AI correctly predicted the Dodoma Jiji win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Dodoma Jiji Dodoma Jiji ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodoma Jiji | 35.6% | 44.6% | -9.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.4% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Namungo | 34.7% | 22.9% | +11.8 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Namungo's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.9%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Dodoma Jiji win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Namungo.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dodoma Jiji more conservatively (23.9% vs model 35.6%, 11.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dodoma Jiji win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Namungo 34.7%
- xG · Dodoma Jiji 1.31 — Namungo 1.29
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dodoma Jiji 1.99 · Draw 2.74 · Namungo 3.87
- Implied 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 44.6% · Draw 32.4% · Namungo 22.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dodoma Jiji 1.99 · Draw 2.74 · Namungo 3.87
- Implied 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 44.6% · Draw 32.4% · Namungo 22.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dodoma Jiji win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
41/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.87
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Dodoma Jiji win · Dodoma Jiji 1–0 Namungo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2051,
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},
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},
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}
],
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"betting_signal": {
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"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.8,
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"market_prob_pct": 44.6,
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"show": true,
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"status_label": "Use caution",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"label": "Agree",
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},
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 11.8,
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dodoma Jiji at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dodoma Jiji as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dodoma Jiji",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Dodoma Jiji \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.79 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.79 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dodoma Jiji).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2051,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.75,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.75,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Dodoma Jiji",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dodoma Jiji)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dodoma Jiji)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.344,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dodoma Jiji at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dodoma Jiji as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dodoma Jiji",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Dodoma Jiji \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.79 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.79 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dodoma Jiji).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2051,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dodoma Jiji 1.31 xG vs Namungo 1.29 \u2192 Dodoma Jiji 35.6%",
"Market: Dodoma Jiji ~44.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Dodoma Jiji +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dodoma Jiji with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Dodoma Jiji",
"market_prob": 44.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.77,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.75,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Namungo",
"market_prob": 22.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.6,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.6,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Namungo",
"market_prob_pct": 22.95,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Dodoma Jiji"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Namungo\u0027s win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.9%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.75,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Dodoma Jiji",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Dodoma Jiji \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dodoma Jiji 1.31 xG vs Namungo 1.29 \u2192 Dodoma Jiji 35.6%",
"Market: Dodoma Jiji ~44.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Dodoma Jiji +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Dodoma Jiji with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.75,
"hero_label": "Namungo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Dodoma Jiji has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Namungo.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Dodoma Jiji.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Namungo.",
"However, Dodoma Jiji has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Dodoma Jiji."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Namungo more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Dodoma Jiji has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Dodoma Jiji."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.75,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Namungo",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.8,
"lead": "The model rates Namungo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.99,
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dodoma Jiji",
"market_prob_pct": 44.63,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.77,
"edge_pp": -2.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.42,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.75,
"edge_pp": 11.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Namungo",
"market_prob_pct": 22.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Dodoma Jiji.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Dodoma Jiji (44.6%).",
"Dodoma Jiji \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.84,
"closing_odds": 3.87,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.84,
"entry_odds": 3.87,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Dodoma Jiji",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Dodoma Jiji",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "namungo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Namungo",
"away_team_id": 12197,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12197.webp",
"away_team_name": "Namungo",
"away_team_public_id": "1ZhIKvryRUb1tK",
"away_team_slug": "namungo",
"country_code": "TZ",
"country_display_name": "Tanzania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tz.svg",
"country_id": 152,
"country_name": "Tanzania",
"fixture_id": 1600775,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Tanzania",
"home_team_display_name": "Dodoma Jiji",
"home_team_id": 14345,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14345.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dodoma Jiji",
"home_team_public_id": "5vyfaLCB5ASz0B",
"home_team_slug": "dodoma-jiji",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dodoma-jiji",
"league_country": "Tanzania",
"league_country_display": "Tanzania",
"league_display_name": "Ligi Kuu Bara",
"league_id": 567,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/567.webp",
"league_name": "Ligi Kuu Bara",
"league_public_id": "3GDHnJVQDu3Mfa",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 16:00:00",
"public_id": "3qDa4zaI6vgGia",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Jamhuri Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.247,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0008,
"implied_prob": 0.2295,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2295,
"draw": 0.3242,
"home": 0.4463
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.2586
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4315,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.1442,
"implied_prob": 0.3242,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2295,
"draw": 0.3242,
"home": 0.4463
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3123
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5186,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0469,
"ev": -0.2051,
"implied_prob": 0.4463,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2295,
"draw": 0.3242,
"home": 0.4463
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3994
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0889,
"ev": 0.344,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.0682,
"ev": -0.1868,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.1466,
"ev": -0.2917,
"implied_prob": 0.5025,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1431,
"alpha_yes": 0.1301,
"best_no_odd": 1.61,
"best_yes_odd": 2.13,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.116,
"edge_yes": 0.116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2674,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1129,
"ev_yes": 0.1608,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0542,
"implied_no": 0.571,
"implied_yes": 0.429,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5544
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1301,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4441
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5544,
"p_final_yes": 0.4441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1479,
"alpha_under": 0.2034,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.42,
"edge_over": 0.1217,
"edge_under": -0.1217,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0519,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.13,
"implied_over": 0.3603,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3632,
"implied_under": 0.6397,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6368,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1479,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3807
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6127
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3807,
"p_final_under": 0.6127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.344,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2628,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dodoma Jiji)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2628,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.344,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dodoma Jiji at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Dodoma Jiji as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Dodoma Jiji",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Dodoma Jiji \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.79 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.79 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Dodoma Jiji).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2051,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0469,
"ev": -0.2051,
"implied_prob": 0.4463,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Dodoma Jiji"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1301,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.429,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5544
},
"p_final": 0.4441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0542,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1301,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4441
}
},
"edge": 0.116,
"ev": 0.1608,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1479,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0176,
"market_prob": 0.3632,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1479,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0519,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3807
},
"p_final": 0.3807,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0519,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.13,
"implied_prob": 0.6368,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6127
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1217,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3603,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1600775,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2628,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1608,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1608,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Namungo",
"home": "Dodoma Jiji"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088669,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3603,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2051,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1600775,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T16:00:51.136705+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ligi Kuu Bara — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba SC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Singida Fountain Gate | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Polisi Tanzania | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Geita Gold | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Coastal Union FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Kitayosce | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Namungo | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Singida Big Stars | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Pamba Jiji | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Singida Fountain Gate | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Simba SC | 6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Azam FC | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Polisi Tanzania | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Geita Gold | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Mbeya City | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Mashujaa | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Kitayosce | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Coastal Union FC | 6 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Namungo | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Pamba Jiji | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 |
| 16 | Singida Big Stars | 6 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 4 |
