The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Negeri Sembilan FC at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Negeri Sembilan FC Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negeri Sembilan FC | 35.2% | 48.8% | -13.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Imigresen | 35.2% | 26.2% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Negeri Sembilan FC's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Negeri Sembilan FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Negeri Sembilan FC; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Negeri Sembilan FC by 13.6 percentage points (48.8% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 08:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Negeri Sembilan FC 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Imigresen 35.2%
- xG · Negeri Sembilan FC 1.30 — Imigresen 1.30
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Negeri Sembilan FC 1.85 · Draw 3.62 · Imigresen 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Negeri Sembilan FC 48.8% · Draw 24.9% · Imigresen 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 08:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Negeri Sembilan FC 1.85 · Draw 3.62 · Imigresen 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Negeri Sembilan FC 48.8% · Draw 24.9% · Imigresen 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 08:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Super Malaysia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Kuching FA | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Selangor FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | Sabah FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | DPMM FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Terengganu FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Penang FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Melaka United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Imigresen | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 5 | 25 | 0 | +25 | 15 |
| 2 | Kuching FA | 5 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 12 |
| 3 | Selangor FC | 4 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
| 4 | Sabah FC | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Negeri Sembilan FC | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Melaka United | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 7 | Terengganu FC | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Imigresen | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2 |
| 10 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 5 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 0 |
| 11 | DPMM FC | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Penang FC | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
