The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Orlando Pirates at 48.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Orlando Pirates Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazulu | 18.6% | 13.2% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 33.3% | 25.1% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Orlando Pirates | 48.1% | 61.6% | -13.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Orlando Pirates's win probability at 61.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.1%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Orlando Pirates than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.76, 2 goals)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Orlando Pirates; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Orlando Pirates by 13.5 percentage points (61.6% vs model 48.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Amazulu 18.6% · Draw 33.4% · Orlando Pirates 48.1%
- xG · Amazulu 0.65 — Orlando Pirates 1.11
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Amazulu 7.03 · Draw 3.70 · Orlando Pirates 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Amazulu 13.2% · Draw 25.1% · Orlando Pirates 61.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Amazulu 7.03 · Draw 3.70 · Orlando Pirates 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Amazulu 13.2% · Draw 25.1% · Orlando Pirates 61.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Amazulu & Orlando Pirates!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Bola Sepak — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Milford FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Chippa United | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Durban City | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Polokwane City | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Kruger United | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Richards Bay | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Siwelele | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 20 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 7 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 19 |
| 3 | Kaizer Chiefs | 7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Amazulu | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Milford FC | 8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | Richards Bay | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 |
| 7 | Stellenbosch | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Polokwane City | 7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Sekhukhune United | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | TS Galaxy | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Siwelele | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 12 | Marumo Gallants | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 13 | Durban City | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Chippa United | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Golden Arrows | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Kruger United | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 8 | 13.8 | 4.3 | +9.5 | 20 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 7 | 5.7 | 2.6 | +3.1 | 19 |
| 3 | Durban City | 7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | +2.6 | 7 |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs | 7 | 4.9 | 3.0 | +1.9 | 13 |
| 5 | Sekhukhune United | 7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | +0.6 | 11 |
| 6 | Golden Arrows | 7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | +0.1 | 8 |
| 7 | Polokwane City | 7 | 4.0 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 7 |
| 8 | Amazulu | 7 | 4.7 | 5.8 | -1.1 | 16 |
| 9 | Stellenbosch | 7 | 3.4 | 4.5 | -1.1 | 9 |
| 10 | Kruger United | 7 | 2.4 | 3.7 | -1.3 | 4 |
| 11 | Chippa United | 7 | 1.7 | 3.4 | -1.7 | 8 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 7 | 5.0 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 6 |
| 13 | Milford FC | 8 | 4.0 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 12 |
| 14 | Marumo Gallants | 7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | -2.3 | 2 |
| 15 | Siwelele | 7 | 4.8 | 7.7 | -2.9 | 3 |
| 16 | Richards Bay | 7 | 3.4 | 7.0 | -3.6 | 3 |
