AI correctly predicted the Bangkok United win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Bangkok United Bangkok United ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok United | 46.3% | 47.0% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 31.2% | 30.0% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Bangkok Glass | 22.5% | 23.0% | -0.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Bangkok United win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Bangkok United attacking xG significantly stronger (1.35 vs 0.87)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bangkok United win 3–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bangkok United 46.3% · Draw 31.2% · Bangkok Glass 22.5%
- xG · Bangkok United 1.35 — Bangkok Glass 0.87
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bangkok United 2.00 · Draw 3.13 · Bangkok Glass 4.08
- Implied 1X2 · Bangkok United 47.0% · Draw 30.0% · Bangkok Glass 23.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bangkok United 2.00 · Draw 3.13 · Bangkok Glass 4.08
- Implied 1X2 · Bangkok United 47.0% · Draw 30.0% · Bangkok Glass 23.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bangkok United win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
94/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bangkok United win · Bangkok United 3–2 Bangkok Glass
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.0%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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},
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"decision_strength": 8.3,
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"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bangkok United at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bangkok United as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bangkok United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"key": "extreme_gap",
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"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
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"ok": true,
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},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
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},
{
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"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
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}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bangkok United).",
"Decision strength: 8.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0667,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4697,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4629,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0742,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.2,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.2,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.87,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 0.87 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"steam_team": "Bangkok Glass",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bangkok United).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bangkok United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bangkok United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.234,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.234,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bangkok United at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bangkok United as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bangkok United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bangkok United).",
"Decision strength: 8.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0667,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4697,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4629,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0742,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bangkok United 1.35 xG vs Bangkok Glass 0.87 \u2192 Bangkok United 46.3%",
"Market: Bangkok United ~47.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Bangkok Glass odds \u2191 +3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Bangkok United projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.67,
"fair_prob": 46.3,
"label": "Bangkok United",
"market_prob": 46.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"fair_prob": 31.21,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.53,
"fair_prob": 22.49,
"label": "Bangkok Glass",
"market_prob": 23.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.19,
"fair_prob": 38.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.19,
"fair_prob": 61.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.08,
"fair_prob": 44.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.08,
"fair_prob": 55.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.21,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.01,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Bangkok Glass"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.2,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Bangkok United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.7,
"model_prob_pct": 46.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Bangkok United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 96,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bangkok United 1.35 xG vs Bangkok Glass 0.87 \u2192 Bangkok United 46.3%",
"Market: Bangkok United ~47.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Bangkok Glass odds \u2191 +3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Bangkok United projects stronger on expected goals (+0.48 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.2,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Bangkok Glass odds lengthened \u2191 +3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bangkok Glass has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Bangkok Glass \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Bangkok Glass has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Bangkok Glass \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Bangkok Glass has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.2,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.1 pp (at 46.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.1,
"max_prob_pct": 46.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.67,
"edge_pp": -0.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 46.3,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bangkok United",
"market_prob_pct": 46.97,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.2,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.21,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.01,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.53,
"edge_pp": -0.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bangkok Glass",
"market_prob_pct": 23.02,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Bangkok Glass \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bangkok United (47.0%).",
"Bangkok Glass odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.0%, 5/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Bangkok United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.95,
"closing_odds": 3.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.95,
"entry_odds": 3.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 76h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Bangkok Glass (3.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.08",
"3.69",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.98 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 76h 23m",
"pick_team": "Bangkok Glass",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.98"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
4.08,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,15.7",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Bangkok Glass",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Bangkok Glass",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Bangkok Glass",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Bangkok Glass",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bangkok-glass",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bangkok Glass",
"away_team_id": 2769,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2769.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bangkok Glass",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Bangkok Glass",
"away_team_public_id": "1hqojBcYFXEht4",
"away_team_slug": "bangkok-glass",
"country_code": "TH",
"country_display_name": "Thailand",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/th.svg",
"country_id": 153,
"country_name": "Thailand",
"fixture_id": 1598035,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Thailand",
"home_team_display_name": "Bangkok United",
"home_team_id": 2770,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2770.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bangkok United",
"home_team_public_id": "0lstKXkOwkJeJa",
"home_team_slug": "bangkok-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bangkok-united",
"league_country": "Thailand",
"league_country_display": "Thailand",
"league_display_name": "Liga Thai 1",
"league_id": 296,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/296.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Thai 1",
"league_public_id": "2fmfFNhbh4BRzH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 12:00:00",
"public_id": "5i4I728B5b6nDc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rangsit",
"venue_name": "Thammasat Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1983,
"best_odd": 4.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.2302,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2302,
"draw": 0.3001,
"home": 0.4697
},
"model_prob": 0.2247,
"p_final": 0.2291
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2944,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0493,
"implied_prob": 0.3001,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2302,
"draw": 0.3001,
"home": 0.4697
},
"model_prob": 0.3124,
"p_final": 0.3037
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4454,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.4697,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2302,
"draw": 0.3001,
"home": 0.4697
},
"model_prob": 0.4629,
"p_final": 0.4666
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.08,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.0833,
"implied_prob": 0.2451,
"model_prob": 0.2247
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": -0.007,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.3124
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.0742,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.4629
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2905,
"alpha_yes": 0.3195,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1108,
"edge_yes": -0.1108,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1889,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0242,
"ev_yes": -0.2267,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1509,
"implied_no": 0.4422,
"implied_yes": 0.5578,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2905,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": -0.0242,
"implied_prob": 0.4396,
"model_prob": 0.553,
"p_final": 0.4726
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3195,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.1509,
"implied_prob": 0.5604,
"model_prob": 0.447,
"p_final": 0.5242
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4726,
"p_final_yes": 0.5242,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3026,
"alpha_under": 0.2751,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.94,
"edge_over": -0.1419,
"edge_under": 0.1419,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3106,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1555,
"ev_under": 0.234,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0038,
"implied_over": 0.5249,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5257,
"implied_under": 0.4751,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4743,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3026,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0432,
"ev": -0.1555,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"p_final": 0.4826
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2751,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": -0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
"model_prob": 0.617,
"p_final": 0.5135
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4826,
"p_final_under": 0.5135,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.22,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.234,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.234,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.234,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bangkok United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.234,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.234,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bangkok United at 46.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bangkok United as the value side (46.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bangkok United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bangkok United).",
"Decision strength: 8.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0667,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4697,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4629,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0742,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.48"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.48
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.447,
"draw_prob": 0.3124,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4629,
"over_prob": 0.383,
"total_xg": 2.22,
"under_prob": 0.617,
"xg_diff": 0.48
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.4697,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4629,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bangkok United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2905,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0329,
"market_prob": 0.4396,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.553,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2905,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": -0.0242,
"implied_prob": 0.4396,
"model_prob": 0.553,
"p_final": 0.4726
},
"p_final": 0.4726,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0242,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3195,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.1509,
"implied_prob": 0.5604,
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}
},
"edge": 0.1108,
"ev": 0.1889,
"implied_prob": 0.4422,
"model_prob": 0.553,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2751,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0393,
"market_prob": 0.4743,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.617,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3026,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0432,
"ev": -0.1555,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"p_final": 0.4826
},
"p_final": 0.5135,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0038,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2751,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": -0.0038,
"implied_prob": 0.4743,
"model_prob": 0.617,
"p_final": 0.5135
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1419,
"ev": 0.234,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"model_prob": 0.617,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1598035,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.234,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2247,
"draw": 0.3124,
"home": 0.4629
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.234,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.617,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.234,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.617,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bangkok Glass",
"home": "Bangkok United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.104462,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1889,
"implied_prob": 0.4422,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.553,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0667,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4697,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4629,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0742,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1598035,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T12:02:08.331076+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Thai 1 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Rayong FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Uthai Thani | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Prachuap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Bangkok United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Port FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Ayutthaya FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Bangkok Glass | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Ratchaburi | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Chiangrai United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Pattani | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Sukhothai FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Sisaket United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Rasi Salai United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Lamphun Warrior | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uthai Thani | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Bangkok United | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Buriram United | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Rayong FC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Port FC | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Bangkok Glass | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Prachuap | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Rasi Salai United | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Ratchaburi | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Sisaket United | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
