.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"home_team_public_id": "48x3Vy5yQwqNOS",
"home_team_slug": "pitbulls-santa-barbara-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "pitbulls-santa-barbara-fc",
"league_country": "Costa-Rica",
"league_country_display": "Costa-Rica",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Ascenso Costa Rica",
"league_id": 163,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/163.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Ascenso Costa Rica",
"league_public_id": "2Nk1UOPRWlgKbk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 01:00:00",
"public_id": "20QWwluzvft6nl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4415,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0825,
"implied_prob": 0.3023,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3023,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.4152
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3079
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2942,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.2824,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3023,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.4152
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2863
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.123,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3023,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.4152
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4042
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": -0.0207,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": -0.0712,
"ev": -0.1544,
"implied_prob": 0.4608,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2154,
"alpha_yes": 0.237,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.03,
"edge_yes": -0.03,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0488,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0827,
"ev_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1062,
"implied_no": 0.426,
"implied_yes": 0.574,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.4276,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4337
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.5724,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5657
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4337,
"p_final_yes": 0.5657,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2304,
"alpha_under": 0.2095,
"best_over_odd": 1.78,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.725,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.93,
"edge_over": -0.0502,
"edge_under": 0.0502,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.142,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1074,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0705,
"implied_over": 0.5322,
"implied_over_mf": 0.528,
"implied_under": 0.4678,
"implied_under_mf": 0.472,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1074,
"implied_prob": 0.528,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5174
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2095,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.472,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4816
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5174,
"p_final_under": 0.4816,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC, but the model still strongly favours Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.123,
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0061,
"market_prob": 0.4276,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.4276,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4337
},
"p_final": 0.4337,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0827,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.5724,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5657
}
},
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.426,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2095,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0096,
"market_prob": 0.472,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2304,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1074,
"implied_prob": 0.528,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5174
},
"p_final": 0.4816,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0705,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2095,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0705,
"implied_prob": 0.472,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4816
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0502,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4678,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1601441,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cariari Pococ\u00ed",
"home": "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4678,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4152,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4608294930875576,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1544,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1601441,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T00:59:06.504130+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga de Ascenso Costa Rica — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Santa Ana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococí | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | CS Uruguay | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 16 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | AD Carmelita | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Quepos Cambute | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | ADR Jicaral | 8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 |
| 6 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Santa Ana | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz FC | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Cariari Pococí | 8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | Guadalupe FC | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 11 | Municipal Grecia | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | AD Sarchí | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | CS Uruguay | 9 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
