The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Academico Viseu U23 at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Academico Viseu U23 Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP U23 | 29.2% | 38.9% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.3% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Academico Viseu U23 | 41.4% | 32.9% | +8.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Sporting CP U23's win probability at 38.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Academico Viseu U23 by 9.6 percentage points (51.0% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sporting CP U23 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Academico Viseu U23 41.4%
- xG · Sporting CP U23 1.17 — Academico Viseu U23 1.43
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sporting CP U23 2.36 · Draw 3.24 · Academico Viseu U23 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Sporting CP U23 38.9% · Draw 28.3% · Academico Viseu U23 32.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sporting CP U23 2.36 · Draw 3.24 · Academico Viseu U23 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Sporting CP U23 38.9% · Draw 28.3% · Academico Viseu U23 32.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
18/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.36
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sporting CP U23 2–2 Academico Viseu U23
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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}
},
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"home_played": 5,
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"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
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"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.43,
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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"pick_prob": 70.8
},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"odds": 2.79
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.86,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 13:59:10",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 13:29:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sporting CP U23",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "0-2",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.17,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "-10.8%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
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"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.01,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 1.0,
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Academico Viseu U23",
"sort_key": 5208.0,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0054,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4341,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4395
},
"p_final": 0.4395,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0338,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2383,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0059,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5599
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0098,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.0,
"text": "+1.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1073,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.7,
"text": "-10.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0098,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 5207.84,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"alert_team": "Sporting CP U23",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.6,
"hero_label": "Sporting CP U23",
"market_prob_pct": 32.9,
"market_team": "Sporting CP U23",
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_team": "Academico Viseu U23",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1542,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Academico Viseu U23 at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Academico Viseu U23 as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Academico Viseu U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Academico Viseu U23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1598690 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.6,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.43,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.17,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.17 \u00b7 Away xG 1.43 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"steam_team": "Sporting CP U23",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1542,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Academico Viseu U23 at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Academico Viseu U23 as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Academico Viseu U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Academico Viseu U23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1598690 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sporting CP U23 1.17 xG vs Academico Viseu U23 1.43 \u2192 Academico Viseu U23 41.4%",
"Market: Sporting CP U23 ~32.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sporting CP U23 \u2193 -5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Academico Viseu U23, but sharp money moved toward Sporting CP U23.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.6,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Sporting CP U23",
"market_prob": 38.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.54,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Academico Viseu U23",
"market_prob": 32.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.61,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.61,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sporting CP U23",
"market_prob_pct": 38.85,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sporting CP U23"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sporting CP U23\u0027s win probability at 38.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Academico Viseu U23",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.5,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sporting CP U23 1.17 xG vs Academico Viseu U23 1.43 \u2192 Academico Viseu U23 41.4%",
"Market: Sporting CP U23 ~32.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Sporting CP U23 \u2193 -5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Academico Viseu U23, but sharp money moved toward Sporting CP U23.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.6,
"hero_label": "Sporting CP U23",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sporting CP U23 odds shortened \u2193 -5.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sporting CP U23.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sporting CP U23."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sporting CP U23 above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Sporting CP U23 (\u2193 -5.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Sporting CP U23."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sporting CP U23",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sporting CP U23 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.6,
"edge_pp": -9.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sporting CP U23",
"market_prob_pct": 38.85,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.06,
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.54,
"edge_pp": 8.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Academico Viseu U23",
"market_prob_pct": 32.86,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Sporting CP U23.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sporting CP U23 (32.9%).",
"Sporting CP U23 has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -5.9%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Academico Viseu U23, Market \u2192 Sporting CP U23, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sporting CP U23.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.37,
"closing_odds": 2.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.37,
"entry_odds": 2.36,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Sporting CP U23 (5.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.55",
"2.46",
"2.36"
],
"display": "2.80 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 55m",
"pick_team": "Sporting CP U23",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
2.36,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,14.2",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.36"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on Sporting CP U23",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sporting CP U23",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Market moved toward Sporting CP U23 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sporting CP U23",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Sporting CP U23",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Sporting CP U23",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "academico-viseu-u23",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Academico Viseu U23",
"away_team_id": 21718,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21718.webp",
"away_team_name": "Academico Viseu U23",
"away_team_public_id": "1yLZdxiJWJoRGk",
"away_team_slug": "academico-viseu-u23",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1598690,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Sporting CP U23",
"home_team_id": 15470,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15470.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sporting CP U23",
"home_team_public_id": "1WwjXS9T1ag0me",
"home_team_slug": "sporting-cp-u23",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sporting-cp-u23",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Liga Revela\u00e7\u00e3o U23",
"league_id": 701,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/701.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Revela\u00e7\u00e3o U23",
"league_public_id": "1aNelfakQBOxux",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1XRnvwFyXbepfH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3926,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3286,
"draw": 0.283,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.362
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2952,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0031,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.283,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3286,
"draw": 0.283,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2861
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3854,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0369,
"ev": -0.1703,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3286,
"draw": 0.283,
"home": 0.3885
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.3516
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0553,
"ev": 0.1542,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.4137
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.24,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.3086,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.131,
"ev": -0.3092,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.2927
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2166,
"alpha_yes": 0.2383,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0261,
"edge_yes": -0.0261,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0098,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0748,
"ev_yes": -0.1073,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0957,
"implied_no": 0.4329,
"implied_yes": 0.5671,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4395
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2383,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0059,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5599
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4395,
"p_final_yes": 0.5599,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2345,
"alpha_under": 0.2132,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.785,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": -0.0364,
"edge_under": 0.0364,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1083,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0919,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0631,
"implied_over": 0.5184,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5169,
"implied_under": 0.4816,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4831,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2345,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.5169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5087
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4905
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5087,
"p_final_under": 0.4905,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1542,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1542,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Academico Viseu U23 at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Academico Viseu U23 as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Academico Viseu U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Academico Viseu U23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1598690 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sporting CP U23, but the model still strongly favours Academico Viseu U23.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.01,
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Academico Viseu U23"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0054,
"market_prob": 0.4341,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2166,
"best_odd": 2.105,
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4395
},
"p_final": 0.4395,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2383,
"best_odd": 1.615,
"edge": -0.0059,
"ev": -0.0957,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5599
}
},
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": 0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.4329,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.4831,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2345,
"best_odd": 1.785,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.5169,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5087
},
"p_final": 0.4905,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0631,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0631,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4905
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0364,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4816,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1598690,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4137,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2927
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Academico Viseu U23",
"home": "Sporting CP U23"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4816,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.01,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3286,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1542,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1598690,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T13:59:11.768043+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Sporting CP U23 & Academico Viseu U23!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Revelação U23 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP U23 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu U23 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Farense U23 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Estoril U23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga U23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Rio Ave U23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | União Leiria U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Santa Clara U23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Moreirense U23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Torreense U23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Vizela U23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Leixões U23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente U23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Famalicão U23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Penafiel U23 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 16 | Felgueiras U23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Benfica U23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Estrela U23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 19 | Marítimo Bawah 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 20 | Portimonense U23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP U23 | 6 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu U23 | 6 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 | Estoril U23 | 5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 | Farense U23 | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 5 | Famalicão U23 | 6 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 5 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U23 | 6 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Leixões U23 | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Penafiel U23 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente U23 | 6 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Moreirense U23 | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Torreense U23 | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | União Leiria U23 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Rio Ave U23 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras U23 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Vizela U23 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Marítimo Bawah 23 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Benfica U23 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Portimonense U23 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 19 | Estrela U23 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 20 | Santa Clara U23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
