AI correctly predicted the Estrela U23 win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela U23 | 35.2% | 41.1% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| União Leiria U23 | 35.2% | 32.5% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Estrela U23's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Estrela U23 win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Estrela U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Estrela U23 higher (41.1% vs model 35.2%, 5.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Estrela U23 win 2–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Estrela U23 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · União Leiria U23 35.2%
- xG · Estrela U23 1.30 — União Leiria U23 1.30
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Estrela U23 2.23 · Draw 3.47 · União Leiria U23 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · Estrela U23 41.1% · Draw 26.4% · União Leiria U23 32.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Estrela U23 2.23 · Draw 3.47 · União Leiria U23 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · Estrela U23 41.1% · Draw 26.4% · União Leiria U23 32.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Estrela U23 win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
70/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.23
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Estrela U23 win · Estrela U23 2–0 União Leiria U23
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1377,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.8,
"text": "-13.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0509,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Estrela U23",
"sort_key": 1787.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +1.5%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.92,
"hero_label": "Estrela U23",
"market_prob_pct": 41.1,
"market_team": "Estrela U23",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Estrela U23",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estrela U23)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estrela U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0287,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estrela U23 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estrela U23 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estrela U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estrela U23).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1377,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.92,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.92,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +1.5%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estrela U23)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estrela U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0287,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estrela U23 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estrela U23 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estrela U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estrela U23).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1377,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Estrela U23 1.30 xG vs Uni\u00e3o Leiria U23 1.30 \u2192 Estrela U23 35.2%",
"Market: Estrela U23 ~41.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +1.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Estrela U23 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.92,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Estrela U23",
"market_prob": 41.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.24,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.67,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Uni\u00e3o Leiria U23",
"market_prob": 32.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.54,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.54,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.05,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.05,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Estrela U23",
"market_prob_pct": 41.09,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Estrela U23\u0027s win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.92,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Estrela U23",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Estrela U23 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 82,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Estrela U23 1.30 xG vs Uni\u00e3o Leiria U23 1.30 \u2192 Estrela U23 35.2%",
"Market: Estrela U23 ~41.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +1.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Estrela U23 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.92,
"hero_label": "Estrela U23",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +1.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Estrela U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Estrela U23. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Estrela U23 above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Estrela U23",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Estrela U23 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.92,
"edge_pp": -5.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Estrela U23",
"market_prob_pct": 41.09,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.24,
"edge_pp": 3.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.67,
"edge_pp": 2.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Uni\u00e3o Leiria U23",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Estrela U23 (41.1%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +1.5%, 3/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Estrela U23 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.84,
"closing_odds": 2.23,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.84,
"entry_odds": 2.23,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "3/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 1.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.38 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.30) \u2014 net 1.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.47",
"3.36",
"3.25"
],
"display": "3.38 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
3.47,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.9",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.47"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.5%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/12",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.5%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "uniao-leiria-u23",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Uni\u00e3o Leiria U23",
"away_team_id": 26257,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26257.webp",
"away_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o Leiria U23",
"away_team_public_id": "3n5rDw8U7zCZtT",
"away_team_slug": "uniao-leiria-u23",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1598677,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Estrela U23",
"home_team_id": 19824,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19824.webp",
"home_team_name": "Estrela U23",
"home_team_public_id": "5FI9fXmLz57IEN",
"home_team_slug": "estrela-u23",
"ht.home_team_slug": "estrela-u23",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Liga Revela\u00e7\u00e3o U23",
"league_id": 701,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/701.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Revela\u00e7\u00e3o U23",
"league_public_id": "1aNelfakQBOxux",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0oVDcH31Ssra13",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4319,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.325,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.325,
"draw": 0.2641,
"home": 0.4109
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3365
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2854,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.2641,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.325,
"draw": 0.2641,
"home": 0.4109
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2733
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4101,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.325,
"draw": 0.2641,
"home": 0.4109
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3867
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": 0.0287,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.0967,
"ev": -0.2155,
"implied_prob": 0.4484,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.23,
"alpha_yes": 0.253,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0205,
"edge_yes": 0.0205,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.09,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"ev_yes": 0.0083,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.08,
"implied_no": 0.4755,
"implied_yes": 0.5245,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.23,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.4727,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4686
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.253,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.5273,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5318
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4686,
"p_final_yes": 0.5318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2329,
"alpha_under": 0.2562,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.965,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.76,
"edge_over": 0.0154,
"edge_under": -0.0154,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0672,
"ev_under": -0.0624,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0759,
"implied_over": 0.4666,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4725,
"implied_under": 0.5334,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5275,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"best_odd": 1.965,
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.4725,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4747
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2562,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0024,
"ev": -0.0759,
"implied_prob": 0.5275,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5251
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4747,
"p_final_under": 0.5251,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0287,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estrela U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0287,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 82,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estrela U23 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Estrela U23 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Estrela U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estrela U23).",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1377,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0218,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4666,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1377,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Estrela U23"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0045,
"market_prob": 0.5273,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.4727,
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"p_final": 0.4686
},
"p_final": 0.5318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.08,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0022,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4747,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0672,
"under": {
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},
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},
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}
},
"match_id": 1598677,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0218,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Uni\u00e3o Leiria U23",
"home": "Estrela U23"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1377,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1598677,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T15:59:22.661493+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Revelação U23 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP U23 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu U23 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Farense U23 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Estoril U23 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga U23 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Vizela U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Benfica U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Rio Ave U23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente U23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Famalicão U23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Santa Clara U23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Moreirense U23 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Felgueiras U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | União Leiria U23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Leixões U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 16 | Torreense U23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Penafiel U23 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 18 | Estrela U23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 19 | Portimonense U23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 20 | Marítimo Bawah 23 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP U23 | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu U23 | 7 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Estoril U23 | 6 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Famalicão U23 | 7 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 8 |
| 5 | Leixões U23 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U23 | 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Farense U23 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Benfica U23 | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Moreirense U23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente U23 | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Penafiel U23 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Vizela U23 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Felgueiras U23 | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 14 | Torreense U23 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Rio Ave U23 | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 | União Leiria U23 | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Estrela U23 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Marítimo Bawah 23 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 19 | Portimonense U23 | 7 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 20 | Santa Clara U23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
