AI correctly predicted the Poole Town win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Poole Town Poole Town ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havant & Waterlooville | 34.7% | 38.7% | -4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.3% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Poole Town | 35.6% | 34.0% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Poole Town win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Poole Town win 0–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Havant & Waterlooville 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Poole Town 35.6%
- xG · Havant & Waterlooville 1.29 — Poole Town 1.31
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Havant & Waterlooville 2.34 · Draw 3.32 · Poole Town 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · Havant & Waterlooville 38.7% · Draw 27.3% · Poole Town 34.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Havant & Waterlooville 2.34 · Draw 3.32 · Poole Town 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · Havant & Waterlooville 38.7% · Draw 27.3% · Poole Town 34.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Poole Town win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
28/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.34
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Poole Town win · Havant & Waterlooville 0–1 Poole Town
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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},
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],
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"hero_mode": "default",
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"tone": "warn"
}
],
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"primary": {
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"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
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"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0764,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0533,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.99,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Poole Town at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Poole Town as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Poole Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0764,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0533,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville 1.29 xG vs Poole Town 1.31 \u2192 Poole Town 35.6%",
"Market: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville ~34.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Poole Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.99,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"market_prob": 38.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.38,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Poole Town",
"market_prob": 34.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.34,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.34,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.04,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.04,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"market_prob_pct": 38.69,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Poole Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville 1.29 xG vs Poole Town 1.31 \u2192 Poole Town 35.6%",
"Market: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville ~34.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Poole Town with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.99,
"hero_label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Havant \u0026 Waterlooville.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Havant \u0026 Waterlooville."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Havant \u0026 Waterlooville (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Havant \u0026 Waterlooville."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.99,
"edge_pp": -3.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"market_prob_pct": 38.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.38,
"edge_pp": 2.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.6,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Poole Town",
"market_prob_pct": 34.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Havant \u0026 Waterlooville.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Havant \u0026 Waterlooville (34.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Poole Town, Market \u2192 Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.74,
"closing_odds": 2.34,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.74,
"entry_odds": 2.34,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "poole-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Poole Town",
"away_team_id": 7738,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7738.webp",
"away_team_name": "Poole Town",
"away_team_public_id": "4Xv0qAoRcRjKow",
"away_team_slug": "poole-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1597339,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"home_team_id": 1843,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1843.webp",
"home_team_name": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"home_team_public_id": "40npbopE5BRjDM",
"home_team_slug": "havant-wville",
"ht.home_team_slug": "havant-wville",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan",
"league_id": 60,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/60.webp",
"league_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan",
"league_public_id": "4cMIwTdSTRAPR7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4SauSyokLv2zwC",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4395,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0764,
"implied_prob": 0.3404,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3404,
"draw": 0.2727,
"home": 0.3869
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3472
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2892,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0715,
"implied_prob": 0.2727,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3404,
"draw": 0.2727,
"home": 0.3869
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2797
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4232,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1339,
"implied_prob": 0.3869,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3404,
"draw": 0.2727,
"home": 0.3869
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3701
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.0532,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": -0.0044,
"ev": -0.0147,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": -0.0801,
"ev": -0.1874,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1605,
"alpha_yes": 0.2207,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0704,
"edge_yes": -0.0704,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1148,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0591,
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1103,
"implied_no": 0.3846,
"implied_yes": 0.6154,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1605,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0591,
"implied_prob": 0.3829,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3945
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2207,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1103,
"implied_prob": 0.6171,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6012
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3945,
"p_final_yes": 0.6012,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2122,
"alpha_under": 0.1929,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.17,
"edge_over": -0.0934,
"edge_under": 0.0934,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1145,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0425,
"implied_over": 0.5754,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5771,
"implied_under": 0.4246,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4229,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4412
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5569,
"p_final_under": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Poole Town at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Poole Town as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Poole Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Havant \u0026 Waterlooville, but the model still strongly favours Poole Town.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0764,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0533,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0764,
"implied_prob": 0.3404,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Poole Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1605,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.3829,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1605,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0591,
"implied_prob": 0.3829,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3945
},
"p_final": 0.3945,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0591,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2207,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1103,
"implied_prob": 0.6171,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6012
}
},
"edge": 0.0704,
"ev": 0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.4229,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2122,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.5771,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5569
},
"p_final": 0.4412,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0425,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1929,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4229,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4412
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0934,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1597339,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Poole Town",
"home": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052234,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0764,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37593984962406013,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0533,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597339,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:12:58.119373+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Havant & Waterlooville & Poole Town!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Bath City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Taunton Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Poole Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Yate Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Sholing | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 21 | Malvern Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 19 |
| 2 | Taunton Town | 8 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 12 |
| 3 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Uxbridge | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Frome Town | 8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Malvern Town | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 |
| 10 | Bath City | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Gloucester City | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Poole Town | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Sholing | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| 21 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 22 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
